CIHS – Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies

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Modi Magic for Middle Class Works Wonders

Modi Magic for Middle Class Works Wonders

Consumption led growth, deregulation & reforms coupled with political and economic consolidation is what the budget attempts smartly! K.A.Badarinath Prime Minister Narendra Modi led government’s first full budget in its third term has deftly managed numbers, stuck to fiscal prudence & consolidation glide path, fiscal deficit reined in, borrowings manageable and put the economy on a consumption overdrive by providing huge tax relief of Rs 102660 crore. The vast middle class taxpayers who are also biggest consumers of goods and services will dance home with the goodies provided by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman that presented her eighth consecutive budget for the Modi government on Saturday. Relief in personal income tax through rejig in both slabs and rates is the highest provided by any government in post-independence history of Bharat. And, there’s a big political message as well. Stick to the right of centre BJP-led National Democratic Alliance without drifting away. And, you will only be happy. This message is particularly important after Prime Minister Modi led alliance managed a wafer thin majority in Lok Sabha during last general elections. Also, Prime Minister Modi, BJP and NDA seem to be in no mood to let up the consolidation drive undertaken in assembly elections of Maharastra, Haryana and elsewhere post-Lok Sabha elections in June 2024. Also, in National Capital Region, Delhi’s assembly elections set for February 5, BJP has targeted the middle-class voters who are also taxpayers in a big way There may be naysayers that point fingers at huge tax exemptions and relief and Nirmala Sitharaman’s strategy to spend Rs 50.65 lakh crore to perk up growth in medium term beyond seven per cent in especially challenging conditions internationally. She has definitely not announced any ‘run away’ spending but put money where its seriously required to avoid the much feared ‘middle income trap’, keep the economy competitive, combative and at the same time expand smartly. Putting more than Rs 100,000 crore in hands of taxpayers, rewarding them handsomely for their contribution and thereby perk up consumption demand is to take economic growth way beyond 6.3 – 6.8 per cent projected in economic survey presented on Friday. Projected fiscal deficit at 4.4 per cent for 2025-26 over 4.8 per cent in current fiscal is achievable given buoyancy in tax receipts and reflects government’s steadfast commitment to consolidation, limit borrowings and shift big to infrastructure spending on capital account at Rs 15.48 lakh crore that translates to over 3.1 per cent of GDP. Borrowings would be limited at Rs 11,53,834 crore next fiscal to actual Rs 11,62,678 crore in the year ending March 31, 2025. Over next one year beginning April 1, 2025, the country’s gross domestic product in actual terms would expand to Rs 356,97,923 crore as against Rs 324,11,406 crore projected for 2024-25. Deregulation and fresh bout of reforms as an economic strategy – both policy side and taxation – recommended in Economic Survey have been accepted by Modi government. Taking stock of regulations and lifting controls has been corner stone of government’s liberalization programme when the economic liberalization was fine-tuned by Atal Bihari Vajpayee regime two decades back. Fresh overtures to reform, deregulate and thereby liberalize the economy is something Modi government would pursue to realize its full potential as it readies the journey to ‘developed nation’ status free from poverty by 2047. Focusing on agriculture, investments, micro, small & medium enterprises (MSMES) apart from exports as four growth engines is refreshing and a departure from traditional ways of looking at four economic pillars. At a time when assorted Left leaning farmers groups hit the ground seeking legal guarantee for minimum support prices (MSP) for their produce, Modi government has presented a different model to make farming a profitable enterprise, push up rural prosperity and take the famed Bharat growth story to hinterlands. Apart from sprucing up agricultural credit, mission for pulses, cotton, developing 100 agriculture-based districts, Makhana mission and initiative for vegetables and fruits is noteworthy.  Focusing on Micro, small and medium enterprises as growth engine is something that will gel well with the BJP’s core constituency of small businesses. And, it makes eminent sense to take these over 4.5 crore small enterprises up the value chain and align them to export markets to deliver both goods and services. Fund of Funds for start-ups, prioritizing footwear, leather and toys, extending first time entrepreneurship to five lakh scheduled caste and tribes women and ‘make in India’ for the world schemes would expand the landscape of these enterprises that have become hallmark of Bharat’s industry in last ten-odd years. Announcement on national manufacturing mission for MSMEs is something that will lead to consolidation of these tiny enterprises but also provide framework for nurturing and embellishing their operations in long term. The two growth engines that are significant are investments and exports given global uncertainties especially in Europe, return of Donald Trump as American President, China and Russia getting closer on geo-political front. Setting up an omnibus export mission, bringing the MSMEs to put them on export mode and involving banks, financial institutions is a pragmatic way of tiding over the global uncertainties especially in wake of ‘Make America Great Again’ and ‘Make Europe Great Again campaigns. Setting up global capability centres in different states and bharat trade net for easing documentation related issues for exporters would only add to ease of exporting Bharat’s goods and services to global consumers. Government led investments in infrastructure, mobilizing global resources for large signature projects would trigger private and foreign funds commitment to both green field and expansion projects. One big opportunity for both private and foreign players would be 100 Gw nuclear power projects that would eventually replace the heavily polluting coal-fired power plants. Nuclear mission will provide an opportunity for foreign players apart from putting together a regulatory framework given that the sector is being opened up for first time. For the first time in last few years, Bharat has opened the insurance sector wider for foreign investments with 100 per cent

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Go Big, Go Bold!

Go Big, Go Bold!

Transactional Trump, EU policy recast, realignment of global forces with China & Russia moving closer may cast a long shadow on Modi government’s eleventh year budget. K.A.Badarinath Post-elections in United States, Donald J Trump assuming charge as American President coupled with realignment of forces globally will weigh-in on Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman as she readies to present her eighth federal budget in a row this Saturday. Nirmala Sitharaman may have to take on board Trump’s constant haggling that Bharat was a high tariff destination for American goods. More importantly, clubbing Brazil and Bharat with China for imposing high tariffs as a way to balance trade may be on top of the mind. A deficit of $ 32 billion that US have with India in bilateral trade of US $ 118 billion during 2024 is the big trigger for ‘transactional’ Trump who is expected to push hard for ‘rebalancing’ transactions. In fact, this is the biggest factor for Trump to threaten across the board tariff of over 2.5 per cent on all Indian goods, services and push for sale of defence equipment. A possible way out may be found when Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Trump during his France visit next month. This apart, what finance minister Sitharaman would consider is Commerce Ministry analysis on all economic issues that Trump talked about at his inauguration as President on January 20 and virtual address at Davos World Economic Forum the day after. In fact, this will easily go into Finance Minister Sitharaman’s tabulations on oil prices, US $ and Indian rupee pricing apart from her fiscal deficit projections that are expected to be in line with her announcement in the last budget a couple of months back. In line with ‘Make America Great Again’ campaign of Donald Trump, European Union pushing for ‘Make Europe Great Again’ line may have its bearing on developing large economies like Bharat, Brazil, South Africa etc. The 27-nation block and Trump may have taken a leaf out of Prime Minister Modi’s “India First” or “Bharat First” campaign that led to mobilization of Hindutva or Bharatiya forces at political level as well as socio-economic front. Though European Commission President Ursula Vonder Leyen holds that Europe is already great, she commissioned a report on union’s competitiveness from Mario Draghi to provide a firm roadmap to sustain healthy growth rates over next 25 years. This reassessment will definitely have its impact on exporters from Asia like India that’s just becoming a player to reckon with both in investments and trade. Serious conversations within European Union end to her dominance in automobiles, emergence of China as a big player in automobiles as well as artificial intelligence, non-availability or limited access to cost-effective oil from Russia will have to be factored by Nirmala Sitharaman as she goes about fine-tuning Bharat’s roadmap to 2047. Union budget is definitely a big occasion to look back, assess and work on futuristic economic policy framework in the wake of global realignment of force, China and Russia moving closer, big debate on capitalism versus communism, conservatives to liberals, Left of centre to far right politics within and outside the country. Narendra Modi government as one can recollect have smartly deployed every penny to win hearts of 1.4 billion people in last eleven years. Even without majority seats in Lok Sabha on its own during last June elections, Modi and his economic policy making team led by Nirmala Sitharaman has not diminished or deviated one wee bit. This eleventh-year budget of BJP-led NDA will be no different. Fiscal consolidation, prudence in spending, continuation of its well laid out taxation policy and spreading the wings to cover more and more vulnerable sections in the ambit of famed Bharat ‘growth story’ will clearly be visible in vision and action. Expanding scope of highly successful Production Linked Incentives (PLI) scheme hitherto introduced in 2020 would not only expand industrial base, create new jobs opportunities but also offer an excellent platform for foreign investors. Till date about Rs. 1.32 lakh crores foreign investment (US$ 16 billion) have been realized thereby leading to a massive jump in manufacturing output at Rs. 10.90 lakh crore (US$ 130 billion). Over 850,000 jobs have been created due to this industrial expansion under the scheme alone. ‘Make in India’ and ‘Make for the World’ is a great policy liner that has stood test of times for Modi government. Matrix for the scheme where foreign and domestic investors plough-in has to be expanded across sectors especially defence and security to exploit the potential for investments, technology and jobs creation. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will have to announce Modi government’s policy framework to manage Artificial Intelligence (AI) like DeepSake, Qwen developed by China with its alignment to Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Already, there are enough indications that AI Compute Facility that secured 18,000 GPUs will drive the artificial intelligence initiative that’s ‘open sourced, application focused and flexible’. Data privacy and data localization policy may have to be dovetailed to ensure that our artificial intelligence initiative is in sync with the country’s diverse needs. Quick investments and development of ‘generative’ artificial intelligence networks may have to be prioritized by Modi government and the dedicated mission may have to develop a framework to deal with the issues. Nirmala Sitharaman may have to opt for policy reforms to push the pedal on governance that eases ‘way of living’ and enhances ‘living standards’ for people in rural and semi-urban areas. Bringing equivalent focus on middle and lower-middle class apart from most vulnerable sections into the ambit of budget and economic policy making will also be a saleable preposition for the finance minister. Given the kind of direct cash benefits announced in different states as part of competitive political slugfest may have to be addressed immediately to nourish a healthy work culture to enhance productivity in industry, agriculture, services and allied areas. From free power, heavily subsidised gas to cash offers, both opposition parties and ruling NDA partners have gone for the kill

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