China Geopolitics International Leadership Policy

Keeping The Window Open!

Delicate balancing of relations between US, China & Russia is test of Bharat’s foreign policy framework that centres on strategic autonomy. K.A.Badarinath Will there be a huge shift in Bharat’s foreign policy framework? Or, possible tilt towards China, Russia conglomeration, a permanent feature? Will this lead to increased distancing between India and US under Republican White House stewardship? What’s in store on geo-political, strategic and economic engagement for Bharat and the world? There are several unanswered and unsettling questions that pop up in inter-personal conversations and on the information highways as one scans on Google, Weibo to Douyin. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China and Japan has set off a flurry of conversations internationally. Both, Beijing and Tokyo are most intrinsic foes that do not have much in common especially after the war leading to Japan’s surrender in 1945. Several questions that analysts, anchors and seasoned newsmen are also awe-stuck given that in the first place he lined up the visits to both China and Japan in one go. Secondly, not only do they keep distance but belong to two diametrically opposite camps but have huge issues in global equations. While China and Russia have had rivalled US-led NATO group, Japan falls into the latter alliance. Thirdly, this visit of Prime Minister Modi is significant in the backdrop of United States President Donald Trump weaponising trade, imposing 50 per cent tariff on Bharat’s goods and services and thereby burning bridges. Fourthly, Prime Minister Modi’s two nation visit gained prominence as the ‘global south’ network seeks to consolidate its position via the Shanghai Cooperation Organization whose twentieth session was held in Tianjin as China holds the rotating chair as of now. Fifth, most analysts think that Bharat’s ‘strategic autonomy’ policy framework is being put to test with re-setting its relations vis-à-vis US and China. Sixth, however, top hawks in Bharat’s foreign affairs department do expect the relations with United States to bounce back to normalcy as had happened in the past after Washington DC imposed unilateral sanctions in aftermath of Pokharan nuclear tests. Seventh, the probability of a ‘delicate balancing act’ that New Delhi would enact with caution but firmness of purpose as its near time posturing without yielding to bullying tactics of US. Eighth, there’s no reason why Bharat should not continue oil trade with Russia or any other country depending on prevailing market conditions. Neither US nor Europe have locus standi to corner Bharat citing oil trade given their own continued ‘lucrative gas deals’ with Russia and its partners. Ninth, Prime Minister Modi’s visit to both Japan and China indicate that Bharat has the depth to manage diversities. For instance, enhancing Japanese investments to US $ 68 billion from $ 34 billion through 170 deals is a big take away for both Bharat and Japan who enjoy strategic and special relationship. This is a firm message for US that sought to dry up the foreign investment pipeline in Bharat to push for a ‘bad trade deal’. By not participating in a significant programme to commemorate China’s victory over Japan is again a big message to Beijing that New Delhi has its friends elsewhere as well. Bilateral summit between Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping has been regarded as pivotal to ‘resetting relations’ as development partners and ‘not as rivals’. While the intent is good, first step has been taken to normalise relations, there are several challenges especially on borders, Belt and Roads Initiative that brings Chinese projects to the doorstep via Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Apprehensions seem to be very high on both over outcome of these meetings even as China and Bharat ready to celebrate 75-years of diplomatic relations. One significant point made by Prime Minister Modi that has gone viral was border peace and tranquillity was like an insurance policy for future enduring relations. Can the dragon and elephant in the room tango seamlessly is a billion dollar question as resetting of relations is attempted. As one Chinese scholar wrote ‘it’s rational choice and shared responsibility for both India and China to reset relations’. A big take away is a meeting between Prime Minister Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin with carpooling and Ridge Carlton delegation level talks happening in a ‘delightful’ atmosphere. The visuals and videos of Modi, Putin traveling in a Russian made car throwing protocols to winds is not something European Union or US will want to watch. Given that US described Russia and Ukraine conflict as ‘Modi’s war’ has had no impact on the two leaders’ summit deliberations that extended a wee-bit. Also, 2025 marks 15 years of Indo-Russian strategic relationship that would come into full play later this year. From Bharat’s perspective, there have been a few takeaways from 20-members SCO summit. Unadulterated condemnation of Pahalgam attack by terrorists from across the borders is what India expected and achieved. Also, expanding trade relations between different SCO member countries with payments squared off in respective currencies is big. This would also mean that increasingly trade would get delinked from US dollar and euro while Chinese Renminbi, Russian rouble and Indian Rupee would gain in terms of acceptability. While the show in China came to a near close, the implications of new found friendship between Presidents’ Xi, Putin and Prime Minister Modi will result in sleepless nights for those in Trump administration and Brussels, housing headquarters of European Union. (Author is Director and Chief Executive of New Delhi based non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies) Keeping The Window Open!

Business Economy Geopolitics Trade World

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Damn EU Oil sanctions!

Strategic autonomy coupled with its right to source crude at affordable prices and quality is non-negotiable. Here’s New India… By NC Bipindra Latest round of sanctions announced by European Union on July 18, 2025, has opened a new chapter in the growing geopolitical standoff between Brussels and New Delhi. For the first time, EU has directly targeted Indian oil trade, specifically naming Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery which is majority-owned by Russia’s Rosneft. The EU sanctions, coming as it does within days of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s warning about secondary sanctions on India, are part of these regional institutions’ crackdown on what it calls indirect financing of Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. At the heart of this issue lies India’s continued and unapologetic purchase of discounted Russian crude. India has been refining this oil and exporting resultant diesel and jet fuel, some of which flows back into Europe. While New Delhi views this as a perfectly legal and economically sound strategy, Brussels sees it as a dangerous workaround that weakens Western sanctions regime. What makes this clash more than a bureaucratic quarrel is its broader significance for global energy markets, economic diplomacy and tests limits of Western pressure in a multipolar world. Why Is the EU Escalating Pressure on India over Russian Oil Purchases? EU wants to isolate Russia economically. India, however, is determined not to compromise its energy security and strategic autonomy, the principles it considers non-negotiable. From European perspective, India’s growing role as a refinery hub for Russian crude threatens to undercut its sanctions framework. Eighteenth package of EU sanctions which includes lowering price cap on Russian crude to about $ 47.60 per barrel and sanctioning over 100 tankers in Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” is aimed at choking off alternative routes for Russian oil revenue. By focusing on Indian exports and targeting refineries like Vadinar, Europe is sending a clear message that it will go after any actor — state or private — that contributes to propping up Moscow’s war chest. What are Its Strategic Imperatives? But India isn’t taking this lightly. Ministry of External Affairs responded swiftly and sternly, calling the EU’s actions unilateral and unjust. Officials in New Delhi accused the bloc of practicing double standards, pointing to Europe’s own imports of Russian LNG and uranium even after war in Ukraine escalated. Energy security, Indian leaders assert, is not just a matter of policy but a constitutional duty, especially for a developing nation with over 1.4 billion people striving for economic growth and social stability. From New Delhi’s standpoint, its trade with Russia is both lawful and pragmatic. Indian officials frequently cite EU Regulation 833 / 2014, which states that once a good is substantially transformed in a third country, it is no longer considered to originate from the sanctioned country. India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar and Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri have made this argument repeatedly, maintaining that diesel refined in India is legally distinct from the Russian crude it was made from. The economic logic behind this policy is also compelling. Minister Puri has stated that importing discounted oil from Russia has saved India billions of dollars, helped stabilise inflation and shielded consumers from worst of global energy shock. In a world still reeling from economic aftershocks of the pandemic and the war, these savings have helped India remain on a steady growth trajectory while other economies faltered. India’s position is also shaped by deeper strategic calculations. The country has long prided itself on its foreign policy of non-alignment, now recast as “strategic autonomy.” This allows New Delhi to navigate complex relationships with both the West and traditional partners like Russia without being forced to pick sides. India’s close defence and energy ties with Moscow continue, even as it deepens cooperation with the United States and European Union in other areas like technology, trade, and counterterrorism. What are India’s Strategic Options? Rather than cave in to external pressure, India has quietly but effectively diversified its oil imports. Over past year, it has increased purchases from Middle Eastern countries, United States, Brazil and new suppliers in Africa and Latin America. This diversification has enabled India to demonstrate that it is not wholly dependent on Russian oil, even as it defends its right to continue buying it. At the same time, India has expanded its investment in natural gas, renewables and long-term energy security. A 15-year LNG deal with United Arab Emirates’ ADNOC, for example, will bring in one million tonnes of gas annually, supporting the country’s gradual shift toward cleaner fuels. India’s resilience is also built on its ability to conduct trade outside of Western financial and logistical systems. Russia has set up rupee-based trade settlements, used vostro accounts through Indian banks and relied on non-Western insurance and shipping firms. This alternative infrastructure insulates India-Russia energy trade from Western sanctions to a large extent and helps maintain stability despite external disruptions. Even as EU tightens restrictions and hints at possible secondary sanctions, India continues to find new export markets for its refined petroleum products. Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America have emerged as key destinations where buyers are less concerned about the origins of crude and more focused on price and availability. These regions offer India a buffer against any loss of European markets, keeping its refineries running and export revenues intact. At the legal level, India has pushed back forcefully the very idea of violating sanctions. Indian legal experts argue that under international law, unilateral sanctions not backed by United Nations are not binding. New Delhi has taken this position consistently and has also pointed out hypocrisy of Europe’s own uneven implementation of sanctions where Russian LNG and enriched uranium remain untouched by embargoes. Behind all this lies a larger philosophical question. Should developing countries bear the brunt of economic disruptions caused by conflicts they did not start and do not control? India has answered this with a firm no. It argues that energy access at affordable prices is a matter of global

Geopolitics International Security War World

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Ukraine Takes Drone Wars to Next Level

From Trojan Horse to pager bombs, Ukraine’s drones have rewritten war tactics while Russia puts up a red face. N. C. Bipindra Ukraine’s audacious drone attacks on airbases deep inside Russian territory are so brazen that such tactics have never been attempted before. The targeting of five Russian airbases — one of them over 4,500 km away from the Ukrainian border has reportedly destroyed over 40 military aircraft, including some long-distance bombers that were tormenting Ukrainians for nearly two years now. The use of cheap, off-the-shelf modified and armed drones is asymmetry in warfare taken to the next level. The drone strikes on June 1, 2025, are now being likened to Israeli Mossad pager bombs that took out a massive number of Hezbollah terror operatives inside Lebanon and the visit of unknown gunmen to wanted terrorists inside Pakistan in recent years. The drone attacks came after a long-drawn-out plan by Ukrainian military along with its intelligence units. The Ukrainians packed the armed drones onto cargo trucks and hid them with wooden planks under the truck roofs. Once the trucks reached too close to four airbases that were targeted — Belaya in Siberia’s Irkutsk region, Olenya in Arctic Murmansk area, Ivanovo Severny near Ivanovo city, Dyagilevo in Ryazan and Ukrainka in Russia’s Far East the drones swarms were unleashed on Russian military aviation assets parked there. While the Belaya base in Irkutsk region was some 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles) from Ukraine’s border with Russia, the Olenya base near Murmansk in the Arctic Circle was more than 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) from Ukraine’s border. The shortest distances covered by drone-carrying trucks were to Diaghilev airbase in Ryazan Oblast, some 520 kilometers (320 miles) from Ukraine and Ivanovo air base for Russian military transport aircraft was some 800 kilometers (500 miles) from the border. These visible distances notwithstanding, Ukraine’s daring drone attacks under Operation Spider Web targeted Ukrainka, the furthest airbase at over 8,000 km in Russia’s East, too far away from the war frontline. In Trojan-horse style attacks, Ukraine launched 117 drones concealed in container trucks, according to one Ukrainian account, striking with precision at airbases across Russia. Ukraine seems to have chosen this covert operation because the Western missiles supplied to it, such as the American ATACMS and European Storm Shadow, lacked the range to reach so deep inside Russia. Ukraine has been using drones against Russian targets, including Moscow, for last three years now. But majority of these drone attacks have been intercepted by Russians, essentially due to low speed of these unmanned aerial vehicles. Operation Spider Web’s audacity essentially played out due to Ukraine smuggling them into Russia and deploying them next to its target sites. Russia, obviously, was complacent with security of at least three of the five air bases, comfortable in the thought that it was too deep inside its territory for Ukrainians to even think of targeting them, a devastating mistake in defence preparedness, when military operations were prolonged beyond what was first envisaged when it began in February 2022. Moscow had presumed its airbases and military facilities deep inside its territory were safe, given their distance from Ukraine. Russia-Ukraine war, progressing for last three years now, has turned the warfare paradigm upside down. Till the Russia-Ukraine war began over Kyiv’s attempt to join the anti-Russia military bloc in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), military thought leadership was talking for nearly two decades about a short, swift and destructive warfare. Russia’s obvious military strength notwithstanding, its military operations did not result in quick surrender of a comparatively weaker Ukraine. The Russian neighbour a nation that was once part of the Soviet bloc held back the military onslaught for a while and by doing so, got the support of its friends in NATO. The US, Germany and other NATO nations sent billions of dollars’ worth arms and ammunition, battle tanks, air defence systems and fighter jets to Ukraine for its David vs Goliath moment. Satellite images, videos and photographs of the damage on these five airbases show Russia’s Tu-160, Tu-22 and Tu-95 nuke-carrying bombers key to their air power were hit badly with plumes of black smoke rising. Among destroyed air assets of Russia were Ilyushin Il-78 airborne refueling aircraft and advanced A-50 early warning and control aircraft a prized possession for airborne intelligence and radar warnings. Though Russia had tried to protect these assets with decoys, these measures failed miserably. Whether Western powers were involved in planning and execution of Operation Spider Web will be known later as more details of Ukraine’s attacks on Russia become public. But what could be worrying both Ukraine and NATO nations would be Russia’s response to Operation Spider Web. Ukraine and its friends in the West would be hoping that Ukraine’s drones circumventing Russian defenses and blowing up their military aviation assets would cause a major psychological blow to Russia’s air force. Truth be told, Operation Spider Web did lift Kyiv’s spirits and it is a dent to Moscow’s morale. But what they may have discounted is that Russia still holds air superiority overall against Ukraine and it may come back to deliver a crushing blow to Ukrainians at a place and time of its choosing, including an unequal nuclear response. If the nukes get involved in Russia’s war, then it could be game over for both Ukraine and NATO. The current Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul have already stalled, with Russian officials signaling no desire for compromise. The Ukrainian drone strike could mean the end of peace with Russia altogether. In response, Britain has announced a £350 million package to supply 100,000 drones to Ukraine by April 2026, reinforcing Kyiv’s growing drone warfare capabilities. In the second Armenia-Azerbaijan war for Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020, Azerbaijani forces widespread use of drones was seen as crucial in determining the conflict’s outcome in their favour. Since then, drone warfare, particularly the asymmetric nature of advantage cheap, easily modifiable unmanned aerial systems bring to the table, has been a major focus

Geopolitics International

Brief – Moscow Diplomacy: PM Modi’s Strategic Engagement in Russia

The official visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Moscow from July 8-9, 2024 was a watershed moment for relations between Delhi and Moscow. In his departure statement, PM Narendra Modi talked about special and privileged strategic partnership between India and Russia. He further stressed the achievements of both nations in the past decade in areas of energy, security, trade, investment, health, education, culture, tourism, and people-to-people exchanges. The strength of strategic partnerships between the two nations was demonstrated by this first bilateral summit since December 2021. The summit gave two leaders an opportunity to evaluate and strengthen bilateral ties. In constantly shifting global dynamics, pressing issues and new areas of collaboration exist for further bilateral developments.

Disinformation Geopolitics Policy Security

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Foreign Funding Has No Place in Democratic Self-Governance!

Vinod Kumar Shukla In Abraham Lincoln’s words democracy is a government of the people, by the people and for the people which supposedly means free from any influence to protect the rights of citizens of democratic self-governance. But foreign intervention has become a big challenge for democratic countries around the world and the US is also not free from it. To facilitate all this, US federal law prohibits foreign citizens and governments from spending in any election in the US. But certain foreign players cocked a snook at law in 2016 and 2020 by spending huge money to influence US elections exposing vulnerabilities of campaign finance laws. Such elements are still at work in the 2024 elections. With the digital world being a reality, laws governing campaign finance systems failed to catch up. Inaction by Federal Election Commission (FEC) and inadequate Electoral Transparency Laws allow foreign players to influence US elections. Around $1 billion “dark money,” has been spent over the past one decade. National Counterintelligence And Security Center tells that foreign interference fall into five categories: Cyber operations targeting election infrastructure; Cyber operations targeting political parties, campaigns, and public officials; Covert influence operations to assist or harm political organizations, campaigns, or public officials; Covert influence operations to influence public opinion and sow division; and Covert efforts to influence policymakers and the public. Narrative of political image; internet communities created for specific electoral goals and extensive use of humour and satire to influence electorates were at play in the campaigns in the US. The US State Department recently alleged Russia for covertly spending over $300 million since 2014 to influence elections in more than two dozen countries which is just the tip of the iceberg. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his three-day visit to China in April 2024 said that there is evidence of Chinese attempts to “influence and arguably interfere” upcoming US elections, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s commitment not to do so. A Microsoft research report published in April 2024 suggests that Russian online campaigns to influence November 2024 US elections geared up over the past 45 days, but the pace is slower than the past elections. Russia-linked accounts are allegedly disseminating divisive content. The observation of Microsoft is that activities of Russia are not as intense as in previous elections but it may increase in the days to come. Online disinformation campaigns are unleashed with posts starting with a whistleblower or citizen journalist posting content on a video channel or social media. That content is mostly taken up by websites like DC Weekly, Miami Chronicle and The Intel Drop. However, the Kremlin has denied any such meddling in November 2024 elections and also in 2016 and 2020 elections. China too has been interfering in the democratic process of countries across the world for a long time which has now become a foreign policy trouble for the US administration especially for those managing the poll process. Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are of the view that China has the intent and capabilities to challenge the US-led world order. But the Biden administration has outlined several reasons to remain engaged with China. This might make sense to US companies working in China and to political realists who don’t see much wrong in working out a way to coexist with another great power. But 81 per cent Republicans, 59 per cent Independents and 56 per cent Democrats see China as a threat giving Republicans a political stick to beat Biden with for going soft on China. As it gives green signal to foreign interests to spend money on elections despite the fact that there is a ban on foreign spending in Federal, State, and local elections. The FEC interprets the ban applicable on contesting elections and letting foreign players pour millions in elections. For the US, dealing with foreign interference in elections has been critical since Russia allegedly worked to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Investigations reveal that Russia targeted Black Americans on social media to disincentivize them from voting in the 2016 election — the tactics were aimed at magnifying race-based societal divisions. Since then, the US adopted a whole-of-government approach against election cyberthreats and foreign interference ensuring that all government agencies work in tandem to track and counter cyberthreats on election-related manipulations to protect voters’ objectivity and election infrastructure. China has been meddling elections in every corner of the globe and the US being the most apparent target for its geopolitical interests. In February 2024, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence stated: “Beijing is expanding its global covert influence posture to better support the CCP’s goals. The PRC aims to sow doubts about US leadership, undermine democracy, and extend Beijing’s influence.” The US media extensively reported that covert Chinese accounts were masquerading online as American supporters of former President Donald Trump, promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the November election. This ‘spamouflage’ prompted Meta to take down thousands of fake Facebook accounts operating in China. But Chinese interference in elections is a significant policy change. In 2021, the US intelligence departments concluded that China would not interfere in US elections. The Chinese decision was attributed to the fact that costs of being caught meddling harms the country of potential benefits as Russia’s efforts to interfere in the 2016 election significantly damaged Moscow’s position and relationship with the US. Still the US authorities were not off guard and were looking at every aspect of foreign intervention knowing well that if there is any gap in the US laws and they remained unaddressed, foreign players can and will exploit them. Plugging loopholes that permit foreign spending and making the source of campaign funds transparent can prevent foreign players influencing the US elections. A strong policy to prevent foreign interference in elections must include updating treatment of digital campaign advertisements and requiring disclosure of the true source of campaign funds. But also spending in elections by

Geopolitics Leadership Policy

532

Strategic Autonomy, Balancing Powers

Indo-Russian summit strengthened special & privileged strategic partnership. India offers to play role of a peacenik in Ukraine conflict Dr. Punit Gaur Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two day visit to Russia has been watched keenly across world capitals. Especially so, given that it is the first bilateral engagement of Modi in his third term and it coincided with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington DC. Modi’s Russia visit to participate in the twenty second annual summit of India and Russia invited sharp reactions from Indian allies and foes alike. From US, European Union to Ukraine, there were comments on what Prime Minister Modi should be doing in Moscow. The Moscow summit is a first after President Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi in 2021 and this engagement has come in the backdrop of ongoing conflict on East European front with Ukraine. Perhaps, global leaders expected serious talks between Modi and Putin that paved for a swift and organic end to the bloody conflict in Ukraine. To their great comfort, Prime Minister Modi did not let them down, Modi made serious attempts to counsel and convince President Putin that peace in the region was not possible with blood on hands. At the same time, Modi played a balancing act not to annoy his host in Moscow who spent most of the two days with Indian Prime Minister. On its part, Keiv expressed its disappointment on Modi’s visit to Moscow though President Zelensky is fully aware of Bharat’s position vis-à-vis Russia. Resilience in relations between the two partners who have evolved relations despite challenges may not have missed Zelensky while stating the obvious on Modi’s Moscow visit. Even White House and European Union may have known the inseparable strategic relations between Bharat and Russia. Several firsts marked Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Moscow. The milestones crossed during the visit underscore profound significance attached to this bilateral engagement. Russia’s highest state decoration, the Order of St Andrew was bestowed on Modi that may not go well with India bashers. This award signifies PM Modi’s efforts to cultivate bilateral relations between India and Russia. In 2000, India took the initiative to commence the cycle of annual summits between two countries at highest level. The tradition of having structured high-level discussions has been easily recognized by both sides as a way to take the bilateral relations to next level each time. India-Russia trade has seen an unprecedented surge to more than US $ 65 billion in 2022 owing to diverse products and services and there’s no denying the fact that energy constitute a big chunk of this bilateral transactions. India’s continued oil and gas dealings with Moscow have not gone well with the Western powers. US $ 100 billion bilateral trade targeted in six years during Modi’s visit is yet again a milestone that can be easily achieved. In recent years, Russia’s Far East and Arctic have drawn India’s attention as possible strategic investment sites. Though national currencies account for 60 per cent trade between India and Russia, the urgency for quicker and more real-time settlement of transactions is growing, especially in backdrop of Russia that got delinked from SWIFT ecosystem. Ignoring the unilateral sanctions on Russia and threats from US, India has not only maintained but strengthened its diplomatic and commercial ties with Moscow. These ties fraught with challenges and underscores the need for more diversified trade. Additionally, India has increased military collaboration with Russia announcing plans to work together on weapon manufacture, joint deployment of troops, vessels and fighter jets and access to military installations. India and Russia call on visa-free travel would significantly boost tourism and people-to-people connectivity. The move to allow students and visitors to use national currency, clearances for MiR cards in India and RuPay cards in Russia is again a significant first. The proposal to open two more consulates in Russia underlines the importance of economic and cultural ties and holds the potential for further economic growth. Bharat’s decision to go ahead with ‘strategic autonomy’ on multilateral issues is what most allies have been trying to come to terms with. When Modi and Putin spoke at Uzbekistan in 2022 during Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) conference, he reportedly told the Russian president, “This is not the time for war.” This stance was reiterated during Modi’s Moscow visit while amplifying Bharat’s policy framework. India adopted an autonomous neutral stance regarding Ukraine and did not sign a joint communiqué at the Switzerland Summit last insisting on conditions for participation of all parties including Russia for lasting peace. Upholding UN Charter’s tenets, especially concerning value of preserving national sovereignty and territorial integrity was also insisted upon in Switzerland as well as Russia now. India firmly rejected the idea of using force to settle disputes. Peaceful negotiation and diplomacy are the most critical approaches for all disputes and this position reflected in Modi’s engagement with Russia. One significant development is Bharat’s willingness and commitment to offer a platform and play the role of a mediator for the peace process has again come to fore. At the same time, Bharat has emphasized that Russia should guarantee safety and repatriation of its citizens who are employed by Russian military ever since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began. President Putin’s ready agreement on this request is a significant take away from Moscow. Russia seeks to create a multipolar world order and India vying for for a key role among Global South countries regard one another as crucial political allies. Russia continues to be an essential supplier of weapons, energy and space technology, all of which India views as necessary for its transition to become a major developed country by 2047. Modi’s trip to Russia not only demonstrates New Delhi’s intention to grow ties with Russia but underscores the potential for significant mutual benefits and the importance of India’s strategic autonomy. (Author is a Research Fellow at Indian Council of World Affairs with focus on Eurasia)

Fact Sheet

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Explainer:India’s energy security

In the last few decades, nation states have become increasingly aware of the limited resources which surround them and have formulated pointed strategies to ensure they have sufficient energy resources to keep their economy running. In the last year, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine deepened, global supply chains of raw energy material have been put under the scanner. Several countries have imposed full or partial bans on Russian oil and gas while some have increased the intake of these Russian materials owing to discounted prices. The West, specially, the US, EU and other NATO countries have been urging other nations, like India to cut trade ties with Russia and to reduce their dependence on Russian crude oil and gas. In this backdrop, as data suggests, India must ensure its energy needs are met timely to sustain its economic growth and accelerate social progress and development. It is essential to analyse the energy requirements of India vis-a-vis the supply of energy raw materials and how India continues to diversify its energy supply. As India becomes the third biggest importer of crude oil from Russia, it is imperative for other nation states to holistically view the Indian energy demand patterns and its production.

Business Media Policy

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Window of opportunity

Russia’s decision to ban oil exports to G-7, EU& Australia, China battling the Covid 19, India enters the big boys ring with an ace! K.A.Badarinath It’s advantage India. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to ban his country’s oil exports to G-7, European Union and Australia beginning February 1 for five months will open new window of opportunities for India in crude oil, refining, consumption and trade. President Putin’s decree was in response to $ 60 per barrel price cap slapped by these countries and groups as a counter to Russia’s campaign in Ukraine. India neither supported the Russian aggression in Ukraine nor has had aligned with Western forces in imposition of price cap on Russian oil. This equidistance and independent policy not only brought India to the centre of oil trade but also provided an opportunity to peddle peace between warring neighbours, Russia and Ukraine. Given that China has been overwhelmed by Covid 19 leading to economic downturn and thereby hitting its energy consumption, India has emerged the biggest energy partner for Russia. US allies, EU and Australia’s decision not only to impose a price cap on oil imports from Russia but bar their shippers, financiers and insurers from backing energy deals with the country has enraged President Putin. From Indian perspective, Russia has already emerged the biggest exporter of oil with over 1.7 million barrels per day during November 2022. Bloomberg has put this figure at 4 million barrels per day that Russia is supplying to India at ‘deep discount’. Both Russia and India have been mum or refrained from making any comment on the price at which this oil trade is happening. These supplies are bound to increase over next six months given the huge un-utilized refining capacities and opening opportunities for exporting end-use hydrocarbons. Independent advisory Standard & Poor Global analysts estimate that two million barrels per day oil would be available from Russia that may be absorbed by India when Putin’s ban on exports to EU, G-7 and Australia kick in. Over 80 per cent of Indian imports from Russia during November 2022 are Urals grade that are currently traded at $ 54 per barrel, deeply discounted and benchmarked to Brent turning the $ 60 price cap a big mockery. Currently, spot market Brent has been traded at a whopping $ 82 per barrel. Two other Russian crude grades, ESOP and Sokol have been quoted at $ 71 and $ 76 per barrel respectively. For last five months, Indian oil imports from Russia have been on surge and constitute about 23 per cent of total import bill that New Delhi forks out. Ukraine conflict has not limited to changes in the geo-political realignments alone. It has extended big time to trade, investments and economic posturing of different countries that have taken a definitive stand on Russia’s unending campaign in Ukraine. India has consciously distanced itself from block-making against Russia. It cannot be construed as unhindered support to Russia in its aggression in Ukraine. Given its delicate relations with Ukraine, India had been on humanitarian aid drive in the war-torn country rummaged by Russian forces bombing and missile attacks. India also donned the role of a peacenik that was willing to make significant negotiations with both Russia and Ukraine to explore peace opportunities. This independent policy stance may not have appealed to US democratic White House led by President Joe Biden. India’s western partners may have to reconcile to the position that Indian policy formulation cannot be swayed by their own block formations. Apart from opportunity to source cost-effective crude and play peacenik role with Russia, India’s third window to open would be exploiting full potential for trade, investment and economic relations bilaterally. This seems to be the next phase in which India and Russian relations have entered. Given the present proclivities, India and Russia may go miles even as New Delhi repositions itself as the powerhouse to become $ 40 trillion economy by 2047. (Author is Director & Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a bipartisan think tank based in New Delhi)

Business Policy World

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India’s Right to Pursue Lucrative Russian Oil Deals

NATO must revisit their unrealistic expectation for New Delhi to cut off ties with Moscow. Local currency oil deals should be the future K.A.Badarinath / New Delhi There’s raging debate over India’s crude purchase from Russia that has invaded Ukraine thereby pitching Moscow against combined might of European Union, UK, the US and other NATO allies. In last four weeks, lot has changed in terms of geo-political scenario especially in Eastern Europe and Baltic region thereby bringing oil trade into big focus. India that pursued a ‘balanced’, ‘independent’ policy puts her on equidistant terms vis-à-vis the sanctioned Russia and NATO allies in the Ukrainian conflict. India’s position has come under enhanced scrutiny of world community owing to this unwavering approach. While overwhelmingly, Indians internationally have hailed a ‘hands off’ policy towards the conflict, humanitarian intervention and ‘Operation Ganga’ have hogged global headlines. In the melee, oil purchases from Russia that may total to two per cent of Indian imports have been questioned by pro-western lobbies. Veteran parliamentarian Subramanian Swamy stopped short of calling India’s policy as nothing short of being ‘tragic’ and ‘unsustainable’. Hawks apart, India’s call to buy about 33 million barrels oil from Russia’s top-end exporter Roseneft is pragmatic and rooted in long term sustainability. On March 9, an internal note got circulated amongst top echelons of Modi government. And, as insiders divulge, March 11, Prime Minister Modi himself took a call to continue with the oil imports from Russia on Indian terms. Russian President Vladimir Putin who’s under increasing isolation seems to have more than accommodated India in the oil and other bilateral trade deals. Offering deep discounts, taking care of insurance costs, safe passage and delivery of crude at Indian ports were some terms that were tempting for India that was battling high oil import bill. Payment in rupee terms for oil or settlements against Russian Ruble at pre-designated rates provides a cushion for Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman whose budget maths would have otherwise gone awry with Brent crude prices touching $114 per barrel on Monday. Also, setting off oil payments against Russian exports especially the rough diamonds is not a bad idea in content and spirit of free trade. Hence, Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, Mangalore Refineries & Petroleum Ltd, and a host of oil importers jumped into the fray to conclude contracts that would translate to billions of dollars for India. It’s not just Russia, the entire middle-east line up has been tapped to conclude deals that could be showcased as to how geo-politics and oil trade were inseparable. With US and UK phasing out hydrocarbon imports from Russia and European Union seeking to fall suit, very handsome deals may still be possible in local currencies to get around the sanctions. For instance, Iran that was touted as the biggest oil supplier to India with unflinching ties, was the fall guy to Donald Trump’s sanctions owing to its nuclear programmes. Only two days back, taking cue from Russian deals, Iran had hinted at resuming rupee – rial designated oil supplies with bilateral trade potential at $30 billion this fiscal. From $17 billion in pre-sanctioned era of 2019, bilateral trade has plunged to a very modest $2 billion this fiscal. There’s no denial that both NATO and other western powers recognize India’s compulsions give its 85 percent crude requirements are met through imports. While the world is critiquing India’s sustained oil imports from Russia, India is all set to increase its share of oil import from the US by 11 percent. Moreover, both EU and the US have till now not considered India’s oil deals with Russia as violating war-related sanctions. But, western lobbyists and the rumour mill around this ecosystem has been working overtime to put India on defensive mode to justify its continued oil deals with Russia. India owes no explanation to anyone but herself. In fact, exploring local currency based oil and other trade deals would encourage multiplicity of such transactions lending variety to these transactions that are done away from referenced US dollar or the Euro. The four largest oil suppliers like US, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria should also explore more innovative deals for India that’s spoilt with varied options. Oil deals – both in spot and futures market—concluded by India cannot be subjected to sanctions that are being used as new neo-nuclear weapons by Western allies. India’s economic and political interests globally are diverse and each response from New Delhi is laced with nuances that cannot be set aside by the world community. It does not necessarily mean that India should not consider other energy options that limit hydrocarbons dependency. The earlier, it’s that much better. (Author is Director & Chief Executive of Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies based in New Delhi. Views expressed are author’s own.) E-mail – [email protected]

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Indian Students Evacuated Amidst War Torn Ukraine

Operation Ganga, largest evacuation exercise since world war two demonstrates the country’s strength, compassion and reach globally Rohan Giri / New Delhi Millions of students and professionals from different countries were stuck in Ukraine during special military operation launched by Russia two weeks back that included massive air raids, rolling out columns of tanks and firing of missiles. Most of these individuals and families were anxious to head back home to escape the Russian operations. But then, the Russian attack left them stranded with airspace is shut, trains suspended and borders sealed. Especially, students that form large chunk of foreign nationals in Ukraine were left with very few options to escape from the military action unleashed by Russia headed by President Vladimir Putin. Prior to the attack, several European, the US and Western countries embassies as well as High Commissions had issued advisories to their respective citizens to leave the conflict ridden country. On its part, Indian Embassy in Ukraine did the same. As the military conflict situation evolved, Indians mostly students studying medicine in several Ukrainian universities found it a daunting task to escape from their cities. While most countries left their citizens to fend for themselves, Indian government along with a host of voluntary and semi-government organizations launched ‘Operation Ganga’, code-named for the biggest evacuation campaign since World War II. Apart from a small Indian Business community in Ukraine, more than 18000 Indian students study medicine and engineering in Ukrainian universities were to be pulled out of military conflict zones especially in Eastern region. Apart from issuing advisories from time to time, India asked its citizens whose stay was non-essential to move out to safe harbours. This was essentially viewed as a temporary measure as the conflict was expected to end in a couple of days. But, as the air raids intensified, bombing continued round the clock and tanks rolled into city after city, it became virtually impossible for Indians to stay back like other foreign nationals. This was the backdrop to launch ‘Operation Ganga’ with Prime Minister Narendra Modi leading from the front. Following the first advisory on February 15, Indian mission not only in Ukraine, but several other countries in Baltic region came in for coordinated efforts to get out the Indians. Before the ‘Operation Ganga’ was launched, several measures were rolled out by Indian government as precursor to a difficult humanitarian operation that was conducted with dexterity and precision. Prime Minister Modi’s personal engagement with his counterparts in Russia and Ukraine worked wonders. A brief timeline of how events unfolded demonstrate the way things were planned to bring Indians back home with very little fuss. Here’s the Timeline: On February 16, Cap on passengers was removed under the Air bubble arrangement. On February 18, Air India flights were announced for evacuation on Feb 22, 24 and 26. On February 20, Air India was considering postponing flights due to no booking from Ukraine. The mission issued the second advisory strongly urging Indian Nationals to leave on the same day. On February 22, a third advisory was issued regarding additional flights. On February 24, the Airspace of Ukraine has been closed, and alternative arrangements are being made. On February 25, the Government of India and the Embassy of India are working to establish evacuation routes from Romania and Hungary. Advised to Print out the Indian flag and paste it prominently on vehicles and buses while travelling. On February 26, those staying in the Eastern area of Ukraine remain in their current places of residence until further instruction. On March 01, successfully facilitated the movement of more than 1400 students out of Zaporizhzhia, city in South-East Ukraine, westwards. On March 02, Urgent advisory to Indian students in Kharkiv for their safety and security must leave Kharkiv immediately. Operation Ganga As the crisis between Russia and Ukraine escalated, Ukraine closed its Airspace for civilian flights. More than 18,000 Indian expatriates, mostly students, were left stranded during the crisis. As students appealed for evacuation from the shelters, the Indian government launched a multi-pronged evacuation plan called ‘Operation Ganga’ to bring its citizens home. The Indian missions in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary were made Arrangements under ‘Operation Ganga’ to bring back Indian citizens from Ukraine. Under ‘Operation Ganga’, Minister of Petroleum, Government of India, Hardeep Puri was sent to Hungary, Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia was sent to Romania and Moldova to bring back Indian citizens; Law Minister Kiren Rijiju in Slovakia and Minister of State for Civil Aviation in Poland VK Singh were sent. Major Evacuation Operations by Indian government The Indian diaspora is the most skilled in the world. In difficult times, the Government of India has started many operations to bring back its people. When the Covid-19 outbreak attacked the world, India’s government launched the “Vande Bharat Mission” to return Indian people who got stucked in foreign lands. As of April 30, 2021, around 60 lakh Indians had been returned through multiple phases of the operation. During the Covid-19 pandemic, Operation Samudra Setu was a naval operation that was part of a national attempt to bring back Indian citizens who had been abroad. It was able to return 3,992 Indian citizens to their motherland by sea. The Indian Naval ships Jalashwa (Landing Platform Dock) and Airavat, Shardul, and Magar (Landing Ship Tanks) took part in the 55-day operation, which covered more than 23,000 kilometers by sea. In March 2016, Terrorist attacks occurred at Brussels Airport in Zaventem and Maalbeek Metro station in central Brussels. A Jet Airways flight brought back 242 Indians, including 28 crew members. The Yemeni government and Houthi rebels were engaged in a conflict in 2015. Thousands of Indians were trapped, and Yemen was cut off from the rest of the world by Saudi Arabia’s declaration of a no-fly zone. India rescued almost 5,600 people from Yemen as part of Operation Raahat. In the wake of the 2015 Nepal earthquake, the Indian government and the Indian Armed Forces launched Operation Maitri, a cooperative relief

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