Business Geopolitics Leadership Policy

Doves in Droves!

Indian debt market with foreign funds influx of US $ 30 billion after JP Morgan, Bloomberg indexation reflect confidence of global financial community K.A.Badarinath A quiet transformation that has gone less noticed in India is that of its debt market which is in for bigger overhaul. Strong growth story, reforms in debt market, decisive leadership of Narendra Modi government have created fresh opportunities for foreign investors in the nascent debt market with potential and promise. After over years of intense negotiations, Indian sovereign bonds will make it to Bloomberg and JP Morgan’s emerging markets index. Getting benchmarked on these two indices would lead to about $ 30 billion inflows into Indian debt paper that’s largely confined to government banks and financial institutions. US bank J P Morgan recently announced inclusion of 23 government bonds worth $ 330 billion on its emerging markets index. This will be staggered out over ten months beginning June 28, 2024 to March 2025. Close on the heels, Bloomberg Index Services has given firm hint that Indian bonds will be part of its indices globally. While Bloomberg reported discussions with its clients that are largely banks and investment companies, JP Morgan has more or less completed this exercise. As per reports, large investors in government debt internationally expected Bloomberg to include India bonds in first quarter of next fiscal in India beginning April 1, 2024. Inclusion of Indian treasury issued rupee denominated bonds under fully accessible route (FAR) are part of JP Morgan and Bloomberg indices would lead to large global investors taking big exposure in Bharat’s paper. Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Bharat’s central bank in consultation with Indian government had opened a new channel named, Fully accessible route (FAR), through which non-resident investors were permitted to invest in specified Indian securities without caps. This foreign investors’ window was formally opened in 2020. In the indexation of JP Morgan and Bloomberg, Indian bonds are set to get maximum weightage of 10 points globally and 8.7 points in emerging markets indices. India’s finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman is right on track when she says that stability, policy consistency and reforms has made Bharat’s famed growth story all the more robust and sustainable. With emergence of India as a strong manufacturing hub for top companies like Apple, Nokia, Boeing, Samsung and Amazon, equity markets turned ebullient with fresh equities investments moving away from China. A similar situation is getting unravelled in debt market with investors shifting away from China that’s struggling to keep its growth estimates in short and medium term positive and healthy given hiccups in the post-Covid 19 recovery. In contrast, India is expected to log fastest growth next two years with 6.1 per cent in 2023 as per International Monetary Fund. This weighs against US’s 1.8 per cent and global aggregate of 3 per cent. China losing steam, Russia taken out of the indices following Ukraine war and healthy economic growth in India has egged foreign investment firms, rating agencies and large banks to look at Bharat’s debt paper eagerly. Finance Minister Sitharaman may have been a wee bit conservative when she projected inflows of US $ 23 billion after inclusion of Indian debt paper on JP Morgan Bond Index. Goldman Sachs, the prominent US investment bank and services company, has however projected $ 30 billion in 2023-24 when top investors rebalance their exposure internationally. Chinese debt paper was in demand way back in 2019. Of late, Chinese paper has begun to lose support given its shaky economic fundamentals that may translate into larger interest in Indian debt market. Hitherto, treasury debt paper was largely restricted to government owned banks and financial institutions while a very small chunk was available for retail investors and mutual funds. Foreign investors seem to be factoring huge infrastructure investment plans rolled out by Narendra Modi government. And, second factor that may propel rebalancing their exposure is outcome of legislative assembly elections in five states followed by Parliament polls before June 2024. Projected manifold increase in foreign funds flow into India debt paper goes well with ‘on the ascent’ narrative of Narendra Modi’s ruling BJP and its allies that have begun a spirited campaign ahead of states and federal elections. No doubt that RBI and Indian government are experimenting big by enabling foreign investors to take large exposure in Indian paper. This may eventually translate into RBI losing some flexibility in money policy formulation and shifting to market-led dynamics. One cannot ignore the contrarian view as well. Foreign investors taking exposure worth US $ 25 – 30 billion in government stock of over Rs 100 lakh crore or US $ 1.2 trillion is too little and too late. If one were to factor fresh borrowing of Rs 1.65 lakh crore each year, these inflows would add depth to the Indian debt market without having material impact on monetary policy formulation in near future. Unanimous view however is the robustness, inclusiveness and sustainability of India’s growth story built on strong economic fundamentals. Financial community’s confidence in Indian story reaffirms that doves are back in droves. (author is Director & Chief Executive at New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

Disinformation Fact Sheet Geopolitics Hindus Misinformation Policy

506

California’s Divisive Senate Bill 403 Vetoed

Policymakers, legislative bodies and city councils in US may have exercise more vigilance against divisive manipulative agendas and be compassionate, sensitive to supporting minority Hindu community that seeks to protect Sanatan dharma based values that propagate an inclusive and all pervasive, peaceful, progressive and prosperous America ….. read more

Cyber Security Geopolitics Human Rights Insurgency Security

584

Israel’s Right to Defend is Absolute

Hamas and Hezbollah have just escalated their threat level, nuisance value thereby altering the delicately balanced West Asia power equations Rahul Pawa As Saturday dawned bright and sunny on the important Jewish day of observance, Israel was jolted by unexpected assault from Palestinian terrorists linked to Hamas in Gaza. With cold precision, Hamas backed by Hezbollah orchestrated a sweeping, multifaceted assault against Israel presenting one of the gravest challenges to the Jewish nation faced in half a century. In this nefariously orchestrated operation, diverse array of tactics was employed by Hamas, the dreaded Sunni Islamist outfit. This included gliders and parachutes with weapons that took to skies, naval vessels for maritime intrusion and heavily-armed terrorists advancing on foot. Hamas audacity became evident with launch of rockets in thousands, some daringly aimed at Jerusalem. The sheer scale of this aggression not only resonates with its immediate impact but raises significant concerns, setting off global alarm, attention and unease. In a recorded message, Hamas terror commander Mohammed Deif referred to the assault as “Operation Al-Aqsa Storm.” He urged Palestinians in various regions to unite in the fight and emphasized on return to their revolution. He pointed to alleged Israeli hostilities and tensions surrounding Al-Aqsa Mosque in East Jerusalem as a catalyst. This sentiment was echoed by Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh who rallied Muslims worldwide to defend Al-Aqsa and Islam’s sacred mission. The overarching message to Israelis was not just about Palestinian cause but conveyed deep religious conviction, viewing Israelis, predominantly Jews as betrayers of the ‘Islamic divine will’. Fallout of this Hamas terror attack was catastrophic. About 22 Israeli towns and critical military installations were under siege with human toll painting an even grimmer picture. For Israelis, the ordeal was nightmarish, ceaseless, and unimaginable. As hours ticked by, families huddled in their homes, in hope of getting relief from encroaching Hamas terrorists infiltrating their communities. At a music festival southern Israel, young attendees from around the world faced a tragic and ruthless fate. In a dark twist, Hamas brazenly broadcast their acts turning their reign of terror into a spectacle for the world. Israeli families including women and children bore the brunt of this mindless violence with numerous abductions and heart-wrenching scenes streamed live. The world witnessed trauma of a wounded young Israeli woman dragged into Gaza and an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) soldier’s tragic fate displayed for all. Shockingly, the reaction to this brazen act of terrorism in certain quarters was inconceivably jubilant. Pro-Hamas videos found enthusiastic distribution and received cheers from its supporters around the world, including far-left factions in the West and India. Celebrations erupted in Tehran and Ramallah with Iran’s own parliamentary body voicing chilling chants of “Death to Israel” inside its Parliament. The intent was clear: every harrowing moment inflicted on the Israelis was meant not just as an act of terror but also as a message, an open humiliation. In response to multiple infiltrations and rocket launches from Gaza Strip, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel was now in a state of war. He vowed retaliation against Hamas and underscored Israel’s unwavering right to self-defense. By Saturday, prominent global leaders including Joe Biden, Narendra Modi and Rishi Sunak voiced their solidarity with Israel. Their condemnation of unprecedented aggression by Palestinian terror group, Hamas was resolute. Moreover, the US, UK and several nations unequivocally affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself. Several hours later, Israel retaliated fiercely in Gaza resulting in significant casualties. The conflict’s ripple effects were felt as far as Lebanon with clashes between Israel and Hezbollah and in Alexandria, where two Israeli tourists were killed. Israeli airstrikes targeted strategic points in Gaza including residences and Hamas officials’ homes leading to over 300 fatalities. With ongoing ground confrontations in southern Israel, the military was criticized for not thwarting the initial attack. Israel has now deployed a substantial force around Gaza and plans to evacuate Israelis near the territory’s border. Hamas attacks which commenced in early hours of Saturday has to date tragically resulted in loss of over 800 lives and injuries to more than 2000 individuals. Importantly, implications of the events in Israel stretch far beyond the immediate trauma and retaliatory defense response. Streaming pro-Hamas videos depicting grave violations against Israeli civilians and detained IDF personnel amount to crimes against humanity. In a startling breach, Hamas terrorists from Gaza managed to infiltrate southern Israeli border in a very short span of time catching Israeli defense posts off guard. This raises eyebrows given the sophistication and depth of Israel’s intelligence and surveillance operations especially focused on monitoring Hamas. Several Western commentators point to serious intelligence lapse from within Israel and its global partners. Inefficiency of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) funded at a staggering $23.6 billion annually also posed serious questions. When Israeli citizens found themselves enmeshed in their darkest hour, the defense forces seemed conspicuously absent. Even hours into the crisis, rapid response from the military was lacking and the political leadership appeared equally paralyzed, failing to provide clarity or direction. The nation, so often lauded for its security prowess seemed collectively stunned. With the state’s apparatus seemingly in a state of inertia, a haunting silence enveloped the nation’s psyche. The events challenge conventional beliefs about the robustness of Israel’s defense and political machinery. Hamas, with swift terror acts sought to humiliate Israel. By kidnapping children, desecrating the fallen and broadcasting their acts, they aimed to instill fear and expose perceived Israeli vulnerabilities. These actions by Hamas, once considered a mere regional irritant, have substantially shifted the strategic landscape. Their provocations have transcended previous boundaries, deeply challenging Israel’s long-held defensive strategies. These events have catalyzed unity among Israelis across political and social spectra. While internal differences persist, Hamas actions have crystalized the pressing need for a united front against the common enemy. The images and narratives from recent events serve as painful reminders of perils of a divided stance. In the face of this enhanced threat level, Israel’s stance is bound to evolve.

Uncategorized

550

Chinese Puppetry on Show!

Probing charges of money laundering, peddling of Chinese propaganda by NewsClick is not suppression of press freedom K.A.Badarinath Noise on suppression of press freedom and free speech has not yet reached a crescendo. This noise has just begun in India with Left parties, their frontal organizations and anti-Modi political alliance partners going for the kill. Few activists from these political formations hit the streets on Wednesday protesting a probe against alleged China funded portal ‘NewsClick’ that reportedly laundered money to bankroll the dragon’s ‘propaganda’ vehicle. Portal’s founder Prabir Purkayastha and his human resources head were rounded up by special operations unit of Delhi Police after having questioned over a dozen journalists, consultants and later seized their devices for further investigation. Big question therefore is why all the noise on purported suppression of press freedom in India? Well, this is not the first time that such false narrative was peddled or reported in domestic and foreign media outlets in last ten-odd years. Two big charges against ‘NewsClick’ and its front-enders is that the organization worked as ‘propaganda vehicle’ for China. And, second serious charge is that foreign funds were routed through a millionaire businessman Neville Roy Singham to take forward nefarious Chinese Communist Party agenda in India. Well, only an in-depth investigation will bring out the facts and stick out separated from the organized noise of fringe Left parties that claim to protect, cherish and embellish Mao’s jinxed political thought. Firstly, is it a crime to investigate possible wrong doing by anyone concerned with ‘NewsClick’? The probe was launched by Delhi Police, Enforcement Directorate and other agencies only after having filed a detailed first information report against the accused on August 17 taking cognizance of ‘Chinese Propaganda machine’ related reports that appeared in The New York Times. These very political formations and self-styled proponents of ‘free press’ that hit the streets have had sworn by NYT on more than one occasion to hit out at the Modi government. Now, what’s wrong in investigating ‘NewsClick’ based on newspaper reports and Enforcement Directorate’s own research? The New York Times had pointed to a global web of Chinese propaganda that involved American non-profits which stretched from Chicago to Shanghai. This web as per NYT had NewsClick as an active participant. Now, why can’t the law enforcement agencies do their job of enforcing probity in public life, negate possible China propaganda campaign and stem laundering of foreign funds that made their way into ‘NewsClick’ during 2018 – 21 and used ‘against the Indian state’? Does this tantamount to suppressing press freedom? Or, is initiation of an inquiry anti-democratic by any stretch of imagination? It’s rather surprising that newspapers like ‘The Hindu’ and ‘Indian Express’ that were at forefront of investigating Bofors scam in early ‘80s and ‘90s editorialized the police action on ‘NewsClick’ as smacking of supressing press freedom. And, it is rather laughable. Crackdown against suspected crime by elements inimical to Bharat’s interests or exposing ‘NewsClick’ handlers in US and China cannot be equated with Smt Indira Gandhi’s decision to suspend basic citizens’ rights, impose internal emergency and curb press freedom in 1975 after an adversarial verdict of Allahabad High Court. Wouldn’t Ramnath Goenka, founder of Indian Express and Kasturi Ranga Iyengar of ‘The Hindu’ turn in their graves at the suggestion of curbing press freedom for investigating against ‘NewsClick’ management and their handlers? As in case of any individual or organization, don’t journalists have basic responsibility to submit before law enforcement agencies seeking to get at the truth? Making hue and cry of a probe may not drown the truth about irregularities at ‘NewsClick’. At best, NewsClick is a scrappy outlet that used invectives and propaganda to try and corner Narendra Modi government. And, it gained prominence only after The New York Times investigation linked it to a network that funded pro-China campaigns. Similar noise and public outrage was on show after BBC India operations were scrutinized for violation of Indian taxation laws. Tax sleuths assessment forced BBC to admit that it had under-reported revenues, profits and thereby evaded taxes. Reuters, The Hindustan Times and The Mint newspapers reported that BBC under-reported incomes worth Rs 40 crore to evade taxes. Well, income tax assessment of UK government funded BBC accounts was blown out of proportion and several of these very propagandists had jumped in to cite suppression of press freedom. There was no plausible explanation on how enforcement of domestic tax laws was same as suppression of press freedom. In the first place, big question was how did a foreign government funded media organization gather courage to evade taxes? Certainly, India is neither a banana republic nor subservient outpost of the erstwhile British imperialist rulers. When news laundry, yet another website were surveyed by Income Tax officials in 2021, similar charges of ‘intimidation and press freedom’ were heaped against the law enforcement agencies. Rule of law is what matters. Whether it is Bharat Samachaar or Dainik Bhaskar, media organizations need to be upfront given their distinct responsibility to readers, people that go by what appears in the media and the country. If thousands of websites, newspapers, TV Channels, social media handles owned by Indians, domestic corporates and foreign collaborations have been freely undertaking news operations, then where’s this suppression of press freedom? Seeking accountability is not equivalent to suppression of press freedom and rights. Newspapers, magazines and other media outlets in India like elsewhere have taken an independent editorial line in sync with their beliefs, understanding and assessment of a government, its policies and political ideologies. Editorial positioning of a media organization is distinctly different from resorting to irregularities, wrong doing, anti-India propaganda or joining flanks with the enemy. Let’s not equate press freedom with irregularities and anti-India tacit operations. Freedom comes with responsibility. (Author is Director& Chief Executive of New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

Geopolitics Leadership Policy Security World

509

Maldivian Mirage, China Political Tightrope!

Maldives stands at a crucial juncture with President-elect Muizzu’s apparent tilt towards China signalling potential tectonic shift in regional alignments. While the allure of Chinese investments is evident, past patterns suggest that such engagements often come with strings attached, risking economic independence with potential threats to sovereignty. The historical bond with India rooted in mutual respect and shared interests, has ensured stability and growth for the Maldives. As the Maldives navigates its diplomatic path, it’s imperative to recognise the long-term implications of these choices. Over-reliance on China, given its track record, might provide short-term gains but could lead to long-term vulnerabilities, threatening Maldives autonomy, regional harmony and its historically enriched and etched relationship with India.

Disinformation Hindus Misinformation

657

‘Sanatan Dharma is a Way of Life’

Where are the limits to this culture of ‘Aham Brahmasmi’, exhilarating mode of realised, liberated being Oopalee Operajita Rahul Gandhi’s recent article on Hinduism/Sanatan Dharma (“Satyam Shivam Sundaram”, Indian Express, October 1) is, tragically, largely based on fear. In the first paragraph alone he uses “fear” and “frightening” multiple times. Why would anyone want to spend their lives recoiling in fear? A sense of overriding fear destroys everything else. The piece is obviously aimed at a certain enclave and by being circumlocutory and agenda driven and hence, Gandhi loses sight of the central tenet of his own essay. As a little girl in Rishi Valley School, the first — and most important — lesson I received from our founder J Krishnamurti’s teaching, was the importance of freedom from fear. I recall the very moment he spoke to us, in our small auditorium, about fearing the idea of a snake more than the snake itself. I was seven: It was a transformational moment in my life. Shashi Tharoor sends this article up on Twitter / X, gushing about its ocean imagery as if it is something novel, whereas, the ocean and water are dominant metaphors in ancient dharmic texts. The Taittiriya Upanishad, for example, describes the relation of five koshas (sheaths, in humankind) to water. The “Aquatic Absolute” (inspired by Vedanta), runs much later through Rabindranath Tagore’s writings as well. Tharoor also says on Twitter / X that there’s “nothing new to say in Hinduism” — a surprising statement, especially emanating from him — which is both meshuga and lacking in veracity. I read from the Upanishads, the Vedas, the Valmiki Ramayana, and the Puranas, almost each day — and the limitless wealth in them is as vast as the universe. It is ironic that Rahul Gandhi comes up with this article when he has been conspicuously silent these many weeks, as his party’s coalition partners have mutilated the Sanatan Dharma, without remotely understanding it. Mum has been his deafening word. Some duplicitous leaders have ferociously attacked the Sanatan Dharma, both in India and, reprehensibly, on foreign shores, on many occasions, for the sake of appeasement — the hypocrisy is galling, but predictable. What’s driving Gandhi’s current janeudhari agenda? And would it be conflated with the forthcoming state elections? Sanatan Dharma is certainly a culture, an unbroken civilisational reality, and richly felt experience; because a culture is a way of life, a cultivation of the treasured self, and larger than any set of religious prescriptions. For millennia, this dharma has valorised the knowledge of the self (the atman), which the great sage Yajnavalkya views as identical to Brahman, or consciousness. We don’t swim in the oceans and, concomitantly, fear sinking — we swim to merge with the ocean, let our spirits sing, and set ourselves free. Rivers are, as individual souls (atman), merging into the supreme soul of the ocean of the immortal Brahman, (Mundaka Upanishad 3.2.8). Brahman has also been defined as “the creative principle which lies within the whole universe”. What’s to fear in that? And where are the limits to this culture — this exhilarating mode of realised, liberated Being (Aham Brahmasmi)? Nobody owns the Sanatan Dharma; but it has an ancient history, astounding intellectual rigour and richness, and a land of origin. It repeatedly alludes to the many, equally valid, paths to the Truth. But, kudos and gratitude to those who use their goodness and understanding to prevent it from being mauled by frequent, feral attacks from troglodytes. I recall a passage from an Upanishad: Tatha vidvan namah-rupad vimuktaha/Parat-param purusham upaiti divyam [The knower of Brahman casts aside all names and forms, and attains to the Supreme Being (Energy)], which is above all conceivable divinities in the cosmos. Thus, the Supreme Being becomes our whole. (Author has been a distinguished fellow at Carnegie Mellon University since 1990. She is a global advisor on public policy, communication, and international relations. This write up first appeared in The Indian Express)

Disinformation Geopolitics Misinformation Policy Security

531

Canada’s Darkening Horizon: Red Flags and Alarming Trends

The dynamics between India and Canada are treading on thin ice, revealing a landscape where Canada’s interests seem to be diverging significantly from Prime Minister Trudeau’s actions and statements. It’s crucially morphing into a “Canada versus Trudeau” scenario, highlighting an urgent call for a recalibration of Canada’s stance. Dive deeper into the unfolding scenario and explore potential resolutions in CIHS special report on “Canada’s Darkening Horizon: Red Flags and Alarming Trends”

Disinformation Geopolitics Misinformation Pakistan Policy Security

557

Justin Trudeau on a Sticky Wicket!

Khalistani terror links, snapping ties with Bharat, ignoring bread and butter issues, dissent within ruling party may not help Canadian PM secure a fresh mandate Dr Amrit Pal Kaur Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made explosive comments on September 19 suspecting Indian role in killing of terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023. Outrageous as these comments were, they were damaging in equanimity. Trudeau’s statements within and outside the Canadian Parliament led to an unwanted and unwarranted diplomatic war with India that could and should have been avoided. Given that Trudeau is leading a minority government with support from parties like New Democratic Party, it seems to be his political exigency to comment on any and everything Indian. The myopic view of the present Canadian dispensation with regard to Indo-Canadian relations only puts a mammoth question mark on Trudeau’s acumen as a statesman. Instead of behaving like head of a leading country like Canada, Trudeau managed to cut a sorry figure for himself in global international political matrix. Big question, however is, why Trudeau jumped the gun and declare something which may not be true at all. Did the purported ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence sharing mechanism that includes US, United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and New Zealand fail to deliver? The reasons are palpable. The drama in wake of his visit to Delhi for G-20 summit, much on the line of Shakespearean script, was peppered with generous amount of prejudice against India acted as immediate trigger for his outpouring in Parliament. It is more than clear that Trudeau is playing to domestic gallery with the allegations against India. As much as he wishes to make it an issue of international nature, it is essentially a domestic concern for Canada. As the New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh, a sikh descent, is a crucial partner in Trudeau Government and Sikhs hold crucial votes in the Canadian elections. Therefore, his inkling towards everything Sikh is quite evident. There is clear evidence of Canadian Government’s support to extremist groups which have terror links as well as entertain separatist agenda against India. From facilitating Khalistani referendum to permission for vile speeches against India, the separatists have been given support short of recognition by the Canadian Government. The killing of Nijjar is portrayed as an assassination project of Government of India in the light of his terror history. Nijjar, an Indian citizen, had reached Canada seeking political asylum in 1997 after two failed attempts and with forged documents. In Canada, he eventually became the chief of Khalistan Tiger Force. He became the leader of a Gurudwara committee in Surrey, British Columbia in 2020. Nijjar was a deemed terrorist as notified by Government of India for his involvement in terror related activities in the country. This perhaps worked to Trudeau’s advantage and against India. However, there are other aspects that Trudeau seems to be happily oblivious to or conveniently ignored. For one, the Sikh diasporic politics in Canada is as much about the heft and influence among hardworking community and the leadership of a Gurudwara is one such accolade which contributes to a Sikh death might have to do with leadership of Gurudwara as well as the local politics of his region. Second, there are credible reports that Nijjar was involved in the terrorist activities in India including a bomb blast in Punjab. He is known to have visited Pakistan to meet his links there. Third, as much as Trudeau believes in assassination theories, India is a peace loving and rule abiding democratic country with a long-standing impeccable record that’s under constant scrutiny. Trudeau and his government do not seem to realise the dangerous nature of separatist or extremists driven politics. Clearly, they have not witnessed the violence and fear of terrorism on the scale Indians and especially people of Punjab have seen. Separatists came to India via the Canadian route as there are hardly any takers in India for it. Way too much blood has been shed and precious lives have been lost to the grotesque creature of terrorism that its knock on the doors of Punjab makes Punjabis fearful. It took decades to restore semblance of normalcy in Punjab and the separatist agenda seeks to undo it. Indian government’s fury is understandable given the context and recent terror history. No one in India wants to turn the clock back to vile 80’s. Peace, love and stability are preached in Sikhism and Sikhs of today seek to maintain it in their homeland. Trudeau’s petty politics seeks to threaten it without realizing the fragile nature of this calm. Fanning separatist flames may have grave repercussions in Canada and India well. Indians, of all faiths, who do not vouch the handful separatist fringe elements are being threatened under the very eye of the administration. Security of Indian Diplomatic corps is also compromised when the separatists protested outside Indian Consulate, distributed flyers with names of Indian diplomats and put up posters. These grave incidences not only present a weak figure of Trudeau Government abroad but also create a fearful environment within Canada. These developments propelled Indian government to temporarily stay on issuing visas to Canadian nationals. Whereas India is accused of violating Canadian sovereignty, Canada has not performed its duty to protect the Indians, their properties, businesses, jobs and Indian diplomats. Trudeau has conveniently resorted to a cover up of these facts. In fact, if not controlled, the separatists may even become a credible threat to Canadian security as well when this creature that Trudeau is nurturing turns to face him. He does not seem to realize that terrorism has no religion and does not harbour faith in humanity and no amount of sugarcoating will change its essential nature. If the hope is to fan a fire across continents will keep their hearth safe, then history has shown time and again that chickens eventually come home to roost. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has shown anything but statesmanship for petty gains in domestic politics costing the nation a

Geopolitics Leadership Media Policy Security Technology

538

Out to Conquer!

Playing right, pursuing human centre policy framework with strategic independence will help Bharat regain its exalted status post G-20! K.A.Badarinath When Walter Russell Mead pointed to emergence of India as a world power after last week’s tremendously successful G-20 summit held under her Presidency, there were enough sneers and jeers from within the country. The learned professor for foreign affairs and humanities at Bard College in New York may have been amused at the way Indian opposition parties’ criticism of G-20 summit in New Delhi that whipped up ‘hundred per cent consensus” declaration. Mead, also a fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship at Hudson Institute was not out of place when he identified emergence of India as a world power as part of three tectonic shifts in global order. The celebrated Wall Street Journal columnist beautifully summed up the post-summit world order as, “India rising, China and Russia seething, Europe shrinking and America dithering…” This is not a solitary view that was available before, during or after the summit. African Union President Azali Assoumani went one step further to state that India has overtaken China as a super power that arrived on the global stage a few years back. Let’s consider Jim O Neill, celebrated economist known for having coined acronym BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) group of developing countries descrition of Prime Minister Narendra Modi being the ‘ clear winner’. Mead, Assoumani and O Neill may have differing views like several others on top global forums that would be relevant or those getting into diminution in medium to long term. Most were however were unanimous on India and Prime Minister Modi making the best out of G-20. And, they do not mince words on what holds out for India. G-7’s waning influence is something that’s written on the wall and one would only be blind not to see it given Europe’s decline and Canada being in irretrievable mess of sorts. BRIC, on the other hand, as visualized by Jim O Neill was different from what the grouping has emerged to be today. South Africa joining the group of large developing countries in 1999 was the first step towards its expanding arc of influence. Its first expansion however happened only last month when six countries were inducted as full members of BRICS turning it into leading to BRICS Plus. On the parallel, G-20 would have been dead and irrelevant in case there was nothing substantive to take home in the ‘New Delhi’ declaration running into 83-paras on a clutch of global issues. G-20 Plus emergence with joining of African Union has rendered this group ‘prima dona’ position in global sweepstakes on economic and development order. With Ukraine war becoming a sticking point in the negotiations, G-20 formally launched itself into realm of geo-political and security issues. This in turn led to expansion of its mandate albeit indirectly. Aging outfits like United Nations and its umbrella of organizations have lost sheen to these emerging stars like the BRICS Plus or G-20 Plus. Given the intransigence to reform, Britten Wood institutions like World Bank and IMF may have to make way for new kids on the block in the development finance space. Fresher organizations like Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), BRICS New Development Bank or proposed outfits for Green Energy financing may take the decades old multi-lateral funding institutions. Democratization of these organizations and reorienting them to finance developing and least developed countries is something Prime Minister Modi has been harping upon. With Western Europe especially Germany, France and Italy losing pole position, it’s no brainer to say that Bharat has taken centre stage in global engagement. Strategic independence in its foreign policy is something that has stood out big especially during last ten years. And, this open and flexible policy framework will work well at least another ten years. Not going the Russian or Western way on Ukraine war is an example to emulate going forward. Getting into one coterie or other is the easiest option that has been set aside by Prime Minister Modi and his point man Subramaniam Jaishankar and national security advisor Ajit Doval. One factor to watch out for is China, its expansionist drive financed by oligarchs close to the country’s communist party and President Xi Jingping’s insatiable urge for complete control within and outside. Over to Bharat! (author is Director & Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated & Holistic Studies, a non-partisan think tank based in New Delhi)

Business Economy Geopolitics Leadership Media Policy

585

Bharat pulls it off!

As G-20 President, Bharat achieved the impossible with New Delhi declaration, exclusive economic corridor to rival China, bio-fuel alliance & African Union induction to push for Global South. K.A.Badarinath Off late, the moniker ‘Global South’ resonated in these parts of the world with Bharat pushing for thrust on developing and least developed countries hitherto grouped as G-77. Security analysts in particular were not very gung-ho on having this group as the biggest focus of Indian G-20 Presidency given that the block had China with extreme and expansionist plans. But, if G-20 New Delhi declaration adopted by global leaders on Friday ahead of schedule is any indication, Bharat’s Presidium ambitions, strategy and thrust seems to have worked around ‘very fine balance’. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and tenacity carried the day contrary to western analysts’ summation that New Delhi leaders’ summit was a ‘wash out’ and there would be no ‘declaration’. They pointed to deep divide between Western leaders and China – Russia standing their ground on Ukraine war. Bharat and Modi seems to have achieved virtually the impossible with hundred per cent consensus on 83 paragraphs longish declaration that was approved by Presidents and Prime Ministers. And, Modi hit the gavel signalling a fruitful deal of ‘healing, harmony and hope’. This proved many Western analysts wrong as they seem to have under-estimated Bharat’s leadership, Modi’s affable nature and posturing at G-20 that accounts for 85 per cent economic output and 75 per cent world trade. Several commentators had seen the latest declaration as a ‘climb down’ for the Western powers giving Russia the leeway or letting it off easily on Ukraine. That may not be the case. The US and Europe may have taken a tactical one step backwards while consenting the declaration including key lines on ‘war in Ukraine’. In fact, New Delhi declaration is an extension of what was clinched at Bali in November last year. Finding ground to clinch a ‘declaration’, keep the G-20 relevant and kicking, could be one interpretation. Not having a declaration was perhaps not an option or in the best interest of the global economies that are dangerously struggling to keep afloat in aftermath of Covid 19. Thirdly, the declaration demonstrates Bharat’s heft to move world powers. Fourthly, personal bonding Prime Minister Modi established with world leaders seems to have worked wonders in taking forward an ambitious economic and development agenda that’s inclusive and ambitious. Fourthly, western powers seem to have not lost the message after last minute pull out of Chinese President Xi Jingping from New Delhi summit. In fact, this led to acerbic comments from US President Joe Biden that Beijing had the option of being a ‘spoilsport’. Fifthly, world community especially the Western Europe and US could not have ignored finalizing a roadmap to pressing issues like poverty alleviation, transition to green energy, restructuring debt of several poor countries that have become bankrupt and digital public infrastructure and crypto currencies etc. Sixthly, Bharat stood like a solid rock in balancing countries, groups and blocks aspirations especially the G-7 and BRICS, Russia and China that led to virtual pulling apart of G-20 summit. Seventhly, let’s not forget that China got taste of its own medicine with announcement of Bharat, Middle East, Europe rail and roads spread economic corridor that includes United States. India, US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, France, Germany and Italy heads standing together to announce this huge infrastructure driven economic project is neither insignificant nor symbolic. It rivals the now jinxed Belt and Road initiative of China that pushed several developing countries into bankruptcy under unsustainable debt burden. The project envisages establishing rail, road and under-sea data connectivity lines from Mumbai to Western Europe running through shipping lines to Europe. This direct challenge to China comes at a time Belt and Road Initiative tenth anniversary is being celebrated by Beijing. Interestingly enough, the stakeholders in Bharat, Middle East and EU economic corridor will come up with roadmap for the project in 60-days along with funding plans. Apart from China angle, Bharat may not have to depend on yet another uneasy neighbour, Pakistan to establish over land and under-sea linkages with Europe. In the melee of Ukraine war centric conversation, induction of 55-member African Union into G-20 may have gone off very lightly. But, its significance is too huge to ignore. Bharat playing a key role in bringing African Union on board the coveted club is something to write home about. This is the first time that G-20 got into expansion mode after its formation in 1999. Most importantly, African Union will be a full permanent member of G-20 and equals the status enjoyed exclusively by 27-members European Union block till now. African Union’s induction into G-20 also explains India voicing the ‘Global South’ moniker in recent times. Yet another interesting outcome is setting up of bio-fuels alliance on the lines of International Solar Alliance which provides sharper focus to energy consumption transition especially in transport services and households globally. The 19-countries group is expected to push for shift in environment friendly alternative and environment friendly fuels in an effort to decarbonize economic expansion happening globally. G-20 Presidency, tactical positioning, hard play in diplomacy, soft showcasing of Bharat’s cultural, civilizational and philosophical connect with humanity apart from hard gains made from the leaders’ summit will ring in for long. (Author is Director & Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a New Delhi based non-partisan think tank)

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