Geopolitics Leadership Media Policy Security Technology

Out to Conquer!

Playing right, pursuing human centre policy framework with strategic independence will help Bharat regain its exalted status post G-20! K.A.Badarinath When Walter Russell Mead pointed to emergence of India as a world power after last week’s tremendously successful G-20 summit held under her Presidency, there were enough sneers and jeers from within the country. The learned professor for foreign affairs and humanities at Bard College in New York may have been amused at the way Indian opposition parties’ criticism of G-20 summit in New Delhi that whipped up ‘hundred per cent consensus” declaration. Mead, also a fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship at Hudson Institute was not out of place when he identified emergence of India as a world power as part of three tectonic shifts in global order. The celebrated Wall Street Journal columnist beautifully summed up the post-summit world order as, “India rising, China and Russia seething, Europe shrinking and America dithering…” This is not a solitary view that was available before, during or after the summit. African Union President Azali Assoumani went one step further to state that India has overtaken China as a super power that arrived on the global stage a few years back. Let’s consider Jim O Neill, celebrated economist known for having coined acronym BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) group of developing countries descrition of Prime Minister Narendra Modi being the ‘ clear winner’. Mead, Assoumani and O Neill may have differing views like several others on top global forums that would be relevant or those getting into diminution in medium to long term. Most were however were unanimous on India and Prime Minister Modi making the best out of G-20. And, they do not mince words on what holds out for India. G-7’s waning influence is something that’s written on the wall and one would only be blind not to see it given Europe’s decline and Canada being in irretrievable mess of sorts. BRIC, on the other hand, as visualized by Jim O Neill was different from what the grouping has emerged to be today. South Africa joining the group of large developing countries in 1999 was the first step towards its expanding arc of influence. Its first expansion however happened only last month when six countries were inducted as full members of BRICS turning it into leading to BRICS Plus. On the parallel, G-20 would have been dead and irrelevant in case there was nothing substantive to take home in the ‘New Delhi’ declaration running into 83-paras on a clutch of global issues. G-20 Plus emergence with joining of African Union has rendered this group ‘prima dona’ position in global sweepstakes on economic and development order. With Ukraine war becoming a sticking point in the negotiations, G-20 formally launched itself into realm of geo-political and security issues. This in turn led to expansion of its mandate albeit indirectly. Aging outfits like United Nations and its umbrella of organizations have lost sheen to these emerging stars like the BRICS Plus or G-20 Plus. Given the intransigence to reform, Britten Wood institutions like World Bank and IMF may have to make way for new kids on the block in the development finance space. Fresher organizations like Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), BRICS New Development Bank or proposed outfits for Green Energy financing may take the decades old multi-lateral funding institutions. Democratization of these organizations and reorienting them to finance developing and least developed countries is something Prime Minister Modi has been harping upon. With Western Europe especially Germany, France and Italy losing pole position, it’s no brainer to say that Bharat has taken centre stage in global engagement. Strategic independence in its foreign policy is something that has stood out big especially during last ten years. And, this open and flexible policy framework will work well at least another ten years. Not going the Russian or Western way on Ukraine war is an example to emulate going forward. Getting into one coterie or other is the easiest option that has been set aside by Prime Minister Modi and his point man Subramaniam Jaishankar and national security advisor Ajit Doval. One factor to watch out for is China, its expansionist drive financed by oligarchs close to the country’s communist party and President Xi Jingping’s insatiable urge for complete control within and outside. Over to Bharat! (author is Director & Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated & Holistic Studies, a non-partisan think tank based in New Delhi)

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Bharat pulls it off!

As G-20 President, Bharat achieved the impossible with New Delhi declaration, exclusive economic corridor to rival China, bio-fuel alliance & African Union induction to push for Global South. K.A.Badarinath Off late, the moniker ‘Global South’ resonated in these parts of the world with Bharat pushing for thrust on developing and least developed countries hitherto grouped as G-77. Security analysts in particular were not very gung-ho on having this group as the biggest focus of Indian G-20 Presidency given that the block had China with extreme and expansionist plans. But, if G-20 New Delhi declaration adopted by global leaders on Friday ahead of schedule is any indication, Bharat’s Presidium ambitions, strategy and thrust seems to have worked around ‘very fine balance’. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and tenacity carried the day contrary to western analysts’ summation that New Delhi leaders’ summit was a ‘wash out’ and there would be no ‘declaration’. They pointed to deep divide between Western leaders and China – Russia standing their ground on Ukraine war. Bharat and Modi seems to have achieved virtually the impossible with hundred per cent consensus on 83 paragraphs longish declaration that was approved by Presidents and Prime Ministers. And, Modi hit the gavel signalling a fruitful deal of ‘healing, harmony and hope’. This proved many Western analysts wrong as they seem to have under-estimated Bharat’s leadership, Modi’s affable nature and posturing at G-20 that accounts for 85 per cent economic output and 75 per cent world trade. Several commentators had seen the latest declaration as a ‘climb down’ for the Western powers giving Russia the leeway or letting it off easily on Ukraine. That may not be the case. The US and Europe may have taken a tactical one step backwards while consenting the declaration including key lines on ‘war in Ukraine’. In fact, New Delhi declaration is an extension of what was clinched at Bali in November last year. Finding ground to clinch a ‘declaration’, keep the G-20 relevant and kicking, could be one interpretation. Not having a declaration was perhaps not an option or in the best interest of the global economies that are dangerously struggling to keep afloat in aftermath of Covid 19. Thirdly, the declaration demonstrates Bharat’s heft to move world powers. Fourthly, personal bonding Prime Minister Modi established with world leaders seems to have worked wonders in taking forward an ambitious economic and development agenda that’s inclusive and ambitious. Fourthly, western powers seem to have not lost the message after last minute pull out of Chinese President Xi Jingping from New Delhi summit. In fact, this led to acerbic comments from US President Joe Biden that Beijing had the option of being a ‘spoilsport’. Fifthly, world community especially the Western Europe and US could not have ignored finalizing a roadmap to pressing issues like poverty alleviation, transition to green energy, restructuring debt of several poor countries that have become bankrupt and digital public infrastructure and crypto currencies etc. Sixthly, Bharat stood like a solid rock in balancing countries, groups and blocks aspirations especially the G-7 and BRICS, Russia and China that led to virtual pulling apart of G-20 summit. Seventhly, let’s not forget that China got taste of its own medicine with announcement of Bharat, Middle East, Europe rail and roads spread economic corridor that includes United States. India, US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, France, Germany and Italy heads standing together to announce this huge infrastructure driven economic project is neither insignificant nor symbolic. It rivals the now jinxed Belt and Road initiative of China that pushed several developing countries into bankruptcy under unsustainable debt burden. The project envisages establishing rail, road and under-sea data connectivity lines from Mumbai to Western Europe running through shipping lines to Europe. This direct challenge to China comes at a time Belt and Road Initiative tenth anniversary is being celebrated by Beijing. Interestingly enough, the stakeholders in Bharat, Middle East and EU economic corridor will come up with roadmap for the project in 60-days along with funding plans. Apart from China angle, Bharat may not have to depend on yet another uneasy neighbour, Pakistan to establish over land and under-sea linkages with Europe. In the melee of Ukraine war centric conversation, induction of 55-member African Union into G-20 may have gone off very lightly. But, its significance is too huge to ignore. Bharat playing a key role in bringing African Union on board the coveted club is something to write home about. This is the first time that G-20 got into expansion mode after its formation in 1999. Most importantly, African Union will be a full permanent member of G-20 and equals the status enjoyed exclusively by 27-members European Union block till now. African Union’s induction into G-20 also explains India voicing the ‘Global South’ moniker in recent times. Yet another interesting outcome is setting up of bio-fuels alliance on the lines of International Solar Alliance which provides sharper focus to energy consumption transition especially in transport services and households globally. The 19-countries group is expected to push for shift in environment friendly alternative and environment friendly fuels in an effort to decarbonize economic expansion happening globally. G-20 Presidency, tactical positioning, hard play in diplomacy, soft showcasing of Bharat’s cultural, civilizational and philosophical connect with humanity apart from hard gains made from the leaders’ summit will ring in for long. (Author is Director & Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a New Delhi based non-partisan think tank)

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564

Hindenburg 2.0 Could be a Hit Job!

OCCRP purported ‘expose’ may be intended at destabilizing Indian financial markets, steer political conversations, influence Lok Sabha polls Rohan Giri In recent days, a startling narrative has surfaced pointing to an alleged covert plot to target and destabilize Indian financial markets. An organized network of international entities including financiers like George Soros, Rockefeller Brothers, US and European government agencies alongside Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) seem to have made plans to drive the Indian markets including the stocks into an abyss. This conspiracy supposedly involved self-styled well-funded NGOs, media platforms and foreign actors camouflaged as activists and journalists. The reported expose on the anvil dealing with Indian markets and desi conglomerates has all the markings of infamous short seller Hindenburg that ravaged the Gautam Adani led ports to technology group and thereby disrupting the Indian stock markets. Over US $ 115 billion worth investors wealth got washed out after the ‘damning’ report hit the wires. Christened as Hindenburg 2.0 euphemism for second version of short-seller’s report is seen as meticulously orchestrated campaign after India reported a huge success of its moon-landing mission, Chandrayan-3 that was hailed globally. Earlier, Hindenburg Research, a US-based private entity, came up with a report concerning Gautam Adani, a prominent Indian business tycoon. The aftermath of this report resulted in substantial financial losses for Adani Enterprises and those invested or taken exposure in Indian stocks. At heart of this narrative lies a purported plan to mimic a “Hindenburg 2.0 scenario,” aimed at besmirching India’s developmental journey, exploiting fabricated exposés and manipulating the market for speculative as well as designed gains for a few powerful actors with deep pockets and political linkages. A chronological evaluation of events accentuates the narrative’s evolution that seems to be well designed by actors behind the curtain. OCCRP is the forum through which the second version of Hindenburg report is expected to hit the headlines. A cursory look at OCCRP reveals that it’s funded by US Government, Ford Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers, George Soros’ Open Society Foundation apart from some European governments’ agencies. Source: occrp.org The agenda and biases of many OCCRP supporters are well known and documented extensively. OCCRP association and collaboration with certain governments or groups have raised questions on its possible intent, potential alignment with geopolitical interests. The organization’s controversial connections have sparked concerns on its credibility, objectivity and adherence to ethical standards. OCCRP’s agenda, as suggested by their annual reports and team profiles, hints at financial backing from countries’ agencies with potentially concealed motives. A glaring example lies in their portrayal of Kashmir as an independent state signaling an alignment with forces that seemingly oppose India’s growth. Kashmir’s depiction of being separate from India raises concerns about an agenda that potentially seeks to challenge India’s sovereignty. As an investigative journalism platform, it’s incumbent upon OCCRP to provide accurate, balanced and comprehensive coverage on complex issues like the Kashmir. But the organization failed to meet its responsibility. Source: OCCRP Annual Report 2022 As Drew Sullivan, the co-founder of OCCRP, stated, “Combating a network demands the strength of a network.” Given that OCCRP has a particular agenda apart from what’s espoused, it’s crucial to ascertain affiliations of this organization in Indian context as well. Overseeing the operations in South Asia is Anand Mangnale who masquerades as regional editor. Prior to his association with OCCRP, Mangnale was co-founder and director of online crowd funding platform, Our Democracy. Source: occrp.org To begin with, in December 2017, this entity, ‘Our Democracy’ initiated its crowd funding election campaign. The campaign was tailored for Jignesh Mevani, an activist and advocate of Left ideology. Notably, Mevani was an independent candidate for the Banaskantha constituency in the Gujarat assembly elections. Kanhaiya Kumar from Communist Party of Indija and Atishi from Aam Aadmi Party were also beneficiaries of ‘Our Democracy’ funding programme. Anand Mangnale managed to mobilize Rs 70 lakh for Kanhaiya Kumar’s campaign wasRs 70 lakh. Similarly, Atishi’s campaign was also supported with substantial funds. Prior to launch of ‘Our Democracy’ platform, Anand Manganale and his associate Bilal Zaidi collaboratively established a venture named Crowdnewsing. This platform was purportedly a journalistic endeavour. At the height of unrest at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi during January 2020, Anand Manganale managed to infiltrate a WhatsApp group identified as “Friends of RSS,” associated with right-wing sentiments. He immediately took a screenshot to share contents of this group, detailing ongoing events with fellow left-wing activists and leaders to fuel the rioting by latter. Anand Manglani’s actions came to light when journalist-activist Barkha Dutt shared a screenshot on the social media platform “x” (formerly known as Twitter). The screenshot unveiled ongoing conversation within the whatsapp group. Anand Mangnale used this mobile number when he worked with the opposition party, Indian National Congress (INC) for their crowd funding campaign. Given the backdrop, those involved, funding and network of OCCRP, one can offer a plausible insight to possible underlying intentions, motive and potential biases behind the talk of a ‘big expose’ by the organization. Purported report may also be seen in the light of Lok Sabha elections scheduled to be held within the next one year. Emergence of Hindenburg 2.0 narrative can also be construed as a politically motivated manoeuvre to influence the electoral outcomes or at least influence the conversations in run up to the polls. (author is operations manager at Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a non-partisan think tank based in New Delhi)

Economy Geopolitics Policy Security

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Indian elephant outpaces Chinese Dragon

Beijing’s ambivalence came to fore at BRICS and engagement with New Delhi while India showed promise, responsibility and capacity to lead Rahul Pawa In this reshaping of the BRICS landscape, India has assertively stamped its diplomatic and strategic acumen under Prime Minister Modi, outpacing the Chinese dragon with the calculated grace of an elephant—focused, powerful, and increasingly influential. In the years since its inception over a decade ago, BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — has matured as an influential conglomeration for majority world. Engaging in dynamic interactions with the developed world, this ensemble stands on the cusp of potentially challenging G7’s dominance in global affairs. Yet, the trajectory it charts—be it one of constructive collaboration or divisive contention—will hinge heavily on the vision the forum holds. As Asian heavyweights, India and China have to jostle to sway BRICS their way as their strategic contest will shape 21st-century geopolitics. BRIC birthed on sidelines of the 2006 UN General Assembly as a grouping of large developing countries. Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill has been credited for evolving the acronym in 2001 that captures zeitgeist of an era smitten with emerging markets. Those days, Brazil, Russia, India, and China were seen as newest frontiers of investment. By 2011, with South Africa coming on board, the acronym matured to BRICS. Today, the group no longer represents mere buoyant markets. It symbolises a collective intent to recalibrate the equitable global order historically skewed towards Western hegemony. Yet, for all its promise, BRICS stands at an inflection point. Skeptics question its cohesion, pointing to underlying rifts among member nations and ambiguity on its very purpose and membership. Yet, BRICS believes in the adage ‘strength in numbers’ as it quests towards a multipolar world order where developing countries have more influence, in line with their contributions to the global economy. Even as BRICS nations represent an overwhelming 41 per cent of world’s population, the bloc accounts for 31.5 per cent of global GDP, eclipsing the G7’s 30.4 per cent. It also commands a combined economic output valued at an astonishing $ 26 trillion, around 60 per cent of what the seven most industrialized nations generate. The staggering figures notwithstanding, a glaring inconsistency exists: the bloc’s modest voting power in the International Monetary Fund and limited decision-making in World Bank. It does not commensurate with the global influence BRICS commandes. Such disjunction magnifies a substantial source of apprehension among developing nations that have for long been seeking corrective measures to democratize these international financial and governing institutions. More than 40 heads of state gathered for the Johannesburg summit and the event marked a significant pivot in global affairs. Hosted by South Africa, the year’s rotating president following China, the theme—”BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Accelerated Growth and Inclusive Multilateralism”—spoke volumes. Notably, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa revealed that the forum had drawn intense global interest, with numerous nations seeking membership. However, amidst this diplomatic panorama, the magnetism of two Juggernauts stood out: India’s Prime Minister Modi and China’s President Xi, whose talks generated media frenzy. Correspondingly, the two leaders did have an “informal conversation” at the leaders lounge in backdrop of a pending request from the Chinese side for a bilateral meeting with India. India – China relations are etched in history of mutual reservations. Recently, tensions flared anew between the two Asian giants in 2020 when China ramped up its aggression along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), a move met with formidable resistance by India. The saga of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) traversing through Pakistan occupied Indian regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Jammu and Kashmir further complicates matters. These areas, occupied by Pakistan, are consistently contested by India as it persistently voices its objections on the International forums against the corridor. But Beijing’s ambitions don’t stop at terrestrial borders. It aims to shape the BRICS bloc – as a cornerstone of its own global strategy. From pushing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China seeks to recalibrate the world’s economic compass. On the contrary, steering clear of China’s political choreography, India zeroes in on bolstering regional economic collaborations and pushing for a recalibration of international monetary institutions to ensure the developing world isn’t left out. This nuanced strategy became increasingly transparent when India’s Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar, dispelled notions of a nascent BRICS currency, electing instead to underline the importance of fortifying Indian Rupee in July this year. As BRICS itself stands at a crossroads and appears to positioned for a transformative global narrative, India navigates these waters with discerning caution. It remains vigilant to shifts that could potentially reconfigure this 16-year-old alliance in favour of a single, dominating power, effectively altering the multi-polar balance that has long characterised the consortium. As the gavel struck to signal close of the 15th BRICS Summit at Johannesburg’s Sandton Convention Centre, a renewed world order seemed to crystallize before the global community. The seismic pivot came courtesy South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who announced the summit’s agreement to extend membership invitations to six emerging powers—Argentina, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. This dramatic enlargement, scheduled to take effect in January 2024, would make the bloc represent approximately 30 per cent of the global GDP, a financial heft rivaled by few. Amid this climate of heightened anticipation and future promise, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged as the summit’s lodestar, charting the bloc’s course with a visionary range of proposals that struck a stark contrast to China’s mysterious reticence. Modi did not just navigate intricacies of the summit; he orchestrated them. India’s domestic and international roadmaps were laid out with compelling clarity. Whether articulating his ambitious aspiration for India to graduate to a developed nation by 2047 or laying bare his robust advocacy for key reforms in the United Nations Security Council and the World Trade Organization, Modi’s leadership radiated across multiple vectors. This was further illuminated by India’s pitch in the digital payments sphere, notably the Unified Payments Interface (UPI)

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India’s Moon Mission Opens Up a Zillion Opportunities

Start-ups, small & medium firms to big enterprises will fuel India’s space foray and its economic contribution to $ 100 billion K.A.Badarinath When The New York Times scoffed at India a few years back to even try and send a lander with rover to Moon or attempt a Mars Mission, the publication may not have imagined that it would be real in a very short span. An offending cartoon of 2014 in NYT summed up the editorial board’s humiliation of India’s gumption to get into the ‘elitist space club’ to explore Mars and Moon. But then, the same cartoon made way to social media networks on Wednesday with suggestions that The New York Times make amends after India’s Chandraayan – 3 led to text book precision touch down of lander ‘Vikram’ and the rover, ‘Pragyan’ getting out to explore the moon’s south pole. Well, there were foreign media houses handles that did hail India’s feat. Some did so grudgingly while a few with ‘disbelief’. However, newspaper establishments or TV channels from Europe, US and UK in particular were not remorse about their stance vis-à-vis a purely scientific mission undertaken by a developing country like India with gusto. Some netizens pointed out that the cartoon drawn by Singapore based Heng Kim Song in NYT may have been ‘racist’ and ‘offensive’ in tone. On the other hand, ‘The Economist’ may not have been very happy with Prime Minister Modi for describing the feat as ‘victory of a new India’. What’s wrong with head of the nation sporting his country’s flag and India being victorious is not a crime. Its write up of August 23, 2023 on India’s moon mission was peppered with an acerbic claim that her rover was not as good as the one planned by America or the one owned by China. To show down the Indian achievement, ‘The Economist’ made The Economist leader did not forget to say that Indian lander touched 600 kilometres away from Moon’s ‘proper’ South Pole to apparently dispute the country’s version that it was ‘first’ to reach the place. Even gleeful ‘emojis’ and ‘jai hind’ (long live India) that flooded the internet after India’s moon feat seemed inconvenient for The Economist who could not fully appreciate the ‘aspirational and assertive India’s mind-set. Bloomberg’s Andy Mukherjee gave a political twist to India’s Chandrayaan-3 mission by buying into Congress charge of ISRO engineers that laid the infrastructure were not paid for 17 months. Mukherjee seem to have waded big into Indian political waters. Well, this jingo apart, India’s ‘historic moment’ after the moon landing opens a clutch of opportunities for humanity and major chunk of world’s population as pointed out by Prime Minister Narendra Modi from Johannesburg in South Africa where he’s huddled with BRICS leaders. What’s very significant about the ‘moon landing’ by Indian craft is that it opens space sector estimated at US $ 546 billion for home grown start-ups, small, medium, micro enterprises apart from the big boys. Big spurt of over 15 per cent at Rs 13,000 crore in market capitalization of companies that contribute to space sector in one trading session on bourses manifests the potential that the sector holds for business growth and expansion. Sixteen space technology companies in India that took roots have also got first and second round of funding from angel investors and established fund houses globally. About 30-odd small ticket funding deals clinched in last couple of years has only added to excitement after the sector was opened to private and foreign partnerships. India may very well put its bets on space economy that is estimated to expand to $ 100 billion by 2025 and account for nine per cent global share from a measly two per cent now. If Prime Minister Modi’s proposal to float a space consortium by BRICS gets adopted, space economy’s contribution to developing countries progress and development will go up multi-fold. This is one level above the BRICS satellite constellation that’s being developed. Collaborative research, skills development, education and related technologies can be jointly harvested to create a common pool. Evolving Indian counterparts to large companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic and Arianespace is what Bharat can look forward to as the country readies missions to Sun and Venus beginning next month. Going forward, creating space economy leaders of our own with the vision to realize India’s vast potential next 25-years is something we need to work on methodically. Creating separate funding buckets to bankroll technology intensive space ventures through equity and zero-rate debt is something that India will have to pursue to quickly realise for growth and expansion. Collaboration and finding right partners for each of the space missions may be the key for every country that’s exploring the universe. (Author is Director and Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, New Delhi based non-partisan think tank)

Education Geopolitics Leadership Media Policy Security Technology

505

Does Global High table make sense without India?

Given her economic clout, global supply chains; responsible nuclear power & thriving open democracy, its India time under the Sun Dr Amritpal Kaur One representative benchmarks of post-second World War international order is the leading countries coming together for policy networking in the wake of cold war era ‘blocs’. Global engagement has taken a different shape in terms of these groups. There are groups like Permanent 5 in the United Nations Security Council, Group of 7 or G7 which is a group of leading market economies in the world which are also liberal democracies. To the unversed, this might look like global high table of the richest and most affluent countries in the world. In the post second World war era, the world has seen propagation of strategic affairs of the rich countries play out via coordinated groups like G7. The huddling of major democratic countries with market economies increases their impact in the world affairs as they also are permanent members in UNSC, control majority shares in institutions like World Bank and IMF and are among top 10 economies in the world. But, twenty first century is easily touted as the Asian century which means rise of the Asian Giants that will have altering effect on the global pecking order. Whether one accepts or not but China has grown leaps and bounds on economic development despite all its infirmities. And, Indian juggernaut is picking up pace. But, for good part of twentieth century, India was kept out of these influential groups. One way or the other, the high table was denied to India and importantly Indians too lacked the power or the heft to make their voice heard. Had India joined the Western camp after attaining independence post-colonial British era, could the fate of camp following be avoided? Or, Could India maintain its ‘strategic autonomy’ that she freely exercises without any encumbrances? Chances are that India would have been treated like any other third world country joining the Western Camp. Then what has changed in the world which has necessitated incorporation of India into the global high table? Historically, India has always been a country of consequence in the world politics. With its large swathes of land, richly endowed in mineral and non-mineral resources, its unique place in the Indian Ocean facilitating maritime trade made the country ‘Sink of Gold’ and large population ensured that she would be at the center of global high table, a trend which lasted till the advent of colonial powers on her shores. British colonization was majorly responsible to diminish her say and value in the global order. Even then, India was regarded diamond in the British crown, underlining its unique position in the British Empire. When the empire was finally forced out, India got reduced to an impoverished country, typical of third world. It was also the time when Indian voice in the global affaires was effectively ineffective. During first fifty years post-independence, India was effectively a spectator without the means to engage and take independent calls internationally that were of consequence. Change in Indian fortunes also led to other countries perception and reception of India as an effective entity, human race and a society to reckon with. The high and mighty of the world had started out with anti-India stand. Of late, they had to revise their stand given India’s economic development and increasing political clout. Perceptional change began with Nuclear Non-Proliferation. India has consistently stated that Nuclear Non-Proliferation regime under NPT and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty were heavily biased against countries not possessing nuclear technologies and on that ground it did not sign NPT and CTBT. Till the Clinton administration days (1992-2000), nuclear nonproliferation was a major bone of contention. What this issue exhibited was India’s firm positioning in the eyes of major world powers. It was also the time when India was getting itself out of 1991-92 economic crisis with recovery very nascent. According to World Bank Indian GDP in 2000 stood at US $ 468.39 billion as against $10.25 trillion of USA, $ 1.95 trillion of Germany, $ 4.97 trillion of Japan, $ 1.67 trillion of United Kingdom and $ 1.21 trillion of China. In the hindsight, it was also the time when tide started to turn, in Dickensian fashion, ‘it was best of the times and it was worst of the times’. As Indian fortunes shifted, so did the positions on global high table. Civil nuclear deal between India and USA exemplify the change in attitude towards India. George Bush Jr’s administration was responsible to end India’s nuclear apartheid, thereby opening the doors for transfer of latest technologies not only by Americans but also by others. It was also the time when consensus was being built on permanent membership for India in the UNSC. Barring China, rest of the P5 group was in support of India’s candidature. Since then Indian foreign policy got a fresh coat of paint and nuanced approach in the world affairs. India has been able to objectively articulate its individual position to assert its ‘strategic autonomy’. Two events underline this trend. One is the Covid 19 crisis when India provided vaccines support to other countries under the much-acclaimed Vaccine Maitri programme. In fact when major countries were busy in hoarding vaccines, India came forward in support of poor countries by dipping into its own vaccine inventory. Second is the Ukraine crisis, where India pursued its own independent line without budging under pressure. Devil lies in the details and it’s true in India’s case as well. World Bank data shows that by 2022, Indian economy expanded to US $ 3.39 trillion as against $ 25.46 trillion of USA, $ 4.07 trillion of Germany, $ 4.23 trillion of Japan, $ 3.07 trillion of United Kingdom and $ 17.96 trillion of China in GDP terms. At this pace, by 2030, India will be third largest economy in the World. Fresh data from Morgan Stanley suggests that India’s ascent to third place may be much earlier by

Geopolitics Hindus Human Rights Opinion Pakistan Policy Security Uncategorized World

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Canada’s Khalistani Quagmire

Justin Trudeau regime cannot soft pedal growing anti-India campaigns that reportedly have deep connect with Pakistani military establishment Rahul Pawa Multi-culturalism and inclusivity central to Canadian identity are under stringent scrutiny. Recent incidents in Canada have not only unveiled a surge in Hindu-phobia and Khalistani extremism but have spotlighted a shadow of external influences, prominently emanating from Pakistan. This escalation rooted in historical context pose substantial challenges for the nation’s social fabric, especially its diplomatic relationship with India. The imperative now lies in comprehending these dynamics and the ramifications they present for Indo-Canadian ties. Pakistan’s vested interest in de-stabilizing India is not new. Time and again, evidence has surfaced of Pakistan’s support to factions opposing India in Canada with Khalistani extremists being prime example. As per several reports, the backing is not just ideological. It encompasses financial, logistical and even militaristic aid. A grim reminder of this is the bombing of Air India Flight 182 in 1985. Originating from Canada, this catastrophic act led to loss of 329 lives, comprising mainly Canadians, British and Indian nationals. Subsequent investigations pointed to Khalistani extremists in British Columbia having tangible connections to Pakistan. Mastermind behind this heinous act, Talwinder Singh Parmar found his way to Pakistan from where he continued to spearhead terrorist operations against India. More so, it is widely reported that the situation is further complicated by presence of immigrants in Canada which have previously served Pakistani Army or its notorious spy agency ISI, potentially becoming conduits for de-stabilizing agendas. Recent occurrences in Canada, highlighting a troubled surge in Hindu-phobia and Khalistani extremism have prompted grave concerns. The deliberate and systematic targeting of Hindu temples from January’s attack on Gauri Shankar to unsettling assault on the Lakshmi Narayan Mandir in Surrey on August 12, 2023 underscores the emerging threat. The situation was further exacerbated by Khalistan Rally on July 8. Pamphlets distributed in this rally targeting Indian diplomats not only in Canada but also in US and Australia has upped the ante. These threats directly endanger Indian government officials and their families, creating an atmosphere of heightened tension. Far from being isolated incidents, these actions appear to be in line with a larger, orchestrated agenda. More than just demand for a separate Khalistani state, they echo a wider anti-India sentiment. The timing of these actions seems more than coincidental as they emerged against backdrop of Pakistan grappling with a plethora of internal challenges. By stoking Khalistani narrative abroad, particularly in nations home to significant Indian diaspora like Canada, Pakistan attempts to divert international attention from its internal strife, painting a narrative of oppressed minorities within India. Fostering tensions between nations such as Canada and India dovetail with Pakistan’s broader geopolitical strategies in South Asia. By promoting Anti-Hindu and Anti-India sentiments, Pakistan seeks a diplomatic edge India. Canada’s reticence in tackling these developments is alarming. Even with historical markers like the Pakistan-backed 1985 Air India bombing, Canada has seemingly tiptoed around the issue. This reluctance is not just an oversight; it’s a glaring diplomatic miscalculation. This hesitancy reached a crescendo during Trudeau’s 2018 India trip, where a former Khalistani terrorist was discovered on an official event guest list. Such lapses cast shadow on Canada’s commitment to combat extremism. Several reasons underline why Canada needs to spring into action. Primarily, these events test the nation’s multicultural foundations. If religious or cultural identity becomes grounds for targeting, Canada’s societal bedrock is at risk. Diplomatically, the stakes are even higher. Canada’s relationship with India, entrenched in trade, education, technology, and cultural exchanges, hangs in the balance. India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has made it clear: bilateral ties are at a crossroads if Canada doesn’t adequately address these issues. Canada’s political landscape and its implications for Indo-Canadian relations cannot be overlooked. At the helm of Canada’s minority government is Justin Trudeau whose power is buttressed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Jagmeet Singh, a known Khalistani sympathiser. Singh’s NDP, with its crucial 24 seats in the parliament, plays an instrumental role in Trudeau’s political survival. In the 2019 Canadian general elections, Trudeau’s Liberal Party secured 157 seats falling short of the majority mark at 170. This necessitated reliance on the support of legislators from left-leaning parties, prominently the NDP. In the aftermath of elections, Trudeau and Singh forged an alliance through the confidence-and-supply agreement slated to last until 2025. The strength of this partnership was evident when NDP threw its weight behind Trudeau during an opposition-led attempt to probe alleged Chinese interference in Canada’s elections. The security of this political backing has seemingly emboldened Singh. Armed with the leverage his party exerts over Trudeau’s government, he has been vociferously critical of India and openly supportive of Khalistani cause. Given this dynamic, Canada’s approach to issues like Khalistani extremism and Hindu-phobia becomes inherently tied to its internal politics, with potential ramifications for its international relations, especially with India. Pakistan’s shadow in the surge of Hindu-phobia and Khalistani extremism in Canada is hard to ignore. Its intentions, while covert, have clear patterns that trace back decades. For Canada, the stakes are high. Addressing this issue requires more than mere recognition; it demands action. Internally, a stronger stance against extremist elements, externally, transparency in diplomatic engagements, particularly with India and a careful re-evaluation of its ties with nations promoting extremism are crucial. Ignoring this burgeoning crisis is a risk Canada cannot afford, both for its internal cohesion and its global diplomatic standing. The time for decisive action is now. (Author is Research Director at Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a non-partisan think tank based in New Delhi)

Education Geopolitics Leadership Media Policy Security

498

A Resolute Goal

Reform, transform and perform is the mantra that will fuel India’s grand standing as a developed nation by 2047 Rohan Giri India’s Independence Day holds immense significance as it commemorates the nation’s liberation from British colonial rule while embodying its journey to realize 1.4 billion people’s dreams. Prime Minister Narendra Modi address on this special day unveiled a plan to put India on high growth trajectory. Modi painted a compelling portrait on India’s future drawing inspiration from her classical civilizational roots. He set a resolute goal for India to attain developed nation status by 2047. On 77-th Independence Day, Prime Minister began his address by referring to the turmoil and violence in Manipur and its impending resolution. He emphatically stated, “The country stands with the people of Manipur… Resolution is possible only through peace. The Centre and the state government are making all efforts to find a solution, and will continue to do so.” While the state was limping back to normalcy, a lot more needs to be done for making Manipur home to diverse tribes living in harmony moving away from conflict, violence, women’s abuse, pain and suffering of various tribes. Narendra Modi moved on to point the pivotal significance of undertaking economic reforms to fortify India’s global standing. As evident, India’s economy, valued at a staggering $3.5 trillion surpassed that of United Kingdom last year securing its place as fifth-largest in the world. With unwavering conviction, he declared India’s resolute trajectory to ascend into the elite club of top three global economies in next five years. Prime Minister heralded a noteworthy accomplishment – uplifting over 130 million individuals from strangle hold of poverty. He emphasized that India’s burgeoning prosperity serves as a compelling opportunity not only for the nation itself but for entire global community. Modi’s persistent emphasis on these aspects underscores his unequivocal dedication to harnessing India’s demographic dividend and steering it to transform into an economic powerhouse. India is swiftly advancing on development path, garnering significant global recognition for its burgeoning expansion. Modi as Prime Minister, it is both commendable and imperative to nurture aspirations for a resplendent future. Contemplating the trajectory of India’s future, Modi affirmed, “I am confident that in 2047 when India marks 100 years of its Independence, it will be a developed nation. I say this on the basis of the capability of my country and available resources…” Realizing the vision for a fully developed nation demands collective effort necessitating certain sacrifices from each citizen. Prime Minister emphasized, “We have to fight three things now — corruption, family rule, and appeasement. These create impediments to people’s aspirations while corruption has badly affected India’s capability. Modi has rightly targeted fighting against corruption as a key area. While politics of appeasement has inflicted most harm on social justice, the country has to resolve not to tolerate corruption in any form. Global arena not only acknowledges ingenuity of Indian leadership but recognizes strength of the country’s core philosophy. Rooted in India’s philosophical moorings, this perception of entire humanity as one family stands out differently. In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, India presented a resonant principle: “One earth, one health.” This principle acted as a beacon of hope for afflicted nations. In the aftermath of Covid-19 pandemic, the imperative for comprehensive healthcare has come to the forefront. This need has sparked a noticeable surge in the global embrace of traditional Indian healthcare practices such as indigenous medicine, yoga and meditation. Notably, yoga, an amalgamation of physical, mental, and spiritual practices rooted in ancient India has seamlessly woven itself into the daily routines of people across the globe. Moreover, India’s healthcare systems including Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, Sowa Rigpa and Homeopathy, progressively garnered global recognition. Presently India is leading the G-20 as the Chair and espoused a grand vision encapsulated by the mantra “One Earth, One Family, One Future.” This profound perspective serves as comprehensive remedy to current challenges like war in Ukraine and forms the bedrock for harmonious and prosperous global coexistence in times to come. The landscape of world order and geopolitics is undergoing swift transformations. New Delhi has engaged with the world powers in new ways by building alliances, strike trade deals and increases defence cooperation. On reshaping global order, Narendra Modi underscored, “In shaping a changing world, Indian people’s capabilities are evident… India’s biggest capability is trust — people’s trust in the government, the country’s bright future and the world’s trust in India. The ball is in our court, and we should not let go of opportunity; no ifs and buts on anyone’s mind about India’s capabilities.” Prime Minister’s 90-minute address also delved into subjects like democracy, women-driven progress and space technology to novel schemes and pressing concern of terrorism. His speech was a clarion call for people to embrace principles of Reform, Perform, and Transform. His vision for a reformed, efficient, and self-reliant India reflects well with aspirations of millions of Indians. As the country navigates its path to progress and prosperity, the roadmap in Modi’s speech provides a framework to guide India’s journey into the future. (Author is Operations Manager at Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a New Delhi based non-partisan think tank)

Business Economy Education Leadership Policy Security Technology World

525

Unleash India spirit!

Changing geo-political equations & global order has etched a key role for India as Vishwa Guru & Mitra, the most dependable ally K.A.Badarinath Prime Minister Narendra Modi put up a comprehensive socio-economic development plan before 1.4 billion Indians while delivering his tenth address from ramparts of iconic Red Fort. Given the grand plan that encapsulates his over 90-minutes address on Tuesday, political interpretations are bound to be made given that elections to four state legislatures followed by Lok Sabha polls were scheduled before June 2024. While the messenger in Modi arguably did a fantastic job of presenting broad contours of 25- year work plan, the leader in him hit the right note on three evils that the country faced. Presenting a case for ‘developed India’ by 2047, the year country celebrates her centennial post-independence from imperialistic British forces, Modi did not mince words. In the process, he has served an early notice to four large global economies that also consider themselves as invincible. A vision document being readied by ruling BJP and the central government would roll out specifics in this plan. This document has been in the works last one year when 75-years commemoration campaign was kicked off by Modi. Given that 2023 is first of 25-years ‘amrit kaal’, emphasis on grand ‘long viewfinder’ works well and timely. The resolve to build on substantive achievements last ten years got reflected amply on socio-economic front to upend India to third position as largest growing economy with a wide diverse market for goods and services. Fight against corruption, dynastic politics and appeasement line he pushed very hard is in continuation of BJP and NDA closing ranks to not cede even an inch of political space for 26-parties opposition. These three evils found mention prominently even in his reply to a no-confidence motion that was moved by some opposition parties earlier this month. Targeting a few families that run their political parties as personal fiefdoms or family enterprises, Prime Minister seems to have taken the fight across fence. Guarantees on political stability would be a big factor given resounding victory that Modi got in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha. And, continuation of the ten-year work done is one clinching issue politically as well as on economic front. Political instability is one big risk that goes against the very grain of investments, buoyancy in markets and economic expansion. From the opposition perspective, political stability is one thing that cannot be taken for granted given inherent contradictions within fragile political formations that form part of anti-Modi rainbow network Recent successes for Congress in Karnataka and Aam Aadmi Party winning big in Punjab may have enthused opposition ranks leading to Patna and Bengaluru conclaves. But the socio-economic model of ‘freebies in Punjab and guarantees in Karnataka’ are unsustainable. Already, Karnataka has made more than clear that it would hardly be able to mobilize funds for even taking forward development projects erstwhile BJP government has begun. Internecine power struggle within the Congress and inter-party rivalry with the 26-party conglomeration is bound to take investors dizzy. Yet another commitment made by Narendra Modi was to guarantee against corruption that’s eating into vitals of the Indian polity. By and large, the ten year Modi rule at centre was corruption free notwithstanding charges of ‘suit boot sarkar’ made by Congress to pull down the BJP and tarnish with its own black brush. In states, public sector companies, banks and award of contracts, most players across spectrum have still been susceptible and amenable to personal gratification. Through the guarantee, Modi may have to extend his fight against corruption to states and then down below as districts administration continue to be marred by shady deals that need closer scrutiny. Trust in his leadership and BJP-led NDA model of governance is something that he has earned in last ten years. This trust needs to get extended downwards under his close watch to ensure that Hindu-centric voters will continue to be with Modi-led alliance. Mistrust with Congress regimes was what made ten years rule of Manmohan Singh unsustainable. Trust factor with the voters, partners, investors and all stakeholders in the next government may have to be worked on faster by Modi’s strategists. Narendra Modi seems to have banked heavily on spirit of India that has stood test of times. When he invoked ‘unstoppable’, tireless and does not give up’ spirit of hoi polloi, he made an instant ‘emotive connect’ with those tired of being ‘held up or pulled back’ in realizing their aspirations. BJP, NDA and Modi’s commitment to the concept of ‘vishwa guru’ or attaining numero uno status for India globally is fairly well established. Extending this further, Prime Minister Modi portrayed India as a ‘vishwa mitra’, a bankable friend, dependable partner and stakeholder in human development. His talk of a new ‘global order’ and ‘geo-political’ alignments is rather real given sea changes experienced in aftermath of cold war. Post-Covid 19, the much anticipated re-working of global order is expected to roll out in near future. And, this provides perfect opportunity for India to play a key responsible role internationally moving away from reticence of the past by ‘minding its own business’. This futuristic articulation to position India on global matrix both on geo-political issues and socio-economic plane would go well. (Author is Director& Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a non-partisan think tank based in New Delhi)

Education Geopolitics Hindus Human Rights Policy Security

673

77 Years Later: Women, Religion, and Gender Biases in Pakistan

Pakistan’s commemoration of its 76th year of independence ironically highlights the dire situation of its women to the world. Even after seven long decades post-independence, women in Pakistan are still deprived of basic rights like education, freedom of expression, and opportunities for employment. Interactions with these women reveal a bleak landscape of their relentless battles and diminishing hopes, questioning the essence of what independence and empowerment should signify in contemporary Pakistan. The Global Gender Gap Index Report 2022 starkly showcases Pakistan’s lamentable gender disparities. Globally, Pakistan regrettably ranks near the bottom in areas such as economic participation, education, health, and survival. These glaring figures bring to light the deep-seated gender biases corroding Pakistani society. Heartbreakingly, interviews depict that many women, from diverse backgrounds, feel oppressed and frequently persecuted. The glaring lack of women in political leadership roles further accentuates the overpowering grasp of patriarchal norms. As Pakistan grapples with increasing vulnerabilities to climate change, it is the women who suffer most. The evident link between environmental concerns and gender inequities is undeniable, more so when environmental calamities intensify the hardships for women. Disappointingly, Pakistan’s leadership and related agencies seem to disregard the urgent need for gender-sensitive climate policies. Women are forced to grapple with the adverse effects of polluted air, dwindling water resources, and other ecological hazards. Karachi, often hailed as the crown jewel of Pakistan, sadly reflects the country’s deep-seated gender prejudice. Interviews conducted there consistently highlight the harrowing challenges women face daily in their pursuit of fundamental rights. The pervasive issue of harassment looms over many working women, indicating a stark absence of safety and respect in society. Their stories resonate with the perpetual tension between aspiring for basic liberties and the grim reality of a society that denies them. While there are sporadic glimpses of progress in isolated pockets of Pakistan, they are largely eclipsed by overwhelming challenges. Although a section of women is experiencing improved access to education and a shift in societal attitudes, such changes only underline the inconsistent strides Pakistan is making towards gender equality. The societal chasm and economic divides paint a grim narrative: a handful of the educated find better opportunities abroad, while many remain entrapped in their homeland. Regions like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa serve as stark reminders of areas where opportunities for women’s education and employment are scarcely available. For a select few, empowerment is perceived as a state of mind. Yet, such an uplifting perspective is frequently overshadowed by societal constraints. While acknowledging one’s self-worth can be liberating, the overwhelming societal barriers often appear insurmountable. A disheartening reality permeating Pakistani society is that even though education is regarded as a catalyst for change, women’s aspirations are recurrently thwarted. While both genders emphasise the significance of education, it’s clear that education in isolation cannot reform the prevailing norms. A comprehensive transformation is essential. Families, communities, and policymakers must move beyond mere words and take decisive actions to ensure women are accorded their rightful stature in society. Tragically, when evaluating Pakistan’s intricate web of gender inequality, the plights of religious minority women further exacerbate the situation. Hindu, Sikh, and Christian women, already marginalised due to their gender, are subjected to heightened persecution based on their religious affiliations. Reports and personal accounts underscore distressing instances of kidnappings, forced religious conversions, and coerced marriages. These young girls are often brutally separated from their families and pressured into renouncing their faith, further alienating them within their communities. Such heinous acts are not just a violation of religious freedom and human rights but also emphasise Pakistan’s pressing need to address the dual challenges of gender and religious persecution. The commitment to ensuring every woman’s safety and freedom, regardless of her religious beliefs, must be unwavering. Amid these narratives of despair, the question that emerges is – where does Pakistan envision its future in terms of gender justice and religious freedom? With the rest of the world progressing towards more inclusive societies, Pakistan seems to be caught in a time warp, clinging to outdated norms and practices. Yet, it is essential to remember that the situation isn’t bereft of hope entirely. Grassroots movements, led by resilient Pakistani women and their allies, are sprouting across the country. These women, armed with education, determination, and a vision of a brighter future, are challenging the deeply entrenched norms. They are building networks, using both traditional methods and technology, to reach out, educate, and uplift their peers. Furthermore, international attention and pressure could play a pivotal role. Global agencies, human rights organisations, and foreign governments can leverage their influence to urge the Pakistani administration to enforce stronger laws that protect the rights of all its citizens, irrespective of gender or religion. Sanctions, trade agreements, and international treaties can all serve as tools to nudge the nation towards the path of genuine reform. On the cultural front, artists, writers, and filmmakers within Pakistan are pushing boundaries, creating works that challenge societal norms and provide a platform for the oppressed voices to be heard. The role of art and media as a force for change cannot be underestimated, especially in a digital age where content can transcend borders and inspire solidarity and action globally. Pakistan stands at a crucial juncture. The choices it makes in the upcoming years will determine whether it continues its descent into a quagmire of regressive practices or rises, phoenix-like, to create a society that is just, inclusive, and forward-thinking. As the world watches, it remains to be seen if Pakistan will heed the cries of its women, recognise the strength in their resilience, and move towards a brighter, more equitable future.

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