N. C. Bipindra
The transition in the US administration was completed on January 20 with Donald Trump taking over as the President for the second time. But his arrival at the White House has triggered anxiety worldwide, both among US allies and rivals in geopolitics.
As the axiom goes, change is the only constant. Donald Trump has voiced a change in the US policy on all matters the world is concerned about. Soon after assuming office, Trump began implementing the policy directions he pushed during the presidential campaign.In the past few days, Trump has signed executive orders that could impact US ties with friends and rivals in Europe and Asia.
Among his first decisions, Trump announced withdrawal from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Paris Accords on Climate Change. The U.S. has been a member of the WHO since its formation in 1948. Trump’s order said the US was leaving WHO for mishandling the COVID-19 pandemic that originated in China and due to its inability to demonstrate independence from the inappropriate political influence of WHO members, an indirect reference to China.
The US has been the largest funder of the WHO contributing 18 percent of the overall budget, which for 2024-25 was US$6.8 billion. Trump has argued that these global initiatives have extracted more pound of flesh from the US than others, particularly castigating WHO for overtly siding with China on global health matters. These moves by Trump could cripple WHO’s capability for intervention in case of a pandemic like the Coronavirus while poorer nations would be forced to fend for themselves in such an existential crisis.The next in the line for his targeted attack could be NATO, which too has been criticised by Trump for too much financial demand it puts on the US for Europe’s security and protection. In 2024, the US provided the largest share of NATO’s funding, at 15.9 percent, approximately US$567 million.
If the US withdraws funding to NATO, it could immediately dent the security of Ukraine in its war with Russia. Ukraine is a non-NATO nation yet has received huge arms support from NATO nations since the war began in February 2021. The US has provided about US$175 billion in funding for Ukraine to purchase arms from NATO nations for its war with Russia. Trump has repeatedly stated in his poll campaign that he would end the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a day, and his plan seems to be withdrawing funding to Ukraine’s war effort and announcing that Ukraine shall not be part of NATO, a key bone of contention for Russia to inflict the war on Kyiv in “self-defense.”
If Trump indeed goes ahead and pulls out of NATO funding, Volodymyr Zelensky would be the loser, and Vladimir Putin would have reasons to rejoice. However, this is a political tightrope that Trump should be willing to walk, as the public sentiment among Americans is more sympathetic towards Ukraine than Russia. Trump’s presidency impact is already visible in West Asia, where the warring Israel and Hamas in Gaza Strip have struck a ceasefire accord just hours before the transition in the US Administration. Trump has already claimed full credit for this halt in the bloody hostilities between Israelis and Palestinians.
Yet, Trump is likely to favour Israel more in this conflict and has previously expressed full support for the Jews’ right to defend themselves post the October 7 attacks of 2023 by Hamas terrorists. Trump has time and again said that he would dismantle the anti-Jewish elements from US educational institutions and administration, and this doesn’t bode well for those faux supporters of Hamas terrorism and the Wokes inside the US. In the case of China, Trump is expected to pursue a hard line and there are several anti-China hawks among his supporters and administration. There are already talks of tariffs coming China’s way, and an External Revenue Service has been announced to leverage imports to find revenue for the US administration. Already Canada and Mexico are facing the brunt, with several sneaky remarks from Trump of integrating these neighbours as US territory.
The trade war with China is expected to see a rise in the days to come, as so would the hate-hate relations over the Indo-Pacific region, particularly Chinese President Xi Jinping’s obsession with annexing Taiwan. In this regard, the first meeting of Quad Foreign Ministers a day after Trump took office in Washington DC is an indicator and the sentiments expressed in that meeting only buttressed that sentiment. India on the other hand would enjoy a smooth relationship post the administrative transition in the US, with some minor pinpricks such as import tariffs for Indian goods and H1-B visas for its talent pool to find employment in the high-paying market in the US. But the two nations security and defence relations are looking northward.
India is as important to the US as the US is to India. Both nations can’t afford to lose sight of a common enemy in China. As they say, an enemy’s enemy is a friend. And this is truer in geopolitics today than ever. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s friendship with Trump will be a huge positive. Remember the ‘Ab ki Baar, Trump Sarkar’ at Houston in Texas in September 2019, and it will bring a positive outcome for India and the US. India and the US are partners in defending the freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific, and their bilateral naval exercise, Malabar, has been elevated into a Quad nations’ maritime best practices platform to achieve interoperability among their navies.
The direction of their military cooperation is only expected to expand in the next four years, even as the two nations pursue joint development and production of military wares in India through agreements between their military research and development agencies apart from public and private arms companies. India specifically enjoys bipartisan support in the US Congress, with Republicans and Democrats overwhelmingly supporting greater ties, calling New Delhi a natural partner of Washington DC. US Congress has already accorded India the ‘Major Defence Partner’ status with support from all members.
Since 2007, the US has been among the top five arms suppliers to India to meet its defence needs, and equipment such as the Globemaster heavy-lift aircraft, Chinook heavy cargo helicopters, M777 ultra-light howitzers, and Apache armed choppers have come in handy for deployment during the 2020-2024 India-China armed conflict in Ladakh. More such arms support to strengthen Indian defence can be expected in the next four years, as India looks for fifth-generation fighter jets to boost its combat squadron strength of the air force to match the Chinese PLA Air Force capabilities. This bonhomie shall continue under Trump’s presidency, as the two nations join hands to work for secure, prosperous, and capable citizens on either side and the world at large.
(Author is Chairman, Law and Society Alliance, a New Delhi-based think tank and guest columnist with CIHS)
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