CIHS – Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies

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India’s Space Supremacy on Ascent

Chandrayaan-3, ISRO’s premier lunar exploration is a milestone in its path to achieving greater excellence, cost competitiveness and emerge as space power Rahul Pawa Human space exploration has predominantly been shaped by superpowers of the Cold War era, with US space agency, NASA and its Russian counterpart, Roscosmos leading the way. This is a thing of the past. In recent decades, the biggest surprising candidate in contention is the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). Though it started late and faces financial limitations as well as technological constraints, ISRO has demonstrated remarkable resilience and determination, carving out a unique path as a top-tier global space agency. Established in 1969, almost two decades after NASA, ISRO embarked on its journey amidst a space race that was already in full swing. Tasked with the formidable mission of propelling India into the age of space technology and catching up with technologically advanced nations, ISRO’s journey has been far from smooth. In the aftermath of India’s nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998, the nation faced broad international sanctions. This development dealt a significant blow to India’s space aspirations when Russia, succumbing to pressure from the Western world, cited the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and withdrew from an agreement to transfer crucial cryogenic engine technology to India. The cryogenic engine technology was indispensable for the development of heavy-lift launch vehicles. Such a setback could have easily derailed India’s ambitions. Instead, it ignited ISRO’s determination, fuelling its drive towards self-reliance and innovation. Over next two decades, ISRO focused its efforts on developing its own cryogenic engine technology. Despite numerous challenges, India’s space agency remained unwavering and in January 2014, it successfully launched the GSLV-D5 launch vehicle, powered by an indigenously developed cryogenic engine. This achievement serves as an exemplary showcase of perseverance and resilience in the face of adversity, a testament to ISRO’s unwavering commitment to its mission and the Indian Republic. Yet, this is just one chapter in the compelling saga of ISRO, where hurdles are transformed into springboards for success. It is a testament to ISRO’s prowess in transforming adversity into opportunity, illuminating India’s flourishing technological capabilities. As ISRO navigated its journey, it pioneered a new paradigm in space exploration, combining cost-effectiveness with ambition, establishing itself as a trailblazer in affordable space technology. The Mars Orbiter Mission, known as Mangalyaan, epitomises this innovative spirit. Accomplished at a fraction of the cost of similar missions by other agencies, Mangalyaan was not just a frugal exploration but a powerful demonstration of ISRO’s formidable capabilities to the world. A vivid illustration of ISRO’s economical yet ambitious spirit is its mastery of multi-launch capabilities, allowing multiple satellites to be taken into orbit with a single rocket. ISRO showcased this brilliantly in February 2017 when it successfully launched a record-breaking 104 satellites aboard a single PSLV-C37 rocket. This launch included not only India’s own earth observation satellite but also miniature satellites from several international players, underscoring ISRO’s leading role in the global commercial space industry. Furthermore, ISRO’s ability to maintain budgetary controls without compromising on scientific endeavours sets it apart from many international counterparts. Whether it is launching the world’s lightest satellite or sending a mission to Mars at a cost lower than a Hollywood blockbuster, ISRO’s exemplary record reflects that cost-effectiveness and ambitious exploration can indeed go hand in hand.  Chandrayaan-3, the latest iteration of ISRO’s flagship lunar exploration mission, is poised to embark on its momentous journey, aiming to achieve a soft landing in the Moon’s South Polar region on August 23, 2023 at 5:47 pm. This extraordinary endeavour, born out of years of rigorous scientific inquiry, stands as evidence of India’s expanding influence as a formidable force in space exploration. Chandrayaan-3 aims to succeed where its predecessor fell short, achieving a precise and controlled landing on the lunar surface. The proposition for an Indian moon mission was formally announced by former Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee during his 2003 Independence Day address, and in 2008, Chandrayaan-1 was launched, marking a significant milestone in India’s cosmic journey. Comprising a lunar orbiter and impactor, Chandrayaan-1 not only fulfilled its scientific ambitions but also propelled India into an elite group of lunar explorers. Even before Chandrayaan-1 landed, ISRO and Roscosmos planned its sequel, Chandrayaan-2, with the goal of a moon landing and rover exploration. Due to delays from Roscosmos, ISRO independently developed a lander, pushing the launch to 2019. Technical setbacks and rescheduling notwithstanding, Chandrayaan-2 finally took off on July 22, 2019. Tragically, a software glitch on September 6, 2019, caused the Chandrayaan-2 lander to malfunction, resulting in the loss of communication with ISRO and loss of both the lander and the rover. This incident led to the development of Chandrayaan-3, the next phase of the mission, with the ambitious aim of achieving a successful soft lunar landing. With the clock ticking down, ISRO is diligently overseeing the timeline for the lunar touchdown, taking into account elements such as lunar sunrise. In case circumstances demanded, the landing can be pushed to September from the scheduled August 23 this year. Every step forward brings India’s Chandrayaan-3 closer to a ground breaking achievement on the moon. Successfully achieving this would place India in an elite group of nations; to date, only the US, Russia, and China have accomplished this feat. Odyssey of ISRO embodies the indomitable spirit of human endeavour—an unwavering resolve, tireless perseverance, and self-reliance that magnify India’s ascent as an increasingly formidable space superpower, bolstering its commanding presence within the global space community. Having begun as a latecomer, ISRO has transcended the confines of limitations and boldly challenged established order, thereby demonstrating that constraints are merely catalysts for boundless opportunities. ISRO’s unwavering dedication to perpetual learning, adaptability, and evolution has empowered it to overcome formidable obstacles and lay a robust groundwork for future triumphs. Through a multitude of accomplishments, it has forged an upward trajectory for India, shaping it into a rising space superpower of exceptional versatility. (Author is Research Director at Centre for Integrated and Holistic

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Bangladesh’s Crossroads: Navigating Rising Extremism and Anti-Hindu Persecution

Rahul Pawa Since its inception in 1971, Bangladesh has borne witness to an alarming trend of persistent human rights violations against the Hindu minority. The initiation of this harrowing journey can be traced back to the Bangladesh Liberation War, which tragically saw hundreds of thousands – some estimates even escalating to 2.4 million – of Hindus losing their lives. In the subsequent two decades, from 1971 to 1991, the Hindu demographic saw a significant drop from constituting 13.5% of the population to a mere 9.2%. As time went by, the situation didn’t improve; the 2011 census data further revealed the Hindu population dwindling to 8.5%, showcasing the grim reality of a consistent Hindu exodus induced by relentless persecution. Instances of violence, particularly the distressing post-election attacks of 2001 where an estimated 200 Hindus were killed, and many more were displaced, serve as stark reminders of this sustained oppression. The history, darkened by the tales of these atrocities, underscores the urgent need for robust and comprehensive action to protect the rights and wellbeing of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority. Recently, the persecution of Hindus has taken an even more disturbing turn with the rise of Islamist extremism, spearheaded by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and their ideological ally Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). On Friday, July 28, 2023, these radical Islamist factions orchestrated a series of deplorable acts, magnified by a rally staged in the Naya Paltan area of Dhaka city. This gathering, attended by over one hundred thousand Islamists, served as the platform for the announcement of a continuous agitation program, delivered through a video message by BNP’s acting chairman and convicted terrorist, Tarique Rahman. This climate of fear and hostility has effectively marginalised Hindus, relegating them to the status of second-class citizens in their own homeland. Such developments pose serious challenges to Bangladesh’s secular fabric and its commitment to uphold human rights. On multiple instances, a host of leaders from the BNP have fearlessly expressed their intentions to strike back against every member of the Sheikh Hasina lead Awami League. Their rhetoric ominously suggests that the “agents of Awami League,” which includes Hindu supporters and India (Bharat), would be subjected to severe consequences should the BNP regain power. This hostile stance was reflected at the recent gathering as well, with attendees zealously participating in anti-India and anti-Hindu chants. A particularly disconcerting sentiment emerged from the crowd as they proclaimed, “Bangladesh is Muslimstan, Hindus go to Hindustan” – a blatant effort to exclude and marginalise the Hindu community, this sets a dangerous precedent for a potential escalation in an already volatile and strained environment. In stark contrast to the ominous atmosphere generated by the BNP rally, another event, a peace rally organised by the youth front of the Awami League, presented a deeply human and sympathetic face to the issues at hand. The rallying cry came from Purnima Rani Shil, a Hindu woman who suffered an unthinkable ordeal at the hands of BNP members at the tender age of 14, in the Ullapara area of Sirajganj district in 2001. In her moving testimony, Purnima conveyed the stark reality of what a BNP return to power might mean: “If BNP regains control, I fear thousands of Hindu girls may become victims of this notoriously anti-Hindu party. They stole my childhood and my youth. They exiled my family from our village. I found no justice anywhere, as from 2001 to 2006, the country fell into the clutches of Pakistani agents and enemies of humanity. Khaleda Zia is the matriarch of anti-Hindu atrocities, with her son, the convicted terrorist Tarique Rahman, functioning as a marionette of the Pakistanis. They aim to transform a secular Bangladesh into another Pakistan.”  Alarmingly, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party recently declared what they ominously labeled as the “final part of war” against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her governing body, the Awami League. Urging their supporters to make Dhaka city their stronghold until the ruling government is unseated, this call to arms rings a dangerous bell, not just in Bangladesh, but echoes ominously across the globe. What’s particularly disconcerting are the financial streams that the BNP is purportedly benefiting from. Media reports suggest that the party is being showered with millions of dollars from dubious sources. These funds, murkily acquired, are directed towards sustaining a challenge against the incumbent government. Even in the face of severe economic collapse, Pakistan appears to be pumping substantial sums into the coffers of the BNP, raising concerns over its vested interests. Disturbingly, infamous figures such as terrorist Dawood Ibrahim are believed to be aiding the ultra-Islamist party with substantial financial support. This level of global backing raises serious questions about the international networks of radicalism and the ideological hatred driving these alliances. The BNP is also believed to be deploying the power of propaganda to influence minds and fuel divisiveness. It has reportedly poured millions into lobbying activities across the United States and Europe.  Simultaneously, the BNP is staging an alarming media assault against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her government. Utilising the reach of social media and international news outlets, the party is disseminating a narrative steeped in extremist ideologies. This massive propaganda drive seeks to undermine the established peace and unity, as it fuels societal divisions on a large scale, aided and abetted by the malignant forces of Islamist hatred. The dangerous undertones of their activities are a stark reminder of the relentless threats that peace-loving societies face around the world and how nations that fall for such extremist views and ideas are destined to collapse. The persistent plight of the Hindu minority in Bangladesh, marked by rising religious extremism and significant financing of such factions, highlights the pressing challenges to peace, social harmony, and human rights in the region. As Bangladesh continues to grapple with these complex issues, the manner in which it safeguards minority rights and counters religious extremism will be pivotal. These developments, resonating far beyond national boundaries, necessitate vigilant observation and strategic intervention from regional and international stakeholders, underscoring the critical

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Reject European Centric Narratives on India

Reclaiming Indian heritage, knowledge systems, cultural and spiritual vision based on Hindu way of life represent real India Rohan Giri At the launch of “Narrative ka Mayajal” authored by former Rajya Sabha Member Balbir Punj, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Sar Karyavah (General Secretary) Dattatreya Hosabale said “the so-called educated people and media in Bharat have embraced Euro-centric ideas and narratives that got deeply ingrained in our lives, education system, and societal perspective. The narrative cannot transform until we relinquish this colonial mind set.” This view on conversations and public discourse in India held by Hindu centric RSS has kicked off a serious debate in India i.e. Bharat. India narrative and the colonial mindset are interconnected and have a long history dating back to the era of imperialist British rule pre-independence. Understanding this relationship requires examining how colonialism shaped Indian mindset and continues to influence narratives in the country even after 75-years post-independence. Colonial subservient mind-set was conveniently adopted by the elitist few that worked in tandem with their British masters. This mind set always centred on British superiority syndrome and looked down at the Indian way of life or society.  After having destroyed rich cultural heritage, indigenous knowledge systems and ethos, British rulers had systematically perpetuated the inferiority complex through education, media, academics, thinking processes and administrative policies. British portrayed themselves as the civilizing force, claiming to bring modernity, progress, and enlightenment to the “backward” and “uncivilized” Indians aggressively peddled by Lord Macaulay’s education doctrine. Such ideas were propagated to justify British rule and retain its control on Indian people, her resources, assets and destroy her culture, heritage and sanatan dharma. Education played a crucial role in shaping the colonial mindset. The British introduced a Western-style of education system that glorified British culture, history and achievements while denigrating Indian heritage and traditions. This led to devaluing indigenous knowledge systems and cultural practices, making many Indians internalize a sense of inferiority and cultural loss. At the book launch, Dattatreya Hosable said before the British came, Indians never underestimated themselves and fought against their enemies with courage and confidence. But the British created a narrative that made us doubt our own abilities. Also, he said they made us hate ourselves; such a narrative was spread by their agents through academia, universities, think tanks, international media and the judiciary. RSS strongly believes that we need to rediscover true India in the term of Atma Nirbhar Bharat, Hosabale stated.   At the last year customary Vijayadashami speech, RSS Sarsanghchalak (Head) Dr Mohan Bhagwat had said, “We need a Swa-centric approach towards history of India’s freedom movement.” British had primarily written and controlled the narrative during colonial rule presenting India through Euro-centric lens as it did in Africa and elsewhere. Indigenous perspectives and voices were marginalized and Indian history, culture, and achievements were often misrepresented or ignored. After gaining independence in 1947, India began the process of nation-building and redefining its narrative. However, the colonial legacy continued to have profound impact. The colonial mindset left its mark on the education system, administrative structures and social norms, which required conscious efforts to decolonize and reclaim Bharat’s identity. On the same line, Sah-Sarkaryavah Arun Kumar, at launch of the book, “SWA: Struggle for National Selfhood”, written by J Nand Kumar, convenor of Pragya Pravah had said, “It’s not time for blame. It is the time for introspection and self-correction. Instead of blaming leftists and other historians who distorted history, we must put dedicated efforts to bring out the truth. There is need for a positive and constructive approach.”  He had said, “The English-educated Indians who gained control over the institutions post-1911 reduced the idea of independence (Swatantrata) to just self-rule (Swadheenta) and ended up accepting India’s partition.” There is a need to change the fabricated stories that misrepresent India’s picture, culture, identity and rich heritage. RSS call for a positive and constructive approach to bring out the truth reflects the desire to overcome the distorted historical narratives and bridge the gap between the colonial mindset and the essence of India’s identity. Challenging and overcoming the colonial mindset is an ongoing process, and it requires collective effort to promote a more inclusive, diverse, and authentic representation. It is essential to recognize and rectify the impact of colonialism on the Indian narrative and the need for a conscious effort to regain confidence in India’s cultural heritage and true identity. By challenging misrepresentations and embracing a Swa-Centric approach, India can pave the way for a more authentic and inclusive narrative that aligns with its historical, cultural, and spiritual heritage. (Author is Operations Manager at New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)

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Academic Research or Hit Job?

Ashoka University paper deviously questions Indian electoral outcomes in the guise of research with very little basis or evidence Vinod Kumar Shukla It took over four years for Ashoka University to come up with 50-page research paper ‘Democratic Backsliding in the World’s Largest Democracy’ by Sabyasachi Das which terms 2019 Lok Sabha polls outcome as electoral fraud. The paper lacks objectivity when it outlines that polls were manipulated in closely contested constituencies. Manipulations at the time of voter registration, voting and counting are other findings that this paper boasts of. Insinuations that Muslims were deliberately de-franchised by removing their names from voter lists too figured in the report as one of the tools of manipulation. The research paper suggests that manipulation has its impact on nine to 18 seats with victory margin of three to seven per cent. Even if one were to believe that the data and findings were on dot, the outcomes would not have been tilted or would have remained unaffected as BJP had won 303 seats out of 543. BJP would have still formed the government even if it had lost all 18 seats as the paper claims. Another twisted argument claims that BJP won a disproportionately higher number of closely contested seats where it was in power. State cadre officers’ credentials have also been questioned in the report, They have been squarely held responsible for votes manipulation by charging that observers from state services of BJP-ruled states were in large numbers. Now, the interpretation that all state level officers resorted to manipulating outcomes to ensure a BJP victory was neither backed with evidence nor data or facts. This conclusion is more imaginary rather than being a fact. It’s libellous too. Let’s do a fact check on closely contested 98 seats with less than five per cent victory margins of which BJP had won 43 seats (roughly 44 per cent). Out of these seats, the BJP won 22 in states that it was in power. The paper in guise of research ignores the fact that BJP won equal number of seats from opposition parties ruled states. Ashoka University paper does not have any plausible explanation to insidious job in the name academic research.   Contrary to what Ashoka University academic claims, 2019 elections were not at all closely contested as BJP led by its mascot Narendra Modi had secured over 50 per cent votes share in 224 seats. This constitutes about 75 per cent seats that BJP garnered. Why does Ashoka University paper set aside a glaring fact that BJP bagged more seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 Lok Sabha polls at 71 when SP was in power. This is against 62 seats won in 2019 when it was in the saddle. In 2019, there was a Congress government in Madhya Pradesh but BJP had won 28 seats out of 29; it had won all seats in Rajasthan while nine out of 11 in Chhattisgarh. Karnataka too was ruled by the opposition when BJP and its ally had won 26 seats out of 28 seats. West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana were such states where BJP did well despite opposition governments. The Quint was quoted in the Ashoka University paper to point out variance in votes polled through Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and votes counted. The paper claims that there was variance in 373 seats but was able to provide examples of 11 seats where it purportedly found discrepancies. Of these, five were won by the BJP and six by others. Actually the author needs basic lessons in politics and election dynamics as closely contested seats won by any political party by no means suggest manipulation. They have won with organisational strength, social engineering, compatibility of alliance partners, campaign strategy, strength of economic and development agenda, star campaigners and benefits provided to people by the government. In closely contested elections, taking voters to booths on polling day matters the most and BJP is good at it. Election management in BJP is done with such precision that it goes for person to person, door to door contact with volunteers or party people marked to each voter or the family. So, BJP predictions on victory or outcomes made periodically is based on its extensive campaign machinery inputs and not conjecture, predictions made by media outlets or hear say. Asoka University paper also talks about deletion of Muslim votes from electoral lists thereby questioning the very basic electoral credential in India that has been hailed as ‘biggest festival of democracy’ by international agencies as well. The report commits another big blunder by completely ignoring notices given to parties like Samajwadi Party of Akhilesh Yadav to provide proof in support of his allegations on deletion of muslims names from the electoral lists. Actually, the case of Muslim vote banks is the other way round as Bangladeshi and Rohingya infiltrators are illegally getting inducted into voter lists not only changing demographies but are a threat to democracy. So, Ashoka University report is not academic work but a hit job done on behalf of certain political parties.  Report findings or observations in such cases are predetermined and arguments, data points or methodology is designed to such false narratives. Such reports are later amplified by leaders like Arvind Kejriwal and Mamata Banerjee to drive their own nefarious agenda. They have always been questioning Election Commission of India, Electronic Voting Machines and voter verified paper audit trail (VV PAT) whenever they lost elections or people rejected them. If non-BJP parties were to be elected, then these very parties hail such ‘electoral outcomes’ as ‘victory to democracy’.  As if in second thought, Ashoka University meanwhile distanced itself from findings in the paper commission by the institution. But question remains, who assigned the project? Who funded it? The university must come clean as it puts a big question mark on credibility of constitutional bodies of the country like Election Commission of India. Ashoka University in any case is known in academic circles for debunking alternative socio-economic

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Trudeau goes Khalistan, Pakistan way!

Latest reshuffle in his council of ministers may not have addressed concerns on Canadian soil becoming fulcrum of anti-India elements Rohan Giri Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has recently reshuffled his council of ministers ahead of the upcoming general elections. This reshuffle involved making change of portfolios and work responsibilities of ministers along with four Indo-Canadians. As Canada reconfigured its leadership, discerning and assessing its implications for the country’s partners like India becomes pertinent. Evolving political dynamics in Canada and resulting strategic adjustments warrant careful consideration in the global arena. In specific, four Indo-Canadian ministers’ responsibilities were changed or promoted: Anita Anand, Kamal Khera, Harjit Sajjan, and Arif Virani. Notably, Anita Anand was promoted as President of Treasury Board, transitioning from her previous role as the Minister of National Defense. Similarly, Kamal Khera moved from a senior portfolio to become Minister for Diversity, Inclusion, and Persons with Disabilities. Harjit Sajjan, having served as International Development Minister, now holds the position of Minister for Emergency Preparedness. Arif Virani, another Indian-Canadian and the representative of Parkdale-High Park in Toronto made his cabinet debut as the Minister of Justice and Attorney General. Understanding their influence and engagement within the sizeable Indo-Canadian community and Indian affairs becomes crucial owing to the significant role overseas Indians play in influencing New Delhi’s relations with Ottawa. Professor-turned-politician Anita Anand is particularly vocal about her Indian heritage taking immense pride in her grandfather, freedom fighter VA Sundaram, who worked alongside Mahatma Gandhi during the freedom struggle. Anand’s involvement extended to assisting the panel in investigating tragic 1985 Air India Kanishka bombing. On 35th anniversary of the bombing, she tweeted, “The victims of the bombing of Air India 182 and their families are in my thoughts today and always. I am privileged to know some of you and honour the memories of your loved ones with you.” Anita Anand also held a position on advisory board of the Canada India Foundation, an organisation established in 2007 to bolster bilateral ties. During the cabinet transition, Kamalpreet Khera, representative for Brampton West in the House of Commons has taken on significant role of Minister for Diversity, Inclusion, and Persons with Disabilities. Khera’s Indo-Canadian background goes back to her ancestors from Ropar in Punjab. She is known to have close ties with Navdeep Bains, a former Canadian politician who served as Minister of Innovation, Science, and Industry during 2015 – 21. There have been reports pointing to strong links Navdeep Bains has with Khalistani movement. Bains has allegedly been groomed by World Sikh Organization (WSO), a pro-Khalistan hard line organisation accused of radicalizing Sikh community and fostering divisions apart from piloting anti-India propaganda. Relationship between Navdeep Bains and Kamalpreet Khera is said to be more than just acquaintanceship. Bains is regarded as mentor and guide to Khera. Indian authorities have expressed their concern to the Canadian government multiple times regarding separatist activities on the latter’s soil. Prime Minister Trudeau’s cabinet reshuffle also sparked reports on Harjit Sajjan, his association with Khalistani elements and his tacit support for their radical activities. Hitherto Punjab Chief Minister, Captain Amarinder Singh had publicly ostracised Sajjan as a “Khalistani supporter”. Singh had been a proponent of imposing sanctions on Canada for its ‘open and covert’ support to Khalistani terrorists. Captain Singh had called for global pressure on Canada to prevent the use of its soil for perpetrating terror against India, particularly the Sikh community targeted by Khalistani terrorists. Reports pointed to Harjit Sajjan’s parents, Kundan Singh Sajjan and Vidya Kaur Sajjan’s long term membership of WSO. Another notable Indo-Canadian that figured in the latest cabinet reshuffle is Arif Virani, who spent 15 years as human rights and constitutional lawyer before entering politics. Virani is vocal about purported Islamophobia and remained deeply committed to the trumped up issue. Since his initial election, he consistently advocated against Islamophobia, both on the ground and within the Parliament. Notably, he sought inputs from Muslim groups on how to tackle online hate faced by Muslims before Liberals introduced Bill C-36 in June 2021. Primary objective of this bill was to combat online hate with focus on addressing Islamophobia that Virani thinks is prevalent. Arif Virani was involved in a study on M-103, a non-binding motion in the 42nd Canadian Parliament urging the government to condemn Islamophobia and all forms of systemic racism and religious discrimination. Additionally, he is associated with the Aga Khan Foundation of Canada, an organisation working in various countries. The foundation faced accusations of involvement in money laundering Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to include Khalistani and Pakistani jihadist elements in his council of ministers may not go well with New Delhi. Comprehensive research conducted by veteran journalist Terry Milewski titled, “Khalistan: A Project of Pakistan” unequivocally demonstrates that the Khalistan movement poses not only a threat to India but also significant concern for Canada. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s undeniable link with anti-India elements underscore the risk it poses to bilateral relations and global security environment. (Author is operations manager at Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, non-partisan think tank based in New Delhi)

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Quirky Chinese leadership undependable!

Retake ‘Aksai Chin’ under Chinese occupation, stop its draconian expansionist aggression and bring peace to Indian borders K.A.Badarinath China is at its old dark ways again. Otherwise, there’s no reason why three Indian Wushu sports persons from Arunachal Pradesh, Nyeman Wangsu, Onilu Tega and Mepung Lapgu, were given stapled visas. India’s Wushu team was to head for Chengdu to participate in the World University Games beginning Friday. The stapled visas issue is symptomatic of China’s war games and its claim on Arunachal Pradesh that’s integral to Bharat. The latest fracas seems to be scripted and directed by none other than the Chinese Oligarchs’ frontman and President, Xi Jingping who’s into his third term as head of Chinese Communist Party and also head of all powerful military commission. Most significant Chinese claim on Arunachal Pradesh ala indirectly through stapled visas comes on a day when three key developments were reported. Dichotomy in Chinese military checkers comes to fore on a day when Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jingping spoke on phone to bring about stability on the borders. In fact, this was the first recorded conversation of the two leaders after their brief in person informal interaction at Bali as part of G-20 group at the invitation of Indonesian President. After the Galwan valley Chinese misadventure, there has been no engagement between heads of state and President Xi Jingping was busy ensuring third Presidential term for himself apart from ‘cleansing’ the party from his political rivals and policy antagonists. ‘Stapled visas’ hogged headlines also on a day when reports poured in about the two leaders’ discussion on military standoff during April – May 2020 in Eastern Ladakh. What has induced ‘stapled visas’ issue larger significance is the reports of Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) heightened build up from Eastern Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh borders during last few weeks? Nineteen rounds of corps commander level talks between Indian and Chinese side have not yielded results nor have led to sensitizing PLA Generals or belligerent Communist leadership in China that rules its own people with an iron fist. Sense that one gets is China’s outright refusal to disengage from at the strategic Depsang plains and Charding Ninhlunh nallah track junction at the Demchock in Eastern Ladakh. On the other hand, reports suggest continued build-up of bunkers, posts, artillery positions, surface to air missile systems, radar sites and ammunition storages. Development of new helipads, roads, dual use villages development and last mile connectivity has also been on the rise across the border leading to beliefs that negotiations at political level may ‘not yield’ on the ground results but discussions have to happen. Stapled visas incident is seen more as one step further in China’s grand expansionist plan and communist vision to occupy others’ land disregarding international treaties, pacts and ‘gentlemen’ agreements to not change on-the-ground goal posts. Only way to put an end to this psycho-warfare like stapled visas is to firmly retake ‘Aksai Chin’ under its ‘illegal’ occupation since 1950s and held after the 1962 war. China’s claim on Aksai Chin was made a couple of years after Indian Constitution was adopted in 1950 that included whole of Jammu and Kashmir along with Ladakh. Aksai Chin was part of Ladakh till the Chinese claim leading to its occupation in ‘50s. In fact, no Chinese maps till 1920s even showed Aksai Chin as part of China. Even in 1930s map of Sinkiang or Xinjiang, Kunlun mountains were marked as Chinese boundary and not the Karakoram range. Chinese posturing and war games that were shaped in ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy doctrine is essentially unsustainable in any bilateral relations. Beijing will have to realize that false claims, wolf warrior diplomacy combined with on-ground, air and water bound aggression may not help in positioning itself as a leader as well. In fact, Qin Gang who’s been closest aide to President Xi Jingping and later anointed a state councillor was considered architect of wolf warrior diplomacy doctrine adopted by Chinese Communist Party as one of its key principles in engaging with the world. While there’s no trace of ‘missing’ Qin Gang, bringing Wang Li back as top Chinese diplomat and foreign minister may not help clear the air. Openness, flexibility and clarity of thought and attitude make great world powers. China has a long way to go leaving its shady past, false claims and drudgery that the communist regime is known for.  (author is Director and Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies,  non-partisan think tank based in New Delhi)

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Good numbers, greater challenges!

Antyodaya combined with family centric approach and spiritual odyssey may provide holistic solution to war against poverty K.A.Badarinath It’s heartening that socio-economic development agenda pursued by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has begun to pay off rich dividends. On twelve development indicators that denote poverty levels, there has been substantive progress in the way 1.4 billion Indians live, pursue their aspirations and engage to achieve life objectives. The Multi-dimensional Poverty Index (MPI) : Progress Review 2023 report released by Niti Aayog a couple of days back is fairly comprehensive and widely accepted on methodology, sampling and computational tools. Going by this report, over 135 million Indians escaped poverty during 2015-21 under Prime Minister Modi-led government. Many naysayers may tend to dispute these figures and findings. ‘Actual delivery’ and ‘plugging leakage of scarce resources’ in over a dozen of government schemes seem to have made this eminently possible. The MPI was launched in 2021 in line with United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Oxford Poverty and Development Initiative (OPDI) surveys globally. Our own MPI covered 707 administrative districts in 28 states and eight union territories to derive that poverty is on definitive decline curve in India. Significant changes have been reported on 12 indicators like nutrition, child and adolescent mortality, maternal health, years of schooling, school attendance, cooking fuel availability, sanitation, and access to clean drinking water, electricity, housing, assets, and bank accounts. These indicators have been spread across three broad areas i.e. education, healthcare and standard of living for Indians that was reviewed for years 2015-16 to 2020-21. Most significant finding of this survey has been that states like Uttar Pradesh have done extremely well with over 34.3 million people escaping poverty. States like opposition ruled Bihar, Rajasthan; BJD ruled Odisha and BJP held Madhya Pradesh seem to have performed well in tackling extreme poverty. Hitherto, these very states were regarded as laggards on socio-economic development parameters. Most interesting aspect is steep reduction in poverty levels across rural India dropping to 19.28 per cent from 32.59 per cent in the five-year period. But, poverty reduction has been at lower levels in cities at 5.27 per cent from earlier 8.65 per cent. Even after about 10 per cent aggregate decrease in poverty levels, highest numbers of poor people continue to live in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Meghalaya and Madhya Pradesh going by Niti Aayog report. Now, the big question is whether war on poverty in India has entered a decisive phase. Obviously, much more may have to be done to turn India into a developed country by 2047 on all fronts including the Happiness Index. One sure way of measuring poverty as per UNDP was earnings at US $ two per day. There is no empirical data on number of people earning minimum wages in India. Statutorily, national minimum wages per day was set at Rs 178. Though implementation at ground level has been skewed, the minimum wages threshold translates to $ 1.92 as against $ 2 prescribed by UNDP for a developing country like India. Again, state wise minimum wages are different thereby making an aggregate estimate virtually daunting. Accepted principle was that earnings and poverty alleviation have undeniable link thereby making wages singularly one of the most important parameters in counting the poor and tackling the menace. Challenges to alleviating poverty from India is definitely a herculean task that demands newer socio-economic development models that are neither western driven nor communist way of commanding heights principle. Reaching out to last man standing in true spirit of ‘antyodaya’ or ‘sarvodaya’, taking everyone in inclusive development mode is the sure shot prescription to wiping out poverty in Bharat. In fact, that was pushed for by philosophers like Vinoba Bhave, Deen Dayal Upadyaya and veteran labour leader Dattopant Thengdi and rejected by the Western economists’ gang. A tectonic shift in economic development model may have to be seriously attempted by the new government that takes charge in 2024, be it National Democratic Alliance led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi or the opposition alliance of 26 political parties that seek to meekly challenge him. Shifting gears may not be easy if the war on poverty has to be won in the least possible time and not wait till 2047, centennial of Bharat’s independence. For this to happen, taking Indian growth story down below the district centres to evolve ‘self-reliant’ vibrant village clusters is an alternative that the next government can seriously consider. Going beyond districts and evolving villages-clusters is something that has only been talked about in seminar rooms and not attempted as a serious development model that’s unique to India. Strengthening grassroots governance especially in hinterlands as single window shops is one way to attack poverty and achieve self-reliance. As BJP gears up to roll-out its manifesto for next five years and vision document for next 25 years, taking governance to people’s doorstep is something it can consider as paradigm shift in its approach to eliminate poverty. Secondly, defining our own yardstick on ‘poverty’ is something that development experts may consider in next phase of India’s development strategy. Is earning $ 2 or $ 3 per day the benchmark or something beyond this bread and butter issue needs serious consideration? Thirdly, migration as a phenomenon has taken India by storm in last 75-years mostly after economic reforms of Harvard variety were forced down by Dr Manmohan Singh and his team. Migration from villages to urban centres and beyond to foreign shores has gripped this country which marks huge brain drain as well. Unless a holistic view of this phenomenon is taken, can we win the war against poverty? Fourthly, family centric approach to socio-economic conundrum confronting Indian people may widen the canvass for war on poverty as it pushes for basic shift in societal structures shaking away the shaky unrealistic western or socialistic foundations. Fifthly, redoing Indian society with spiritual content to happiness will complete the cycle in war against poverty. Finding holistic solutions to inadequacy of resources, governance at grassroots, earnings,

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De-risking to defanging currency, trade deals

Rupee, UPI, desi currency trade has taken world by storm. Prime Minister Modi thrust in France, UAE paying handsome dividends K.A. Badarinath Defanging to de-risking global trade and currency deals for India is what Prime Minister Narendra Modi achieved in his visit to France and United Arab Emirates (UAE) last week. Agreements concluded during Prime Minister Modi’s visit not only make trade and currency deals more advantageous from Indian perspective but also reflect the country’s growing confidence in shaping commercial partnerships across geographies. Otherwise, how would one explain taking United Payments Interface (UPI) and RuPay to France or for that matter, UAE?  In his West Asia sojourn, UAE and India’s decision to denominate bilateral trade in Rupees and Dirhams is again a big departure from dollar or Euro centric transactions. This is over and above bringing the UPI and RuPay to Abu Dhabi. Currency transactions at retail level on Indian digital platforms to large rupee denominated trade deals have been described by some analysts as ‘de-dollarization’ of Indian economy. But, India’s latest thrust on currency and trade front are more to do with her growing economic and investment muscle and acceptability rather than moving away from the US greenback or euro. Indians visit to the Eiffel Tower in France by purchasing tickets in Rupees may be simpler way of presenting the implications of latest agreements for hoi polloi. The deal involving Lyra of France and National Payments Corporation of India to become operative in September this year would mean much more than paying for tickets at tourist spots in rupees. Wider and willing acceptance of Indian Rupee in Europe is due to financial innovation making Indian digital payments platform UPI secure and affordable across continents. The decision to link United Payments Interface with UAE’s Instant Payment Platform (IPP) makes the country’s digital payments foray wider and deeper in West Asia. In fact, the deal between RBI and UAE’s Central Bank allows for RuPay and UAE Switch interoperable. India’s structured financial messaging system (SFMS) will go to UAE thereby instantly recognizing Indian debit and credit cards. Larger implication is that holding Indian Rupee by central banks and dealers globally by value and quantity will go up many-fold in few years from now. Also, internationalization of Indian rupee is on the verge of becoming a hard reality. Rupee denominated export and import of goods and services internationally will make the Indian currency more tradable given the large ticket size of these transactions. France and UAE are not isolated cases in accepting Rupee denominated trade deals, UPI, RuPay or Rupee Switch. Singapore’s PayNow had done a deal with NPCI to embark on UPI platform. It moved Indian digital payments platform to South East Asian one step further. In May this year, India and Russia had announced making payments easier through RuPay and Mir cards in both countries. UPI of India and Bank of Russia’s Faster Payments System are being linked to make seamless real time transactions in Rupees and Roubles a reality apart from deal on financial messaging systems.  Non Resident Indians (NRIs), businessmen, tourists and students in ten countries including Australia, Canada, US, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Kingdom apart from others could either receive or send money once their domestic bank accounts were linked to their international phone numbers. As per independent consultancy Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC), one billion rupee denominated transactions per day is estimated to happen in next two years through United Payments Interface and RuPay network. Already, over 73 per cent non-cash transactions in India have gone digital on UPI. Over 18 countries have either opened or in the process of opening Vostro accounts to settle trade deals in rupees or their respective local currencies moving away from US dollar, euro, UK pound or any major international currency. Latest to join this jamboree is Indonesia whose finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati firmly stated in Gandhinagar indicated that bilateral trade will happen in Rupees and Rupiah. Bangladesh went one step further and began trade settlements in Indian rupees. This was limited to US dollar till last week. India’s trade valued at US $ 1.6 trillion in last one year seem to have shaped the country’s strategy on cross border currency deals and rupee transactions. And, Indian strategy of gaining acceptability for rupee is however distinctly different from China’s ‘wolf worrier’ investment and loans strategy to gain dominance. Significant progress made by India on rupee’s acceptability and trade transactions cannot however sidestep the challenges in making it part of the reserve currency basket. Current strategy adopted by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Indian government has the potential to deliver notwithstanding its limitations. Unless rupee is increasingly used in current account transactions like investments and capital flows, internationalizing the currency may hit a wall. Secondly, as the RBI working group recommended, Rupee must get included in Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies maintained by International Monetary Fund (IMF) to hold its assets. Recalibration of Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) may have to be considered for hastening the path to internationalizing rupee. There has been serious discussion amongst BRICS countries to settle trade related transactions within the group in local currencies. A conscious decision on use of member countries’ currencies to square off trade deals would translate to democratization of economic world order. For the stakeholders, reduction in transactions costs, limiting the foreign exchange risks and more safeguards to the trade deals will be accrued apart from huge optimization in capital costs. India accounting for a modest two per cent of global trade in value terms limits internationalization of rupee. Similarly, there may be little to modest enthusiasm to denominate Indian debt globally in rupee terms instead of dollar. Internationalizing rupee and turning it to a currency in reserve is a long haul project for which a firm foundation has been laid by the Modi government. (Author is Director & Chief Executive of non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies based in New Delhi)

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Chinese Loan Apps: A Debt Trap to Death Trap

Rohan Chinese loan apps, which offer quick loans with minimal paperwork, have become increasingly popular among Indian borrowers. However, these apps have also been associated with incidents involving threats to borrowers and compromising their privacy. One distressing case occurred in Bangalore involving Tejas, a 22-year-old engineering student. Tejas faced severe torture from an agent due to his loan from a Chinese app named Slice and Kiss, which ultimately led to his tragic suicide. The questionable practices employed by these apps consistently undermine the privacy and security of citizens, while their excessively high-interest rates and lack of regulatory oversight present substantial challenges to the Indian economy. This analysis sheds light on the various aspects of this phenomenon, highlighting the challenges posed by Chinese lending apps in India and emphasizing their potential risks. Perilous for Indian Citizens Chinese lending apps expose borrowers’ personal and financial information to significant risks, potentially leading to severe breaches of privacy. These apps often impose exorbitant interest rates and concealed fees, trapping users in a cycle of debt. Many borrowers, often in urgent need of funds, remain unaware of the predatory lending practices employed, ultimately landing themselves in financial distress. Moreover, these apps are associated with unethical and aggressive debt-collection tactics. Borrowers who fail to make timely payments or encounter financial hardships often face harassment, intimidation, and public humiliation from collection agencies. Such practices can have profound psychological and emotional consequences, driving vulnerable individuals to despair and, tragically, even suicide. Furthermore, inadequate regulatory oversight and accountability for these apps amplify their risks. With inadequate scrutiny, these apps operate with impunity, exploiting the financial vulnerabilities of Indian citizens without facing appropriate consequences. Numerous reports have surfaced regarding representatives of these applications resorting to intimidation, harassment, and threats towards borrowers. Particularly during the Covid-19 lockdown, borrowers facing financial difficulties due to the pandemic have reported terrifying experiences, alleging they were subjected to coercive tactics regarding their debts. These threats often take the form of deceitful letters resembling official documents or the harassment of borrowers’ relatives. These networks facilitating fraudulent instant loans extend beyond Indian citizens, as Chinese youths and students have fallen victim to this practice. China witnessed a wave of incidents related to “loans for nudes,” where numerous cases emerged involving young female college students being coerced into providing explicit photos as collateral to ensure repayment to loan sharks. These instances shed light on China’s pervasive underground banking scandal, exposing the murky realm of loan sharks. The cases exemplify China’s growing consumerism, underdeveloped financial system, and lack of a comprehensive student loan program. The Chinese Underground Banking Scandal The Chinese Underground Banking Scandal sheds light on a disturbing reality that lies beneath the veneer of the financial system. This issue revolves around illicit financial operations conducted outside the purview of established banking institutions, operating clandestinely and evading regulatory oversight. An essential aspect of this scandal is the pervasive presence of underground banks operating as unlicensed and unregulated financial intermediaries. These clandestine institutions play a significant role in facilitating a wide range of illicit activities, such as money laundering, human trafficking, capital flight, tax evasion, and the financing of unlawful transactions. The scandal’s dark reality is characterized by exploiting economic loopholes and manipulating financial regulations. With inadequate regulation and enforcement, underground financial networks flourish, enabling criminals to clandestinely transfer substantial amounts of money across borders, obscuring these funds’ origins and actual purposes. Moreover, the Underground Banking Scandal carries global implications, involving transnational networks engaged in illicit financial transactions. These networks contribute to the challenges faced by international efforts to combat money laundering, terrorism financing, and other forms of transnational crimes. It is important to note that not all Chinese loan applications are directly involved with underground banking, and vice versa. However, an interconnectedness can occur when funds originating from loan applications enter the underground banking system. In such cases, underground banking networks may exploit or utilize loan application activities for illicit purposes, including money flows, money laundering, cross-border transactions, and regulatory challenges. Data Privacy and Security Concerns The rapid proliferation of Chinese loan applications in India has prompted severe data privacy and security concerns. These apps often demand extensive access to personal information, posing threats to users. The loan apps often necessitate comprehensive access to users’ personal information, such as complete names, addresses, phone numbers, social media profiles, bank account details, and even access to the user’s smartphone contacts. The sheer volume and sensitivity of the data collected endanger individuals’ privacy and raise the possibility of it being abused for unauthorised objectives. There have been reports and allegations that certain Chinese lending applications have been involved in misusing and manipulating user data. Data breaches and unlawful sharing of personal information with third parties have been reported. Such activities violate users’ privacy and raise the risk of identity theft, financial fraud, and other forms of cybercrime. As Chinese lending apps are international, cross-border data transfers are possible. User data acquired by these apps in India may be transferred and stored on servers outside India, often in China. This adds to the difficulties of data protection because different jurisdictions may have different data privacy laws and regulations. The Chinese government’s vast access and control over data raise concerns regarding the privacy and security of user data obtained by Chinese loan apps. Users could be subjected to unlawful access or surveillance by foreign entities. The data privacy and security concerns stemming from these loan apps in India are significant issue that demands immediate attention. The Indian government has been actively enhancing data protection and privacy laws to safeguard user information from unauthorized access or misuse. The Personal Data Protection Bill, currently under review, seeks to establish comprehensive regulations and mechanisms for protecting personal data, including stringent obligations on data handling, storage, and consent. Indian Government Actions Recognizing the potential risks involved with Chinese loan apps, authorities have taken steps to protect customers, maintain financial stability, and limit the illegal operations of these platforms. The Indian government has banned 138 betting applications

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U.S.-India Relations Forge New Frontiers with Technology and Defense Deals

Prachi Mishra The recent visit of Indian Prime Minister Modi to the United States resulted in several key technology deals, MoUs, and collaborations. With growing penetration of emerging technologies in the socio-economic-political and security fabric of nation states, it is imperative for global leaders to come together and work on challenges that impact everyone. The bilateral ties between the United States and India have taken a significant leap forward with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joe Biden unveiling a series of groundbreaking technology and defense agreements. During his address to the joint session of the U.S. Congress, PM Modi emphasised the global benefits of collaboration on semiconductors and critical minerals, highlighting the role it plays in enhancing the resilience and diversity of supply chains. With defense cooperation blossoming over the years, the United States has emerged as one of India’s key defense partners. Former diplomats and analysts are optimistic about the future of this relationship, foreseeing strengthened ties and more lucrative deals on the horizon. Atul Keshap, President of the U.S.-India Business Council and former charge d’affaires at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi, expects the expansion to extend to military agreements, heralding positive outcomes for both nations, democracy, and the Indo-Pacific region as a whole. The remarkable scope of the announced deliverables has impressed observers and sparked confidence in the trajectory of U.S.-India relations. Some key highlights are showcased below; Institution building – Both President Biden and Prime Minister Modi agree that as their collaboration grows, technology will become increasingly important.  The founding of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) in January 2023 was welcomed by the leaders as a significant turning point for relations between the United States and India.  They urged institutions of higher learning, corporations, and governments to carry out their common goal for the strategic technological partnership.  The leaders reaffirmed their commitment for the United States and India to support an open, approachable, safe, and trust-based digital ecosystem that upholds their shared ideals and democratic institutions. Space – By the end of 2023, NASA and ISRO will have created a strategic plan for working together on human spaceflight. Indian astronauts will receive advanced training at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas, with the intention of staging a cooperative mission to the International Space Station in 2024. This news was applauded by both the US and India. The NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) satellite was sent to the U.R. Rao Satellite Center in Bengaluru, India, and NISAR’s launch from India in 2024 was anticipated.  The leaders praised India’s Space Policy – 2023 and urged greater commercial cooperation between the American and Indian corporate sectors along the full value chain of the space economy, as well as to resolve export restrictions and promote knowledge transfer. The Artemis Accords, which establish a shared vision of space exploration for the benefit of all humanity, were signed by India, and President Biden was very grateful for this.  Tech trade – Both India and the US applauded the interagency-led Strategic Trade Dialogue’s commencement in June 2023 and instructed both parties to make ongoing efforts to resolve export restrictions, look for measures to boost high technology trade, and ease technology transfer between the two nations. Semiconductors and supply chains – A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Semiconductor Supply Chain and Innovation Partnership as a significant milestone in coordinating the semiconductor incentive programs of India and the US was highly talked about. This will support the growth of commercial possibilities, research, talent, and skills. The decision of Micron Technology, Inc. to work with the Indian government to invest up to $825 million in the construction of a new semiconductor assembly and testing plant in India was applauded by the leaders. Up to 5,000 new direct jobs and 15,000 community work possibilities might be created over the course of the next five years thanks to the joint investment, estimated at $2.75 billion. The leaders also praised Lam Research’s proposal to expedite India’s aspirations for semiconductor education and workforce development by training 60,000 Indian engineers through its Semiverse Solution virtual manufacturing platform, as well as a statement from Applied Materials. Telecom – Two Joint Task Forces on Advanced Telecommunications were established by the leaders, with a focus on Open RAN (O-RAN) and research and development in 5G/6G technologies. The Bharat 6G Alliance in India and the Next G Alliance in the United States will be in charge of the public-private collaboration between vendors and operators. With the support of funding from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), both India and the US are collaborating on Open RAN field trials and rollouts, including scaled deployments, with operators and vendors from both markets. The leaders praised Indian businesses’ involvement in the American “rip and replace” program. They supported an ambitious plan for 6G networks that called for collaboration on standards, easier access to chipsets for system development, and the creation of cooperative R&D initiatives. Quantum tech – The creation of a joint Indo-U.S. Quantum Coordination Mechanism to promote cooperation between business, academia, and government, as well as their efforts to reach a comprehensive Quantum Information Science and Technology agreement, was hailed by President Biden and Prime Minister Modi. The Quantum Economic Development Consortium and the Quantum Entanglement Exchange both warmly welcome India’s involvement in order to promote professional and business interactions with other prominent, quantum-minded countries. Programs for quantum training and exchange will be maintained and expanded, and the US and India will endeavour to remove obstacles to cross-border scientific cooperation. The leaders hailed the start of a $2 million grant program under the U.S.-India Science and Technology Endowment fund for the combined research and commercialisation of quantum technologies and artificial intelligence (AI), and they urged public-private partnerships to develop these technologies. Science collaborations – The leaders welcomed 35 creative joint research initiatives in emerging technologies that were supported by the Indian Department of Science and Technology (DST) and the American National Science Foundation (NSF). Together, the NSF and DST will

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