CIHS – Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies

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Strategic Autonomy: Time Tested Doctrine

Strategic Autonomy: Time Tested Doctrine

Bharat’s allies and foes may have to reconcile to freedom of choice exercised by New Delhi for global good and humanitarian push K.A.Badarinath ‘Strategic autonomy’ has been at the core of foreign policy doctrine pursued assiduously by Bharat’s government with both friends and foes alike. India’s foreign minister Subramanyam Jaishankar described this as ‘freedom of choice’ which Bharat exercised time and again to signal that it was above narrow partisan political blocks. These blocks only led to destabilization and restlessness globally. Some analysts viewed this as polite rebuff to US Ambassador to India Eric Micharel Garcetti who trashed ‘strategic autonomy’ stance of Bharat following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow and meetings he held with Russian President Vladmir Putin. Eric Garcetti erroneously claimed that had there was nothing like strategic autonomy during a war in obvious reference to conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Garcetti, a democratic politician, considered close to President Joe Biden and former Los Angeles Mayor, has not been known as an all-weather friend that India looked for. Garcetti’s nomination to the key position was delayed as confirmations did not come by from the Senate Selections Committee. Garcetti was finally confirmed to India in a split verdict of 52 – 42 votes on March 15, 2023. India’s foreign office rebuff was important given that Garcetti was personal choice of President Biden for the posting in New Delhi notwithstanding the host’s reservations. Bharat also pushed back US Under Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Donald Lu who aired his disappointments and purported ‘tough conversations’ that Washington DC had with New Delhi on Prime Minister Modi’s engagements in Moscow. These ‘blips’ or ‘aberrations’ between two strategic partners could have been easily avoided only if Washington DC appreciated the logic, reasoning and rationale in New Delhi engaging with President Putin at bilateral and personal level. Subramanyam Jaishankar thoughtfully used his visits to Japan and Laos to drive home the point on ‘strategic autonomy’ that Bharat has carefully crafted in a multi-polar world balancing out compulsions of energy resources management and strategic positioning by India. For last two-odd years, Bharat had exercised utmost caution while taking her stand on Russia – Ukraine conflict or Hamas invasion of Israel last October 7 forcing the latter to reportedly assassinate Hamas political chief Ismail Hanieh in Tehran. While West Asia and Eastern Europe is simmering in a crucible with US and European allies taking a unilateral, Bharat continued to be the only major power that pursued a saner line.  Bharat has had rejected all forms of terrorism and violation of basic rights for people in each of these countries. Significant message that Bharat has for global leaders and communities through her independence doctrine is that there was space for dialogue, reconciliation and living together sans bloody conflicts that continue to linger. Bharat’s allies in US across Democrats and Republican parties will have to appreciate, respect and allow for soft manoeuvring by New Delhi treading her own path. White House under Democratic Presidential nominee Kamala Harris or Republican supremo Donald J Trump will have recognize that views of strategic allies like Bharat will have to be respected rather than sparring in public with imbecile or immature public display of ‘one-upman-ship’. Multilateral powerful groups like Quad or BRICS should serve as forums for respectful and equitable engagement between equitable partners rather than expecting subservience that’s symptomatic manifestation of a unipolar supremacist mind-set that doesn’t fit into present day matrix. Bharat’s strategic autonomy exercised with responsibility to protect her interests is known to leaders in Washington DC, newly elected Labour leader Keir Starmer in UK or freshly anointed Heads in European capitals. Bharat’s allies should not underestimate the long swift swirl of Red dragon in Beijing that may attempt an iron grip for China and Communist Party of China in global affairs. (Author is Director & Chief Executive at CIHS)

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De-risking to defanging currency, trade deals

Rupee, UPI, desi currency trade has taken world by storm. Prime Minister Modi thrust in France, UAE paying handsome dividends K.A. Badarinath Defanging to de-risking global trade and currency deals for India is what Prime Minister Narendra Modi achieved in his visit to France and United Arab Emirates (UAE) last week. Agreements concluded during Prime Minister Modi’s visit not only make trade and currency deals more advantageous from Indian perspective but also reflect the country’s growing confidence in shaping commercial partnerships across geographies. Otherwise, how would one explain taking United Payments Interface (UPI) and RuPay to France or for that matter, UAE?  In his West Asia sojourn, UAE and India’s decision to denominate bilateral trade in Rupees and Dirhams is again a big departure from dollar or Euro centric transactions. This is over and above bringing the UPI and RuPay to Abu Dhabi. Currency transactions at retail level on Indian digital platforms to large rupee denominated trade deals have been described by some analysts as ‘de-dollarization’ of Indian economy. But, India’s latest thrust on currency and trade front are more to do with her growing economic and investment muscle and acceptability rather than moving away from the US greenback or euro. Indians visit to the Eiffel Tower in France by purchasing tickets in Rupees may be simpler way of presenting the implications of latest agreements for hoi polloi. The deal involving Lyra of France and National Payments Corporation of India to become operative in September this year would mean much more than paying for tickets at tourist spots in rupees. Wider and willing acceptance of Indian Rupee in Europe is due to financial innovation making Indian digital payments platform UPI secure and affordable across continents. The decision to link United Payments Interface with UAE’s Instant Payment Platform (IPP) makes the country’s digital payments foray wider and deeper in West Asia. In fact, the deal between RBI and UAE’s Central Bank allows for RuPay and UAE Switch interoperable. India’s structured financial messaging system (SFMS) will go to UAE thereby instantly recognizing Indian debit and credit cards. Larger implication is that holding Indian Rupee by central banks and dealers globally by value and quantity will go up many-fold in few years from now. Also, internationalization of Indian rupee is on the verge of becoming a hard reality. Rupee denominated export and import of goods and services internationally will make the Indian currency more tradable given the large ticket size of these transactions. France and UAE are not isolated cases in accepting Rupee denominated trade deals, UPI, RuPay or Rupee Switch. Singapore’s PayNow had done a deal with NPCI to embark on UPI platform. It moved Indian digital payments platform to South East Asian one step further. In May this year, India and Russia had announced making payments easier through RuPay and Mir cards in both countries. UPI of India and Bank of Russia’s Faster Payments System are being linked to make seamless real time transactions in Rupees and Roubles a reality apart from deal on financial messaging systems.  Non Resident Indians (NRIs), businessmen, tourists and students in ten countries including Australia, Canada, US, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Kingdom apart from others could either receive or send money once their domestic bank accounts were linked to their international phone numbers. As per independent consultancy Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC), one billion rupee denominated transactions per day is estimated to happen in next two years through United Payments Interface and RuPay network. Already, over 73 per cent non-cash transactions in India have gone digital on UPI. Over 18 countries have either opened or in the process of opening Vostro accounts to settle trade deals in rupees or their respective local currencies moving away from US dollar, euro, UK pound or any major international currency. Latest to join this jamboree is Indonesia whose finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati firmly stated in Gandhinagar indicated that bilateral trade will happen in Rupees and Rupiah. Bangladesh went one step further and began trade settlements in Indian rupees. This was limited to US dollar till last week. India’s trade valued at US $ 1.6 trillion in last one year seem to have shaped the country’s strategy on cross border currency deals and rupee transactions. And, Indian strategy of gaining acceptability for rupee is however distinctly different from China’s ‘wolf worrier’ investment and loans strategy to gain dominance. Significant progress made by India on rupee’s acceptability and trade transactions cannot however sidestep the challenges in making it part of the reserve currency basket. Current strategy adopted by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Indian government has the potential to deliver notwithstanding its limitations. Unless rupee is increasingly used in current account transactions like investments and capital flows, internationalizing the currency may hit a wall. Secondly, as the RBI working group recommended, Rupee must get included in Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies maintained by International Monetary Fund (IMF) to hold its assets. Recalibration of Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) may have to be considered for hastening the path to internationalizing rupee. There has been serious discussion amongst BRICS countries to settle trade related transactions within the group in local currencies. A conscious decision on use of member countries’ currencies to square off trade deals would translate to democratization of economic world order. For the stakeholders, reduction in transactions costs, limiting the foreign exchange risks and more safeguards to the trade deals will be accrued apart from huge optimization in capital costs. India accounting for a modest two per cent of global trade in value terms limits internationalization of rupee. Similarly, there may be little to modest enthusiasm to denominate Indian debt globally in rupee terms instead of dollar. Internationalizing rupee and turning it to a currency in reserve is a long haul project for which a firm foundation has been laid by the Modi government. (Author is Director & Chief Executive of non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies based in New Delhi)

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