CIHS – Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies

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Disruption In World Order Guaranteed!
Geopolitics United States
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Disruption in World Order Guaranteed!

Donald Trump’s second term may not allow ‘business as usual’ approach to global affairs given underpinnings of ‘Make America Great Again’ thrust. K.A.Badarinath Across continents one big question that’s seriously debated and pored over is what’s in store during second term of President Donald Trump that would kick off in three weeks from now. Jokes, boardroom banter, hate, repulsion to cult following notwithstanding, Donald John Trump cannot be ignored as President United States of America (USA) given the landslide mandate that Americans have given him. One can rest be assured, he would make next four years very eventful at Oval Office after having gained serious insights into functioning of the Presidential role in his first term that ended in turbulence. Trump would not let the world forget in a hurry that he’s the only President who has been returned to White House after eviction from White House after Grover Cleveland several decades ago. Hence, it’s not surprising that from Africa, Asia, Europe to West Asia, tongues have begun to wag on state of play with staunch and determined Republican President at the hot seat in White House. But, what can easily be predicted is pursuit of aggressive ‘America First’ and ‘Make America Great Again’ that would dominate Trump Presidency on all fronts, be it economy, investment and trade, civilizational ties, diplomatic engagements, wars and conflicts in which US has direct or indirect linkages. Ultra nationalist sentiment of Western variety will have a sway during Trump regime within and beyond American borders. Expressive articulation of America First and Make America Great Again cannot be missed. A thorough review of all engagements including Israel, Ukraine and other conflict zones would become a priority for President Trump. And, rogue states like Pakistan are expected to face big time shove if Trump has his way. China may top Trump agenda with 50 per cent tariffs proposed on all exports to United States to rebalance bilateral trade. These levies would turn as many products non-competitive forcing Bejing to rethink its export strategy using third country labels to overcome the proposed tariff barriers. Bharat along with other BRICS member countries have already been put on alert as Trump has threatened with 100 per cent tariffs if the big developing countries went ahead with a common currency regime rivalling the American dollar. ‘De-dollarization’ move apart, Bharat may have to revisit its list of 30 US goods identified in 2018 and approached World Trade Organization for levying retaliatory tariffs on US. Also, sticky issues like Gautam Adani’s case in American courts and reported life bid on Khalistani terrorist Gurupatwant Singh Pannun will have to be dealt with deftly. Of late, growing anti-Bharat sentiment being belted out by American media outlets especially following Sriram Krishnan’s appointment as advisor on artificial intelligence to Trump may have to be addressed. Future of H1B work visas, US citizenship to children of such visas has turned absolutely uncertain. President Trump may have to take a call on this key issue. On two occasions in his first term, Trump had referred to 50 per cent restrictive duties on Harley Davidson motorcycles by Bharat. Even after his re-election in recent weeks, President-elect Trump described Bharat as ‘tariff king’. He conveniently chose to not refer to hiked tariffs on Indian steel and metallic products exports by him in his first term. Though the volume and value of defence exports to US are modest at US $ 1.5 billion, they may come under scanner of quixotic Trump. There are several such Indian export items that may be put to scrutiny by new regime. No wonder, Prime Minister Narendra Modi despatched his foreign minister Subramanyam Jaishankar to US in preparation for bilateral engagement with the ‘Don’. Modi who shares personal rapport with Donald Trump is expected to find a way out given that Indian investors are waiting in the wings to take larger positions – directly or indirectly — in US markets. President Trump would prioritize huge cuts in ‘federal spending’ of ‘non-essential’ and ‘non-strategic’ expenses by his government given the burgeoning long term deficits that US has piled up over years. Every dollar spent may be accounted for especially with technology czars like Elon Musk breathing down the neck pushing for ‘government efficiency’ on resources. Under President Trump, ‘radical left lunatics’ may get a big bashing on the butt that would eventually inflict damage on support structures for democrats. These Left hardliners have been peddling narratives that ‘liberal, open democratic character’ of US was under threat once the ‘Don’s’ second term began in 2025. Narrative battles in US between Left leaning ‘self-proclaimed’ liberals and Republicans under Donald Trump are expected to intensify further. Basically, ‘business as usual’ may not be possible with Donald Trump. Be it Canada, Panama, Greenland, Syria or elsewhere, there’s bound to be restlessness in Republican White House demanding a big changeover. Donald Trump seeking to turn Canada into 51st state of US sent shivers for Justin Trudeau who’s fighting with his back to the wall seeking re-election later next year. Here again, Trump demanded lowering of tariffs and in return offered US security cover to Canadians as fifty first state. Similarly, Panama was put on notice by Donald Trump who made two significant points from his perspective. One, the Panama Canal was being illegally controlled by Chinese people liberation army and the tariffs on movement of American goods were too huge that warranted a rollback. Thirdly, Donald Trump may have hit a raw nerve when he sought American pound of flesh in administration of resources-rich Greenland. Given that European Union has effective control on Greenland, Brussels may not take Trump’s comments rather lightly and forced to engage with him on the issue apart from legal migration and infiltration across US and EU member countries. Donald Trump may like to leave his imprint as a global leader in his four-year regime that’s bound to be eventful and has the potential to change face of global engagement. (Author is Director & Chief Executive at

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Business Economy Media
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Ajay Banga, right man for the moment

Climate finance, funding private entrepreneurship, rebuilding war-torn Ukraine apart from democratizing World Bank should be priority K.A.Badarinath Ajaypal Singh Banga, nominee of US President Joe Biden to head the multi-lateral World Bank, has his task cut out. Banga may not turn out to be a traditional banker in the sense like many of his predecessors. Nor does he have experience of the US treasury like the present incumbent David Robert Malpass who would complete his term by June end. But Ajay Banga, 63 and son of a former Indian Army officer has all the credentials to flaunt and take charge of the World Bank at a very crucial juncture on geo-political front and the world of finance, banking and markets. God willing and other stakeholders support, Banga will head the bank beginning July 1 this year. Banga does not mince words to say that he’s ‘made in India’ referring to his modest Indian origins. He’s for long been poster boy of the Wall Street and a brilliant mind who as a naturalized US citizen is considered ‘compassionate banker par excellence’ by the democratic White House. His eventful innings at Master Card, Citibank, KFC, Pizza Hut and Nestle provider the requisite experience to lead the World Bank that’s considered ‘a big boys club’ which is either inaccessible or provides limited linkages to the least developed or developing small economies. Democratizing leviathan World Bank may be a daunting task for even Banga who admits to making ‘easy friends’ all over. Biggest challenge may come from the most powerful industrial countries that are unwilling to let go of their strangle hold on this Bretton Woods institution of 1944 vintage which came into being as post-world war workhorse. Turning the World Bank relevant and expanding its footprint in today’s world of development finance sans apprehensions by humanity is a challenge which Banga may have to face once he occupies the corner room. Providing ‘humane development face’ to the institution largely regarded rudderless and seen as one that pushes the countries it engages into unsustainable indebtedness is yet another challenge. Reforms at World Bank that progressed at sluggish pace or rather not taken off must be hastened. These reforms and World Bank’s governance must get aligned to current realities where large developing countries like India emerged with formidable economic strength and on way to achieve $5 trillion size. Both voting rights and actual shareholding in World Bank institutions like IBRD, IDA, MIGA and IFC must reflect the change agent that the organization aspires to achieve lifting itself over narrow powerful coteries. India may not be the only country that would look for better foothold and say in World Bank’s governance. Countries like South Africa and Brazil have periodically aired their grievances. Toughest nut to crack for Banga would be to deny US the veto vote on World Bank board thereby delinking shareholding from vote share. Reformed World Bank should kick off restructuring in the other multilateral organization, International Monetary Fund (IMF). Yet another vintage institution that’s incorrigible and invokes more of fear and scare for countries seeking restructuring support rather than turning a helping hand without hassles. Litmus test for Ajay Banga will be when the war torn Ukraine seeks the support of World Bank and IMF to rebuild itself after having engaged in a conflict with Russia. Non-NATO forces are bound to resist World Bank support to Ukraine that may try and pick up pieces to build a new country. In case Russian side continues to veto proposals for ending the conflict, then rebuilding Ukraine may turn that much difficult as well. Committing World Bank to climate finance for countries that seek to go full throttle in energy transition and address climate change issues is something that Ajay Banga can take lead in. Financing technology development, transfers and providing cost-effective funds to facilitate this transition is something Banga can push big time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi flagged the issue with finance ministers and central bank governors from G-20 group that met in Bengaluru recently. Countries like India will alone need a whopping $2.5 trillion in green finance to achieve national development goals and another $ 10 trillion by 2070 to achieve net zero emissions. Climate finance is huge business that cannot be foregone by World Bank under Ajay Banga. And, he has to gear up to meet the opportunity and challenges to finance greening of economies. Given his inroads into corporate world and private equity markets, evolving IFC as the largest financing avenue for both private sector debt and equity can be enlisted as a priority. (author is Director & Chief Executive at New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

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