CIHS – Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies

Date/Time:

Fresh Set of Challenges for Modi 3.0

Khalistanis, Naxalites, Kashmiri subversives gaining legitimacy in Parliament demands fresh thinking and strategy K.A.Badarinath As Bharat’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi readies to take reins at centre for a third consecutive term, challenges, known and unknown may have to be dealt with on priority basis. Commentators of every hue and shade have written copiously on Prime Minister Modi’s tenacity or lack of it to run a coalition government with Telugu Desam and Janata Dal (United) and half a dozen others in tow. Challenges identified here are different and mostly new to tackle right away. For a year, Amritpal Singh, a Khalistani extremist who waged a war on Punjab Police has been put away in Dibrugarh jail of Assam. Waris Punjab De chief who hitherto owned a logistics company in Dubai is being tried for crimes including possible treason after having led a mob on Ajnala police station in Punjab. He’s being tried under National Security Act (NSA) from April 2023. His reported linkages with Pakistani spy agency, ISI to source weapons to spill violence on streets of Punjab are some of the allegations against Amritpal Singh. The 31-year old radical Khalistani separatist will have to be dealt with by Modi government when eighteenth Lok Sabha opens for newly elected members of Parliament to take oath. From Khadoor Sahib in the Punjab, Amritpal Singh was elected a member of Lok Sabha after having trounced his Congress rival. Security forces that laid trap in and around Punjab after the Ajnala incident will now have to provide security cover to the ‘Honourable Member of parliament’. Singh was successful in recent elections with highest majority of 1.97 lakh votes in Punjab. Member-elect from Khadoor Sahib will have to be respectfully escorted by the very security forces from jail to Parliament. Election Commission of India (ECI), Lok Sabha Speaker and the new government apart from courts will have to bear with his idiosyncrasies on Khalistan, the imaginary separate Sikh state. One big positive however is that the avowed Khalistani will have to take a pledge as per Bharat’s Constitution and work within the country’s governance system. Protocols to deal with him will change overnight. Second case will be Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, son of Beant Singh who killed then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi following Operation Blue Star. Sarabjeet is the new Member of Parliament elected from Faridkot and a fundamentalist. Though an independent candidate, hitherto Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa was with Siromani Akali Dal – Amritsar. This party has had Simranjit Singh Mann as its member in Lok Sabha from Sangraur previously represented by Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann. Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa’s plank as an independent in Faridkot was to seek justice for desecration of Guru Granth Sahib in October 2015. On October 12 that year, Sikhs’ holy book was desecrated in Behbal Kalan and a couple of days later two sikh youth were killed. This very is part of Faridkot constituency. Even after election, Khalsa and Mann along with several Khalistani separatists shouted slogans for a separate Sikh state at Golden Temple, the highest seat of Sikh Panth in Amritsar. While Sarabjeet is regarded a fundamentalist, his election and allegiance to Bharat’s Constitution as a Parliament Member may ring in some positivity. But, there’s denying that going forward Sikh panthic politics has come here to stay and traditional Sikh parties like Shiromani Akali Dal will have to make way for new alignments and forces especially aligned with extremist and terror elements globally. Modi government will have to redraw its Punjab strategy in sync with new realities. Third member who could turn tricky for Narendra Modi government is Sheikh Abdul Rashid who’s serving his term in Tihar jail. He’s been elected to lower house from Baramulla after trouncing former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah of National Conference. Popularly known as engineer Rashid, he’s been in high security Tihar jail for over five years in cases relating to money laundering and funding terror in the Kashmir valley from across the border and elsewhere. Oppression, revenge and jail term were emotionally put forth by his sons to garner votes for engineer Rashid. While Rashid’s swearing in as Lok Sabha member would turn an eyeball event, abrogation of Article 370, Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections may come back to focus. Courts have to take a call on his interim bail to facilitate his swearing in. After a gap of 25-years, Communist Party of India – Marxist Leninist (Liberation), Left extremist group will enter the parliament with two  of its members in Rajaram Singh from Karakat constituency. His comrade, Sudhama Prasad defeated BJP minister and high profile R K Singh from Arrah. Both these constituencies are in Bihar. The party that draws inspiration from one of left extremist movement, Charu Mazumdar, has moved into public space from arms struggle and is part of the opposition, Indi alliance. CPI-ML Liberation shifted gears and moved away from Kondapalli Seetaramaiah faction’s Peoples’ War group that still is in the midst of waging a war against the state.  Mainstreaming of naxalites with entry into Parliament and state legislatures is a tribute to Bharat’s democracy. But, spread of Left extremist political ideology overtly may demand a fresh strategy from Modi government. Chandrashekhar Azad alias Ravan is yet another figure from Uttar Pradesh that BJP-led alliance that needs to watch out for.  Chandrashekhar will represent Nagina Lok Sabha constituency in the lower house after having won the seat with a margin of over 1.51 lakh votes. He is regarded as a self-established Dalit leader after having setup the Bhim Army. His activism extends to a decade. On March 15, 2020, Chandrashekhar launched Azad Samaj Party (Kanshiram) to mainstream his political activism overtly. Initially, he looked at a tango deal with Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP). But, Chandrashekhar felt let down when his party was offered just two seats in the Lok Sabha elections by SP. Azad’s direct involvement in Saharanpur violence led to his arrest under National Security Act by the Uttar Pradesh government. Delhi Police denied him

Read More

Think Different, Do Differently

Modi 3.0 may have to extricate itself from incremental expansion of on-going projects, if it were to lead Bharat to exalted developed nation status K.A.Badarinath Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to form a government for record third term in a row with comfortable majority after a tumultuous eight-week long Lok Sabha elections campaign. While Modi 3.0 begins mid-June, there’s huge interest globally on the agenda for the new government. There’s already some spadework done by the present regime on what would perhaps be rolled out in first 100-days of freshly minted National Democratic Alliance government. Once the new government takes charge with a reconstituted team under Prime Minister Modi, political stability at centre and 20-odd states ruled by BJP or its coalition partners is assured.  Unlike several countries that are in the midst of wars, conflicts or political instability, Bharat would stand out as a nation of 1.4 billion people to emerge as the global economic powerhouse and a beacon of hope for global communities. The eight per cent plus growth coupled with stable interest rates and reined-in inflation levels at 4 per cent will serve as backdrop for Bharat to emerge as third largest economy globally surpassing Germany and Japan. After US and China, Bharat will emerge as third largest economy and a hub for agricultural produce, industrial manufacturing, providing services and export cost-effective quality goods and services. In first three years of Modi 3.0, Bharat will not only be valued as US$ five trillion economy, but would well be on way to move up market capitalisation in stocks sweepstakes. Already, both BSE and NSE have reported that market capitalization in Bharat have crossed a whopping US$ five trillion serving as a leading indicator on what’s in store for the economy. First big task for new finance minister to occupy the corner room in North Block would be to present a full regular budget in three months along with blueprint for making Bharat a developed economy by 2047. Opposition parties, especially the Congress, may have scoffed at the idea of ‘developed nation’ tag for Bharat, but putting in place nuts and bolts to go big is something inevitable. A commendable job done by Nirmala Sitharaman is what would come handy for Modi 3.0 while charting its course for attaining the exalted ‘vikasit bharat’ status which is both a commitment and conviction for Team Modi. Cash surpluses of over Rs. three lakh crore, RBI dividend of Rs 2.1 lakh crore and record foreign exchange reserves of US$ 648.7 billion as on May 25 serve as positives for new government to rollout short term measures in its long journey to becoming a developed nation. Even if interim budget expenditure projections of Rs 47.65 lakh crore and gross tax collections target of Rs 38.2 lakh crore are retained, borrowings through bonds and bills may be pruned by third edition of Modi government. Alternatively, retaining gross borrowings at Rs 14.13 lakh crore in 2024-25 will provide enough leeway for the new government to introduce new elements to economic expansion and put it on high growth trajectory of over 10 per cent growth on continuum for three years. A big push to capital spending to create assets across infrastructure areas at Rs 12 lakh crore may become focal point to further Modi government’s campaign to evolve New India along with new jobs, services and opportunities, cater to the aspirational youth that backed BJP-led NDA in the seven phase Lok Sabha elections that ended today. Sticking to fiscal prudence strategy that involves reduced fresh borrowings, lower accumulation of debt and interest payments outgo coupled with serious recalibration of food, fertilizer and oil subsidies may have to continue without any let up. On the parallel, deepening and broad-basing famed growth paradigm with focused development interventions in education, healthcare, housing, water and farm support is what the Narendra Modi government in its new avtar may have to continue. Real challenge will be to lay firm foundation for a ‘new developed’ Bharat. Out of box thinking may propel diversified economic expansion that’s inclusive and target oriented. For instance, can the new government think of 20 new growth centres to take Bharat’s economy to next level? What does that mean? Say for instance, can Sandeshkhali in West Bengal’s Sunderbans area where women faced violence and sexual abuse become new growth centre for women-centric development project? Three crore ‘lakhpati’ didis scheme be housed in Sandeshkhali and spread across Bharat as women’s economic empowerment project of Bharat. Local skills, opportunities and fresh ideas from different states apart from development of eco-sensitive Sundarbans waterfront can be weaved into this signature project of Prime Minister Modi. Comprehensive economic uplift project for tribal communities can be centred in Bastar or Narayanpur in Chattisgarh where both Left extremism and rampant religious conversion of vulnerable tribal communities happen routinely. Can a growth centre be planned and implemented for fisheries development with coastal Kerala or Andhra Pradesh being its headquarters? Should fisheries be managed and regulated from Delhi? A fresh economic growth model around fisheries and coastal areas development can be evolved to give thrust to these areas. If Hyderabad is developed as defence technologies and original manufacturing hub, can’t ports based economic development model be designed in Odisha? No new project, scheme or public sector company should be allowed registration in national capital region or the metropolis. Twenty-odd new thematic growth areas can be considered to spread development projects to nook and corner of Bharat. If required, some ministries, departments, state-run companies, autonomous bodies may have to be located away from Delhi. Modi 3.0 can even design twenty hubs with spokes and spines each for start-ups, different financial services etc as decentralized economic growth centres. Why not relocate agriculture ministry to say Amritsar or Ludhiana without making hue and cry about it? Should comprehensive hills development project not be run out of Uttarakhand or Himachal Pradesh? There’s very little utility in keeping environment and forests ministry housed in Paryavaran Bhavan located at posh Jor

Read More

Unleash India spirit!

Changing geo-political equations & global order has etched a key role for India as Vishwa Guru & Mitra, the most dependable ally K.A.Badarinath Prime Minister Narendra Modi put up a comprehensive socio-economic development plan before 1.4 billion Indians while delivering his tenth address from ramparts of iconic Red Fort. Given the grand plan that encapsulates his over 90-minutes address on Tuesday, political interpretations are bound to be made given that elections to four state legislatures followed by Lok Sabha polls were scheduled before June 2024. While the messenger in Modi arguably did a fantastic job of presenting broad contours of 25- year work plan, the leader in him hit the right note on three evils that the country faced. Presenting a case for ‘developed India’ by 2047, the year country celebrates her centennial post-independence from imperialistic British forces, Modi did not mince words. In the process, he has served an early notice to four large global economies that also consider themselves as invincible. A vision document being readied by ruling BJP and the central government would roll out specifics in this plan. This document has been in the works last one year when 75-years commemoration campaign was kicked off by Modi. Given that 2023 is first of 25-years ‘amrit kaal’, emphasis on grand ‘long viewfinder’ works well and timely. The resolve to build on substantive achievements last ten years got reflected amply on socio-economic front to upend India to third position as largest growing economy with a wide diverse market for goods and services.   Fight against corruption, dynastic politics and appeasement line he pushed very hard is in continuation of BJP and NDA closing ranks to not cede even an inch of political space for 26-parties opposition. These three evils found mention prominently even in his reply to a no-confidence motion that was moved by some opposition parties earlier this month. Targeting a few families that run their political parties as personal fiefdoms or family enterprises, Prime Minister seems to have taken the fight across fence. Guarantees on political stability would be a big factor given resounding victory that Modi got in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha. And, continuation of the ten-year work done is one clinching issue politically as well as on economic front. Political instability is one big risk that goes against the very grain of investments, buoyancy in markets and economic expansion. From the opposition perspective, political stability is one thing that cannot be taken for granted given inherent contradictions within fragile political formations that form part of anti-Modi rainbow network Recent successes for Congress in Karnataka and Aam Aadmi Party winning big in Punjab may have enthused opposition ranks leading to Patna and Bengaluru conclaves. But the socio-economic model of ‘freebies in Punjab and guarantees in Karnataka’ are unsustainable. Already, Karnataka has made more than clear that it would hardly be able to mobilize funds for even taking forward development projects erstwhile BJP government has begun. Internecine power struggle within the Congress and inter-party rivalry with the 26-party conglomeration is bound to take investors dizzy. Yet another commitment made by Narendra Modi was to guarantee against corruption that’s eating into vitals of the Indian polity. By and large, the ten year Modi rule at centre was corruption free notwithstanding charges of ‘suit boot sarkar’ made by Congress to pull down the BJP and tarnish with its own black brush. In states, public sector companies, banks and award of contracts, most players across spectrum have still been susceptible and amenable to personal gratification. Through the guarantee, Modi may have to extend his fight against corruption to states and then down below as districts administration continue to be marred by shady deals that need closer scrutiny. Trust in his leadership and BJP-led NDA model of governance is something that he has earned in last ten years. This trust needs to get extended downwards under his close watch to ensure that Hindu-centric voters will continue to be with Modi-led alliance. Mistrust with Congress regimes was what made ten years rule of Manmohan Singh unsustainable.  Trust factor with the voters, partners, investors and all stakeholders in the next government may have to be worked on faster by Modi’s strategists. Narendra Modi seems to have banked heavily on spirit of India that has stood test of times. When he invoked ‘unstoppable’, tireless and does not give up’ spirit of hoi polloi, he made an instant ‘emotive connect’ with those tired of being ‘held up or pulled back’ in realizing their aspirations. BJP, NDA and Modi’s commitment to the concept of ‘vishwa guru’ or attaining numero uno status for India globally is fairly well established. Extending this further, Prime Minister Modi portrayed India as a ‘vishwa mitra’, a bankable friend, dependable partner and stakeholder in human development. His talk of a new ‘global order’ and ‘geo-political’ alignments is rather real given sea changes experienced in aftermath of cold war. Post-Covid 19, the much anticipated re-working of global order is expected to roll out in near future. And, this provides perfect opportunity for India to play a key responsible role internationally moving away from reticence of the past by ‘minding its own business’. This futuristic articulation to position India on global matrix both on geo-political issues and socio-economic plane would go well. (Author is Director& Chief Executive, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a non-partisan think tank based in New Delhi)

Read More

‘India deserves a much higher, deeper, wider profile & global role’

Prime Minister Narendra Modi harps on ‘unprecedented trust’ as he emplanes to US for showcasing India’s smart and soft power prowess. By Rajesh Roy, Brendan Moran and Gordon Fairclough NEW DELHI—Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said ties between New Delhi and Washington are stronger and deeper than ever as India moves to secure what he sees as its rightful place on the world stage at a moment of geopolitical turmoil. “There is an unprecedented trust” between the leaders of the U.S. and India, Modi said in an interview ahead of his first official state visit to Washington after nine years in office. He hailed growing defense cooperation between the two countries as “an important pillar of our partnership,” which he said extends to trade, technology and energy. In Washington this week, Modi is expected to complete deals to manufacture jet-fighter engines in India to power advanced light combat aircraft, and to purchase high-altitude armed Predator drones from the U.S. in a multibillion-dollar agreement to boost surveillance efforts over the Indian Ocean and near its disputed border with China in the Himalayas. As the West squares off against Moscow and, increasingly, China, New Delhi stands to gain. Washington has courted India hoping that it will be a strategic counterweight to Beijing. The U.S. has moved to deepen defense ties even as New Delhi makes large purchases of Russian oil at discounted prices, providing financial support for Moscow as it wages war in Ukraine. Modi—who gives many speeches but fewer news conferences and interviews—spoke with The Wall Street Journal about India’s foreign policy, its efforts to build a more modern and sustainable economy and a range of other topics in a nearly hourlong interview in his office at his sprawling official residence in the heart of New Delhi. Overall, Modi’s message was that—from India’s role in global politics to its contributions to the world economy—the country’s time has come. He sought to portray New Delhi as the natural leader of the global South, in sync with and able to give voice to developing countries’ long-neglected aspirations. “India deserves a much higher, deeper and wider profile and a role,” said Modi, wearing a yellow kurta and light-brown jacket. Peacocks squawked in the garden outside. The 72-year-old leader called for changes to the United Nations and other international organizations to adapt them for an increasingly multipolar world order and to make them more broadly representative of the world’s less-affluent nations and their priorities, from the consequences of climate change to debt reduction. Unlike the vision of nonalignment advanced by Indian leader Jawaharlal Nehru in the early years of the Cold War, Modi’s foreign policy is one of multiple alignments, seeking to advance India’s interests in partnership with a range of global powers, including those in conflict with each other. Modi is one of India’s most popular prime ministers. He and his Bharatiya Janata Party won nationwide elections in 2014 and 2019 by comfortable margins. With national elections due next year, Modi’s approval rating is high. Political opponents and human-rights advocates have accused Modi’s party, which has roots in Hindu nationalism, of fostering religious polarization and democratic backsliding, pointing to issues such as restrictions on the press and removal of the special status of Indian-administered Kashmir to more closely integrate the Muslim-majority region into the country. Modi said that India not only tolerates but celebrates its diversity. “For thousands of years, India has been the land where people of all faiths and beliefs have found the freedom to coexist peacefully and prosper,” he said in a statement. “You will find people of every faith in the world living in harmony in India.” On the economic front, Modi has won praise for eliminating bureaucracy, relaxing rules and opening the way for more foreign direct investment. The country has surpassed China as the world’s most populous. What’s more, its population is young, promising a significant demographic dividend. The government has invested enormously in education and infrastructure, and it is poised to gain as multinationals look to diversify manufacturing and supply chains in an era of geopolitical tension. A new Apple store drew a crowd in Mumbai in April as the company expanded its investment in India. PHOTO: DHIRAJ SINGH/BLOOMBERG NEWS Apple is among the companies making significant new investments in southern India, with supplier Foxconn Technology Group planning new facilities in the states of Karnataka and Telangana and expanding iPhone production in the state of Tamil Nadu. “Let me be clear that we do not see India as supplanting any country. We see this process as India gaining its rightful position in the world,” Modi said. “The world today is more interconnected and interdependent than ever before. To create resilience, there should be more diversification in supply chains.” One thing India and the U.S. share are relationships with China that have grown increasingly fraught in recent years, marked by deepening military and economic rivalries. For India, that challenge is at its doorstep, with rising tensions centering around its decadeslong dispute with Beijing over the 2,000-mile border separating the two countries, known as the Line of Actual Control. The countries have been building infrastructure and deploying more troops in the region since a deadly 2020 clash in the Himalayas. Indian officials have blamed China for violating border agreements, and the two countries have held 18 rounds of military talks since 2020 aimed at preventing the dispute from spiraling into wider conflict. “For normal bilateral ties with China, peace and tranquility in the border areas is essential,” Modi said. “We have a core belief in respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity, observing the rule of law and peaceful resolution of differences and disputes. At the same time, India is fully prepared and committed to protect its sovereignty and dignity.” China’s Defense Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment sent via the State Council Information Office. In drawing closer to Washington, the Indian government has had to overcome deep skepticism about the U.S. that dates back to the Cold War, when New Delhi became more closely aligned with Moscow after Washington declined to supply arms to India in 1965. The U.S. instead became a military backer

Read More