Donald Trump’s second term may not allow ‘business as usual’ approach to global affairs given underpinnings of ‘Make America Great Again’ thrust.
K.A.Badarinath
Across continents one big question that’s seriously debated and pored over is what’s in store during second term of President Donald Trump that would kick off in three weeks from now.
Jokes, boardroom banter, hate, repulsion to cult following notwithstanding, Donald John Trump cannot be ignored as President United States of America (USA) given the landslide mandate that Americans have given him.
One can rest be assured, he would make next four years very eventful at Oval Office after having gained serious insights into functioning of the Presidential role in his first term that ended in turbulence.
Trump would not let the world forget in a hurry that he’s the only President who has been returned to White House after eviction from White House after Grover Cleveland several decades ago.
Hence, it’s not surprising that from Africa, Asia, Europe to West Asia, tongues have begun to wag on state of play with staunch and determined Republican President at the hot seat in White House.
But, what can easily be predicted is pursuit of aggressive ‘America First’ and ‘Make America Great Again’ that would dominate Trump Presidency on all fronts, be it economy, investment and trade, civilizational ties, diplomatic engagements, wars and conflicts in which US has direct or indirect linkages.
Ultra nationalist sentiment of Western variety will have a sway during Trump regime within and beyond American borders. Expressive articulation of America First and Make America Great Again cannot be missed.
A thorough review of all engagements including Israel, Ukraine and other conflict zones would become a priority for President Trump. And, rogue states like Pakistan are expected to face big time shove if Trump has his way.
China may top Trump agenda with 50 per cent tariffs proposed on all exports to United States to rebalance bilateral trade. These levies would turn as many products non-competitive forcing Bejing to rethink its export strategy using third country labels to overcome the proposed tariff barriers.
Bharat along with other BRICS member countries have already been put on alert as Trump has threatened with 100 per cent tariffs if the big developing countries went ahead with a common currency regime rivalling the American dollar.
‘De-dollarization’ move apart, Bharat may have to revisit its list of 30 US goods identified in 2018 and approached World Trade Organization for levying retaliatory tariffs on US. Also, sticky issues like Gautam Adani’s case in American courts and reported life bid on Khalistani terrorist Gurupatwant Singh Pannun will have to be dealt with deftly.
Of late, growing anti-Bharat sentiment being belted out by American media outlets especially following Sriram Krishnan’s appointment as advisor on artificial intelligence to Trump may have to be addressed. Future of H1B work visas, US citizenship to children of such visas has turned absolutely uncertain. President Trump may have to take a call on this key issue.
On two occasions in his first term, Trump had referred to 50 per cent restrictive duties on Harley Davidson motorcycles by Bharat. Even after his re-election in recent weeks, President-elect Trump described Bharat as ‘tariff king’. He conveniently chose to not refer to hiked tariffs on Indian steel and metallic products exports by him in his first term.
Though the volume and value of defence exports to US are modest at US $ 1.5 billion, they may come under scanner of quixotic Trump. There are several such Indian export items that may be put to scrutiny by new regime.
No wonder, Prime Minister Narendra Modi despatched his foreign minister Subramanyam Jaishankar to US in preparation for bilateral engagement with the ‘Don’. Modi who shares personal rapport with Donald Trump is expected to find a way out given that Indian investors are waiting in the wings to take larger positions – directly or indirectly — in US markets.
President Trump would prioritize huge cuts in ‘federal spending’ of ‘non-essential’ and ‘non-strategic’ expenses by his government given the burgeoning long term deficits that US has piled up over years.
Every dollar spent may be accounted for especially with technology czars like Elon Musk breathing down the neck pushing for ‘government efficiency’ on resources.
Under President Trump, ‘radical left lunatics’ may get a big bashing on the butt that would eventually inflict damage on support structures for democrats. These Left hardliners have been peddling narratives that ‘liberal, open democratic character’ of US was under threat once the ‘Don’s’ second term began in 2025. Narrative battles in US between Left leaning ‘self-proclaimed’ liberals and Republicans under Donald Trump are expected to intensify further.
Basically, ‘business as usual’ may not be possible with Donald Trump. Be it Canada, Panama, Greenland, Syria or elsewhere, there’s bound to be restlessness in Republican White House demanding a big changeover. Donald Trump seeking to turn Canada into 51st state of US sent shivers for Justin Trudeau who’s fighting with his back to the wall seeking re-election later next year. Here again, Trump demanded lowering of tariffs and in return offered US security cover to Canadians as fifty first state.
Similarly, Panama was put on notice by Donald Trump who made two significant points from his perspective. One, the Panama Canal was being illegally controlled by Chinese people liberation army and the tariffs on movement of American goods were too huge that warranted a rollback.
Thirdly, Donald Trump may have hit a raw nerve when he sought American pound of flesh in administration of resources-rich Greenland. Given that European Union has effective control on Greenland, Brussels may not take Trump’s comments rather lightly and forced to engage with him on the issue apart from legal migration and infiltration across US and EU member countries.
Donald Trump may like to leave his imprint as a global leader in his four-year regime that’s bound to be eventful and has the potential to change face of global engagement.
(Author is Director & Chief Executive at non-partisan think tank based in New Delhi, Centre for Integrated and Holistic studies)
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