CIHS – Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies

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Five Years of Taliban

Afghanistan swings between Stability, Repression and Uncertainty; women face brunt of poverty, limited or no access to food & education. Dr Shambhavi Thite The world witnessed the fall of the Afghan republic on 15 August 2021, with a shocking degree of rapidity. With Taliban fighters marching into Kabul, President Ghani fleeing from his post, and security forces disintegrating along the way, images of scenes from Kabul airport came to symbolize the end of a 20-year Western intervention program. The day was one of victory for the Taliban, marking the success of their long campaign of insurgency, but for millions of Afghans, it was merely the start of a new and uncertain chapter of their lives. Five years on, the state of affairs in Afghanistan is one of great complexity and contradiction. In contrast to the years of widespread conflict that had marked the landscape, much of the fighting has ceased, and Taliban rule has brought them greater territorial control than any other government in recent decades. But far from bringing about peace, freedom and prosperity for Afghans, the cessation of open conflict has resulted in Afghanistan becoming one of the world’s worst human rights disasters, especially for women and girls1, alongside poverty and food insecurity. The Taliban run the country, but they are politically isolated. The most important thing is that there is now an entire generation of Afghan girls who have been growing up under opportunities that their mothers and sisters had dreamt of expanding forever. End of One War Prior to August 2021, Afghanistan had been through almost half a century of violence. The nation had gone through the Soviet occupation, civil war, the first reign of the Taliban, the US-led intervention following the 11 September 2001 attacks, followed by an extended period of insurgency involving the Taliban, the Afghan government and foreign troops. The fall of the regime signalled an end to the majority of these hostilities on a national scale. Frontlines have vanished and the fighting between the Taliban and the former Afghan troops has ended. This was clearly different from what the population had gotten used to for years. However, the lack of war on a national scale does not necessarily imply the coming of peace in its full meaning. Threats of security have persisted, such as attacks by the Islamic State Khorasan Province. Additionally, the relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been strained due to claims of militants’ activities across the border and the presence of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters.2 Essentially, the fear itself has become different. Previously, many Afghans were afraid of bombs, assassinations, and military conflicts by Taliban. Now, under the regime of Taliban, women, journalists, activists, ex-officials and critics of politics have been facing another kind of insecurity, which can be described as restriction, surveillance and narrowing down of the dissident space. Therefore, while Taliban may say that peace was achieved due to the decrease of large-scale internal wars, their claim to bring peace is undermined by the political and social repressions that have occurred under their rule. Women and Girls with no education Few examples can demonstrate the effects of the return of the Taliban as well as the status of women and girls. At the time when the Taliban occupied Kabul in 2021, its representatives tried to assure the international community about their changed attitude towards the issue compared to the one in the 1990s. However, their assurances gradually turned into numerous restrictions on the education, work, and social life of women. Girls could not return to secondary schools, while in December 2022, the ban was put on women going to university. Now, Afghanistan is the only country in the world which does not provide secondary and higher education to girls and women. By August 2026, it was calculated by UNESCO that nearly 2.4 million Afghan girls were deprived of secondary education due to the Taliban.3 This policy is of utmost significance and goes far beyond its applicability to the school room. Education is important for all spheres of the life of the country. Girls who do not receive any education have no chances for getting a well-paid job. Afghanistan may suffer from the lack of trained female teachers, doctors, specialists in other spheres. The UNICEF agency has warned that such discrimination of females may cause long-term economic problems for the country and bring it serious financial losses.4 The impact on people is just as great. While she was only 12 years old when the Taliban regained control, this girl is now 17. Instead of finishing secondary school and preparing for university, girls from this age group have had their adolescent years dominated by waiting for the ban to be lifted. Whereas this policy was described at first by Taliban officials as being temporary, it has become one of the most characteristic aspects of their regime. Furthermore, these restrictions have affected life in public spaces in a major way. The ability of women to work has been hindered in many different spheres, and their movements and participation in society are ever more controlled. Human rights groups say that this policy collection has created a systematic system of discrimination against women and girls.5 The issue now confronting Afghanistan is whether this will ever end, and if so, what sort of damage has already been done before this can happen. Years lost at school can never be reclaimed. The more that time goes on, the greater the risk that Afghanistan loses a whole generation of doctors, teachers, entrepreneurs, academics, and politicians. Economy on recovery path, people still poor The Taliban came into power in a country that was highly reliant on foreign assistance. Following the takeover, the Afghan economy suffered a tremendous economic shock. The level of foreign aid became low, banking became difficult, overseas assets were frozen, and employment prospects deteriorated. The World Bank indicated that the Afghan economy went through a period of dramatic contraction following the Taliban takeover and began to recover slowly.6 Current statistics indicate that the

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Ten point plan to engage with Afghanistan

Taliban may have to sever its links with all terror outfits if development and economic activity has to return. India can play its positive part K.A.Badarinath Afghanistan is in the vortex of terror. If Afghanistan former intelligence chief  Rahmatullah Nabil was to be believed the country is housing most terror groups including Jaish e Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar e Toiba (LeT) that have been operating in collaboration and partnership with Islamabad based Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), dreaded spy arm of Pakistan. All of them have had targeted Indian with help of technology and territory to create havoc in India with an intent to create instability. Shifting bases to Afghanistan would not have had happened without Taliban partnership and consent. Fourth aspect to this terror vortex is Islamic State (ISIS) through its affiliate in Khorasan Province have had accentuated the terror activities in South Asia. Given that the caliphate has virtually collapsed both in Iraq and Syria, ISIS seems to shifted bases too with large centrifuge in Afghanistan. Blow hot, blow cold relationships between different groups of ISIS and Taliban have only turned the South Asia peace situation more volatile. Al Qaeda is yet another significant player in Afghanistan that’s going through the churn. Let’s not forget that Al Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri would not have operated out of Kabul without active partnership with Taliban before the deadly US drone neutralized him. Another angle to this terror vortex is the innovative financing models evolved by these outfits that involve drug trade and money laundering apart from access to drones to undertake targeted operations. When Central Asian intelligence chiefs and security advisors from Kyrgyztan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan met in New Delhi on Tuesday with their Indian counterparts, Afghanistan turning vortex of terror seems to have been analysed at depth. Unless funding channels are cut off, money laundering curbed, drug trade busted and Taliban dissociates itself from outfits of different shades and hues, peace in India’s extended neighbourhood becomes a far cry. Notwithstanding this grim assessment of Afghanistan by the national security advisors and secretaries of security councils, India seems to have taken calculated risk in resuming work on re-building the infrastructure destroyed by United States in the process of its withdrawal. About 20 such projects that were in various stages of implementation and stalled while Taliban took charge of Afghanistan’s governance will be resumed, going by reports. While India does not recognize the Afghanistan government led by the Taliban, its willingness to partner with the country’s people only speaks volumes. While the entire Indian community got driven out of Afghanistan majority of them Sikhs moved out of the country after terror returned following Taliban’s takeover. Barring a few working hands and those keeping guard of Gurudwaras as well as temples, Afghanistan has virtually turned alien to Indians that enthusiastically partnered earlier in the country’s development. Though the ride is bumpy in normalizing relations between Afghanistan’s Taliban and India, economic and development issues would become central to the process that’s painstaking and slow. Even if India moves forward with its development plan for Afghanistan, most intelligence buffs scoff is that New Delhi should not lower its guard anytime soon. First step before resumption of infrastructure projects development, India will have to ensure that Taliban provides a security cover to its engineers, professionals and companies. Secondly, there’s no guarantee that Pakistan will be a mute spectator to India going about methodically to implement stalled Afghanistan projects. Playing foul is in the nature of Pakistan strategists, military establishment and intelligence sleuths that need to be tackled big time. Getting life insurance cover for such an eventuality should be precursor to engagement with Taliban. Thirdly, keeping a tight watch on terror financing in the region would be a big nightmare for the global community having stakes in peace, stability and development of Afghanistan. Fourthly, US President Joe Biden and his security establishment will do well in supporting India’s ‘soft move’ to pursue projects in Afghanistan to generate employment as well as rebuild basic infrastructure. Fifthly, LeT, JeM, ISIS, Al Qaeda and ISI apart from other terror mongers will have to be kept at bay by Taliban if peace and progress has to return to hapless Afghanis. Sixthly, opening trade routes to central Asia will be one way of attracting investments to the country living on crumbs thrown by aid agencies. Seventhly, restoring confidence of Indians especially the large Sikh community to return and live as part of volatile Afghani society is tough but doable way to sustainability. Eighthly, apart from China and Russian diplomatic core, not many have returned to Afghanistan. It can start with India resuming consular operations, flights and connectivity. Ninthly, mobilizing Central Asian neighbours involvement would be in Afghanistan’s interests in development and reviving negligible economic activity in terror torn country. Tenthly, keeping away from ISIS, Pakistani terror outfits and intelligence agencies would work for others also.

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