US, China with diverse agendas coupled with religious extremist forces in Islam and evangelists may shrink open space to operate for Bharat that has big stakes in Bangladesh
K.A.Badarinath
The big boys are at play. Bangladesh government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus is bound to be pulled apart by both United States of America seeking to establish a military base in South Asia and Chinese Communist Party led by President Xi Jingping that’s seeking unquestioned dominance in Asia.
Jamaat-e-Islami and Bangladesh National Party (BNP) led by Khalid Zia would play willing tools in the big boys power play with Pakistan reduced to a lackey of minor variety.
There’s denying that Muslim Brotherhood that’s globally dreaded would complicate the equation with its Islamist – Jihadist agenda on Bharat’s Eastern frontiers. ‘Razakars’ would become handy frontline private army in the hands of jihadist Muslim leadership internationally. There have been reports that already these Razakars have taken over civic policing as an occupational army of zealots.
Well, tasks for Bharat are cut out after Sheikh Hasina’s government fell last week, Awami League purged, safe exit to her provided in a swift deal and Army took reins in a coup.
Though interim government headed by Yunus and a battery of over dozen advisors have taken charge, nothing seems to have changed on the ground while Army calls the shots.
Bangladesh’s under-belly has several layers that must be understood before Bharat gets to the drawing board to establish a working relationship with the new Army controlled, Yunus fronted regime given that Chinese, US and Pakistan deep state haggling for their pound of flesh.
The ‘transitional’ Yunus regime got legitimacy as Democratic White House was first to recognise the government. Secretary of State’s spokesperson was drafted to convey that US was ‘ready and looked forward’ to working with Dhaka under Yunus.
St Martin Island also known as ‘Narikel Jinjira’ (Coconut Island) or ‘Daruchini Dweep’ (Cinnamon Island) off-the-Chittagong coast may be eyed by US to set up a military base to lord over both Bharat and her expansionist neighbour China. Direct US presence in the region may not be encouraged or welcomed by Bharat given the strategic implications. Also, Bharat would get cut off virtually from entire South East Asia in terms of trade, investment and services.
Church driven ‘Project K’ to carve out an artificial autonomous region christened as ‘Kukiland’ will come to the forefront. Church’s fancy idea of a separate Christian state encompasses parts of Bangladesh, Burma and Bharat’s Manipur and Mizoram. This Christian agenda is expected to get complete backing of White House under President Joe Biden or his possible successor Kamala Harris. Even if Donald Trump upstages the democrats and gets elected in November 2024 elections, this agenda may get going.
Even if general elections in Bangladesh were to be held anytime now, a pliable government in Dhaka is what Washington DC may expect to see in the saddle given that Awami League is virtually out of power play.
On the other hand, China would try and get Teesta River Project and other infrastructure ventures that provide Beijing proximity to India’s ‘chicken neck’ area. Weeks before Hasina government fell, US $ two billion worth interest free, concessional, commercial loans apart from grants were reportedly promised by China after a meeting that Bangladesh Prime Minister had with President Xi.
On face of it, funding infrastructure projects either directly or through Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) may not just be limited to investment push. Instead, it will result in strategic issues for Bharat giving China advantage at her doorstep.
Third dimension to Bangladesh story is the Jamaat-e-Islami backed by Pakistan and part of larger Muslim Brotherhood going berserk would pose serious challenges to Bharat. Jamaat pursuing genocide of Hindus in Bangladesh has been widely reported. CIHS has meticulously documented these grave crimes.
Jamaat is popular as ‘congregation of Muslims’. Known as the largest Muslim formation founded in 1975, Jamaat was banned from political participation by Bangladesh Supreme Court in 2013 citing its opposition to religious freedom or practice of faith.
Within its ambit were other organizations like Al – Badr, Al – Shams and self-styled peace committee that formed the jihadist network. All these are pronouncedly anti-Hindu, Buddhists and Christians in Bangladesh.
Evangelists and Islamist forces are expected to be on collusion course given their extremely divergent agendas for Bangladesh. Bid to carve out an autonomous Christian area by extreme evangelists with backing from US may be at odds with ‘theocratic’ ‘Islamist’ state that Jamaat may like to evolve Bangladesh into. Conflict between evangelists and Muslims may turn rough reported from several cities in European countries.
Contrarian geo-political forces in China, US and religious extremism donned by evangelists and Jamaat leaves very little space for open, flexible and forward thinking democratic agenda in Bangladesh. This is a heady mix in which India will have to tread carefully to safeguard her geo-political and strategic interests apart from that of Hindus and Indian origin people living in Bangladesh.
Rightly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphasised that Yunus government in Bangladesh must take steps to protect Hindus lives, properties, businesses especially women that have been targeted by Jihadists.
For Bharat, dealing with influx of Bangladeshis fleeing the violence torn country may be a big priority apart from safeguarding her people in Bangladesh.
Secondly, New Delhi may have to swerve through muddy waters that have become playground for both US and China apart from minions like Pakistan.
Thirdly, recalibrating equations with Dhaka given an array of forces from far-left extremists, religious jihadists to military establishment may pose a big challenge.
Fourthly, pursuing her agenda of peace, tranquillity and prosperity in South Asia may not be easy for Bharat.
Fifthly, smoothening relations with Bangladesh may turn tricky while former Prime Minister and senior Awami League leader Sheikh Hasina continue to be respected state guest in Delhi.
Sixthly, working with likeminded stakeholders to ring in democracy with all forces in tact may be a tall order.
Seventhly, relatively tension free Bangladesh border front may have to be guarded 365 days round the clock given that many in the country have lost hope and may opt to cross over for ‘greener pasture’ in India.
Eighthly, India may have to keenly watch possible threats to her demographics in the Eastern states owing to political, social strife and economic downslide in Bangladesh.
A fresh beginning has to be made for lasting relations between Bangladesh and India with open mind.
(Author is Director & Chief Executive of non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies)