CIHS – Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies

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Trump, Tariffs & Tumult

Uncertainty in global trade got new lease of life with US President Trump insisting on weaponising tariffs with no signs of easing down. K.A.Badarinath President Donald Trump is going bonkers. Tariffs or weapons of mass destruction, it makes no difference to him or the Republican White House that he runs. It’s with the same vigour that deadly arms to different parts of the world are supplied or sold, tariffs slapped or reviewed. In one of my earlier write ups, I did say that Donald Trump would be one of the ‘biggest disruptor’ of global order, be it geo-political, economic and trade relations. This has been proved beyond doubt in recent days. US Supreme Court order of last week may have been just a few hours of pause on weaponised tariffs that’s central to Donald Trump’s economic policy formulation. In those few hours, he switched statutes, juggled acts, related provisions and then slapped 15 per cent import tariffs on each and every country that America trades with, be it an ally or a foe. Well, reciprocal tariff regime of President Trump under his emergency economic powers may have ended. But then, he opened another line to slap tariffs for 150 days pending approval from US Congress. Even as new tariff regime comes into operation beginning Tuesday that are over and above most favoured nations (MFN) duties, uncertainty in global trade continues to reign supreme with nations’ capital across seven seas trying to make sense of the new tariffs, their future and what’s in store for each one of them. By weaponizing tariffs to force both allies and enemies alike into submission, Donald Trump opened a new untested model of building relationships. In the process, President Trump has addressed his domestic white core political constituency who perceive him as a ‘decisive leader’ who’s just going about his job of governing America. From provisions relating to balance of payments, discrimination against American interests to several substantive clauses of Trade Acts in US may be invoked by President Trump to carry forward what he describes as part of his campaign to Make America Great Again (MAGA). President Trump is going gaga to leave his imprint on America’s governance come what may. He shows no signs of backing off any time now. But, what essentially happens is that period of uncertainty would extend, most countries will use this timeframe to recalibrate to redefine their negotiation strategy. While China is better off as it secured one-year negotiation time to sign upon a new trade deal, Bharat has kept its options open and may need more fresh air in the room before a pact is clinched with Washington DC. Now, the proposed18 per cent reciprocal duty to be part of free trade agreement with US becomes infructuous as use of International Economic Emergency powers have been struck down by US Supreme Court. Fresh negotiations for a deal between Bharat and US seem inevitable at much below 18 per cent impost though President Trump continues to insist that nothing has changed for Bharat. Postponing current round of negotiations on FTA for a later date would work well for both India and US as Washington DC.  Secondly, keeping all options open would work in best interest of Bharat and its 1.4 billion citizens. Reworking the entire deal with US in totem over next six months is not a bad idea with ‘strategic autonomy’ being central to engagement. In this context, taking a common approach on US tariffs with like-minded partners as suggested by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva may be explored. Building blocks or unions against America may not be an option for Bharat though the visiting President Lula has postulated such a strategy. Similarly, putting a full stop to purchase of oil and gas from Russia cannot be an option as Bharat continues to diversify its energy basket, sources and undertakes rework of energy matrix. Diversifying its markets for selling its goods and services beyond European Union should be seriously considered by Bharat’s negotiators. Speciality minerals deal with Brazil is a fine example like the ‘strategic relations’ entered into France is unique and specific to Bharat. Similarly, arriving at a working understanding with China be seriously considered notwithstanding the aggressions, transgressions made by the people’s liberation army on the borders. Containing border conflicts, China giving up its falsified claims in Indo-Pacific should be integral to the working arrangement with Beijing. Thirdly, Bharat should aggressively play the role of a peacenik in conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Israel & Iran apart from taking an aggressive ‘zero tolerance’ posture against radicalism, religious terror and overseas interferences on the sly. Fourthly, achieving a fine balance in our global engagement in the medium to long term to safeguard Bharat’s security interests that are non-negotiable should be the objective. Republican or Democratic White House is no patronizing friend of Bharat. Bharat must safeguard her own interests. (Author is a veteran journalist, writer & blogger, director & chief executive at non-partisan New Delhi based think-tank, Centre for Integrated & Holistic Studies)

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Sustain Democratic Credentials!

Life attempt on Donald Trump reflects degenerative US societal structures that have come under stranglehold of jihadists, evangelical extremists, ideologically intolerant terrorists and gun-trotters K.A.Badarinath Terror in every form and format has to be rejected in totality. Geographies notwithstanding, violence and acts against humanity has no place among global communities. Evangelists, Jihadists, Left extremists and private armies have raised their ugly head. They have to be put down in no uncertain terms even if United Nations has dragged its feet too long on terrorism. Ideological extremists, individuals and groups wedded to dreaded gun culture that spread fast in Europe and United States has added fresh dimension to terrorism, terrorists and their tactics. Life bid on Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump in Pennsylvania is just a speck in global terror map irrespective of the motive. Ideological intolerance and political one-up-man-ship manifested in United States that’s on campaign mode has to be rejected once for all. There’s no place for such violence and terrorism in democratic debate to elect the next President in USA, be it democrats or republicans. Prevailing gun culture in US may have had its origins to take on the European settlers and later it transformed to ‘frontier spirit’ in eighteenth century. It’s rather illogical for developed countries that boast of ‘free spirit’ to encourage gun culture of one form or the other within or outside their own territories. Spread of terrorism and violence of different hues and colour have had their roots in this very western culture. Encouraging migration of jihadis in the guise of freedom has taken its toll. Most Western Europe is going through a churn owing to these jihadi elements that have gained firm foothold in the region leading to violent incidents incessantly. Similarly, evangelical extremists enrolled as either democrats or republicans have enhanced their footprint and tightened their grip on socio-economic landscape of United States, its polity, institutions and organizations. Self-proclaimed Left liberalists that take the guise of ‘urban naxals’ in Bharat and eastern hemisphere have huge foundations in Europe and US thereby firmly determining the regions’ policies on migration, citizenship rights to employment. This group has unleashed violence and terror across the globe among academia, intellectuals, scientists, technologists and policymakers thereby breeding ‘intolerance’ of extreme variety. Added to this narrative jihad is the culture of private armies and gangs in the name of Left extremist ideologies and annihilation peddled shamelessly even after having been rejected by global communities. Otherwise, how does one explain as to continued attacks on peace-loving Hindus in several of Western geographies? Why is it that ‘coloured people’ and the Asians have not been left to live honourably in these territories, be it America, Canada, Europe or UK? There’s no plausible explanation for huge number of Muslim jihadists getting into United Kingdom’s Parliament. Left gaining credence in French political tapestry is something unimaginable. It’s only the Americans that need to elect their leader in November 2024 Presidential elections. Global communities can only support and complement these efforts made by US to ensure that political violence, evangelical, jihadists, Left extremists or gun-trotting individuals or groups do not subvert the democratic process. Like foreign powers made desperate attempts to torpedo elections in Bharat earlier this year, it’s eminently possible that aliens meddle with US elections. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently said that there was evidence of China trying to influence US elections as in the past i.e. 2016 and 2020. These inimical forces may do so again this time round. President Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party would never concede to having done it in past or attempting intervention this time round. But, Federal Election Commission’s reports suggest otherwise. Apart from China, several others may be in process of spending hundreds of millions in dollars to influence outcome of the US elections. Coupled with such foreign interference, jihadists, evangelical extremists, gun trotting groups and Left extremists may have a field day. Failure of governance structures in United States to stop these forces is glaringly exemplified by the latest attack on Donald Trump. There’s no place for such machinations in democratic dialogue, elections and sane debate sans intolerance. Restoring credibility and relevance of governance structures in US should become priority of both democrats and republicans. Holding smooth and fair elections is an imperative. Being one of the oldest democracies may not be enough. Sustaining these credentials should be on top of the mind for Americans in general and leadership in particular! (Author is Director & Chief Executive of New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)     

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