Population Conundrum: Policy options
Population Prospects 2022 of United Nations has estimated that on November 15, 2022 there will be eight billion people on the planet that would move up to 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100. Since 1990, the global average lifespan has increased by over nine years and in 2019 it was 72.8 years.[1]
As of now, India is the world\’s second-most populous country after China. In 2023, India is projected to surpass China as most populous country. As per the 2011 census, population of India was 1,210,569,573.[2] Statistical errors notwithstanding, private consultancies have projected India’s population to have already surpassed that of China.
UN report cited vulnerabilities to infrastructure, jobs, economy, governance, social cohesion and other factors that emerged owing to growing population. Various countries faced social issues such as child or early marriages, migration, lack of family planning, etc., as well as imbalance in population that resulted in concerns like religious conversions, inequality, social violence, etc. All of these strongly correlated with population\’s growth. In the past, population imbalance has brought about division in numerous nations including India.
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are immediate neighbours to India. Infiltration has been seen in border regions as no uniform population policy was pursued by the Indian Government.
In response to a query in the Parliament, Indian Ministry of Home Affairs has stated that the border between India and Bangladesh has seen greatest documented incidences of cross-border infiltration into India. In a written reply, Minister of State in the Ministry of Home Affairs, Nisith Pramanik said, “128 infiltrations reported along Pakistan border, 1787 along Bangladesh border, 25 along Nepal border, 133 along Myanmar border while nil at China and Bhutan border.”[3] Five Indian states of West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Tripura surround Bangladesh whose people made most attempts to infiltrate into India. The invasion drives illegal immigrants and alteration of geographical boundaries resulting in serious national security concerns.
The imbalance and population growth can be addressed through public education and stricter regulatory enforcement. To produce a uniform population policy, the government and policymakers must adopt significant and pervasive actions. In addition, it\’s essential to make sure that the laws that are already in place are being adhered to.
In a recent national meeting held in Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh in India, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) – a Hindu centric organization –Sarkaryavah (General Secretary) Dattatreya Hosabale expressed concern about India\’s population imbalance and emphasized the importance of strict enforcement of anti-conversion laws and formulation of a uniform population policy.[4]
CHALLENGES DUE TO POPULATION IMBALANCE
One of the top risks is the enormous population expansion apart from infiltration, illegal entry of people from neighbouring countries in search of livelihoods, work opportunities and permanent settlement.
The threat has increased owing to political and social instability that fuelled imbalanced and unregulated population growth.
Figure: It shows the growth rate and imbalance in population.
The percentage of population increase for major religions has decreased over the past ten years (2001–2011). Hindu population decreased from 19.92% to 16.76% over the previous decade while Muslim population decreased from 29.52% to 24.60% (Even after this, the Muslim population is growing at the fastest rate) over the same period. Sikh population growth was 8.4 percent compared to 15.5% for Christians. Jainism is at 5.4 percent and Buddhism is at 6.1 percent.[5]
Though overall population growth slowed down, uneven expansion of population from some religions remains problematic. Governments and society must therefore confront the issue of demographic imbalance in unison.
Religious Conversions
After independence, the Indian Parliament proposed a variety of anti-conversion laws, but none of them were adopted. The Indian Conversion (Regulation and Registration) Bill was initially submitted in 1954 with the intention of ensuring \”the licence of missionaries and the registration of conversion with government officials,\” but the bill was unsuccessful in gaining the support of majority members.
After that, in 1960, the Backward Communities (Religious Protection) Bill was presented with the intention of prohibiting Hindus from converting to \”non-Indian religions,\” which the bill defines as include Islam, Christianity, Judaism, and Zoroastrianism.
The Freedom of Religion Bill was introduced in Parliament in 1979. Lack of political support prevented Parliament from passing these measures which called for \”formal limitations on inter-religious conversions.\”[6]
According to Indian Union Law Minister in 2015, a law against coerced and fraudulent conversions could not be passed at the national level. It is also claimed that the Constitution gives state the authority to uphold law and order. Such legislation may, however, be passed by state governments.[7]
| S. No | State | Implemented (as on) |
| 1 | Odisha | 1967 |
| 2 | Madhya Pradesh | 1968 |
| 3 | Arunachal Pradesh | 1978 |
| 4 | Gujarat | 2003 |
| 5 | Chhattisgarh | 2006 |
| 6 | Himachal Pradesh | 2006 |
| 7 | Jharkhand | 2017 |
| 8 | Uttarakhand | 2018 |
Source: Library of Congress[8]
Several states established \”Freedom of Religion\” legislation to ban religious conversions carried out through coercion, fraud, or inducements. These laws prohibit conversions to other religions.
Migration
The fundamental purpose of human life is survival and not rivalry. The same is true of migration; it involves more than just human movement from one place to another. People move for a variety of reasons, including work, psychological pressure, safety and security concerns, identity issues, etc. The imbalance in religious population makes their lives and existence insecure. In the concept of migration, employment comes second; everyone wants to exist. The minority population in the area is seriously threatened by population imbalance.
According to migration statistics (Census), India had 5.1 million migrants out of the total population in 2001who had crossed international borders with or without valid papers. They came from the eight nearby nations in almost 97% cases (including Afghanistan). Of these, nine lakh were from Pakistan and 30 lakh were from Bangladesh.[9]
Main motivation for migration from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh was security worries brought on by religious practices, not work. The \”vagueness\” of social identity, inability to make decisions about life goals, morals, standards and lack of socially acceptable positive patterns had an impact on self-realisation.
Infiltration
India has particular and major issues due to peculiarities of its borders. India and its neighbours have15,106.7 km of land borders and 7,516.6 km of coastline.[10]
Due to infiltration, India faced several challenges including illegal immigration. The native population of the several states are comes down (table below) and such states like Kerala, Assam, Goa and west Bengal have a very high non-Hindu population.
| State | Hindu Population | Other population | Dominant Religion |
| Jammu & Kashmir | 28.4 % | 71.5 % | Islam |
| Lakshadweep | 2.77 % | 97.2 % | Islam |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 29 % | 71 % | Christianity |
| Mizoram | 2.75 % | 97.2 % | Christianity |
| Manipur | 41.3 % | 58.6 % | Christianity |
| Meghalaya | 11.5 % | 88.4 % | Christianity |
| Nagaland | 8.75 % | 91.25 % | Christianity |
Source: Census 2011[11]
Majority of documented incidents of illegal migration were from Bangladesh as well as other neighbouring nations. Resources have come under stress that has all the potential to lead to economic instability in India.
Due to the local population being reduced to minority in many states as a result of illegal immigration, there have been ethnic tensions in the north-eastern states of India. For example, Infiltration was used as a strategy by external elements to provide the North Eastern states insurgents with arms and ammunition. Left-wing extremist groups also received outside support through infiltration.
Cross-border terrorism supported by Pakistan which is mainly committed through infiltration primarily targeted India. Infiltration is a challenge to India\’s security which requires a comprehensive response focusing on both the socioeconomic and security infrastructure.
RSS & Population
India faces a serious threat from its population imbalance, which has severely harmed the socio-cultural fabric and security of the country\’s borders and northeastern states. Since passing a resolution in 2015 urging the government to \”reformulate the national population policy keeping in view the availability of resources in the country, future needs, and the problem of demographic imbalance and apply the same uniformly to all,\” the RSS\’ position on the issue remained consistent and clear.
Resolution 2015
The RSS adopted a resolution titled \”Challenge of Imbalance in the Population Growth Rate\” during its national gathering, Akhil Bharatiya Karyakarini Mandal (ABKM) in October 2015. The ABKM is highest decision-making body of the RSS.
The resolution said, “Steps taken to control the population of the country have yielded adequate results during the last decade. But in this regard, the ABKM is of the opinion that the severe demographic changes brought forth by the analysis of the religious data of Census 2011 highlight the necessity of the review of population policy. Vast differences in growth rates of different religious groups, infiltration, and conversion resulting in a religious imbalance in the population ratio, especially in border areas, may emerge as a threat to the unity, integrity, and cultural identity of the country.”
“Although Bharat (India) was one of the early countries in the world to announce as early as in 1952 that it would have population planning measures, it was only in the year 2000 that a comprehensive population policy was formulated and a population commission was formed. The policy aimed at achieving a stable but healthy population by the year 2045 by optimising the fertility rate to the ideal figure of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR). It was expected that, as this aim is in accordance with our national resources and expected future requirements, it will be uniformly applied to all sections of society. However, the National Fertility and Health Survey (NFHS) of 2005–2006 and the 0–6 age group population percentage data by religion in Census 2011, both indicate that the TFR and child ratio is uneven across the religions. This is reflected in the fact that the share of population of religions of Bharatiya origin, which was 88 percent, has come down to 83.8 percent while the Muslim population, which was 9.8 percent, has increased to 14.23 percent during the period 1951–2011,” it added.
Furthermore, “In addition to that, the rate of growth of the Muslim population has been much higher than the national average, in the border districts of border states of the country like Assam, West Bengal, and Bihar, clearly indicating the unabated infiltration from Bangladesh. The Report of the Upamanyu Hazarika Commission, appointed by the Hon. Supreme Court, and several judicial pronouncements from time to time have also corroborated these facts. It is also a fact that the infiltrators are usurping the rights of citizens of these states and are becoming a heavy burden on the already scant resources, apart from creating socio-cultural, political, and economic tensions.”
The resolution addressed the connection between demographic inequality and religious conversions, paying particular attention to the Indian northeastern states.
“The religious imbalance of population in the North Eastern states has assumed serious proportions. In Arunachal Pradesh, the people of religions of Bharatiya origin were 99.21 percent in 1951. It came down to 81.3 percent in 2001 and to 67 percent in 2011. In just one decade, the Christian population of Arunachal Pradesh has grown by almost 13 percentage points. Similarly, in the population of Manipur, the share of religions of Bharatiya origin, which was more than 80 percent in 1951, has come down to 50 percent in 2011. These examples and pointers of unnatural growth of the Christian population in many districts of the nation indicate an organised and targeted religious conversion activity by some vested interests.”
“The ABKM expresses deep concern over all these severe demographic imbalances and urges the government to reformulate the national population policy keeping in mind the availability of resources in the country, future needs, and the problem of demographic imbalance, and apply the same uniformly to all.”[12]
CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
- Social cohesion is based on achieving a delicate population balance.
- The foundation of a society in which various sorts of identities, modes of worship, and sects may have significant dimensions is built on the basis of gender, economy, and geographical function.
- Coordinating these actions with the populace is therefore crucial. The social order may be upset if there is no coordination.
- There are two ways to implement something. First, by raising public awareness, ensuring that existing laws are effectively implemented and lastly by enacting specific regulations.
- Consequently, an equitable population policy must be evolved in order to ensure that the country\’s demographic imbalance and future needs are taken into consideration.
- A national consensus on the population policy must be achieved through multi-stakeholders consultations at all levels.
- Unprecedented downturn in demographic, collapse in fertility rates and consequent population greying pointed to in the UN report cannot be ignored.
- Government of India sample registration survey of 2000 has reported serious findings that the country’s fertility rate dropped to two that is much below the replacement level. Even marginal improvement in fertility growth was due to earlier momentum seen in India.
- Huge drop in fertility levels across India may also throw up its own set of challenges in harnessing the demographic potential and turning herself as the powerhouse of global human resources.
- Share of working age (15 – 65 years bracket) population globally has been on a slide after having peaked at 66 per cent in 2012.
- As per estimates, India is passing through a demographic transition that denotes 70 per cent as its working population age before the fertility decline catches up.
- This is one time window of opportunity to cash in the demographic dividends which has not been tapped till now. Positive economic impact of this demographic dividend seems limited in the case of India vis-à-vis its global peers.
- One big challenge that India faces as of now is the lower than global average of labour workforce in the working population component. While the global aggregates of labour workforce works out at 59 per cent, in India’s case it has declined to 46 per cent in 2021.
- As per World Bank data, women’s participation in labour workforce in India was further dismal at 19 per cent as against global average of 46 per cent.
- Policy options vis-à-vis population should attempt at complete cashing in of demographic dividends available right now which requires massive skills development and judicious deployment of human capital.
- The new policy should address serious issues like religious imbalance in population numbers, migration, and infiltration and thereby devise strategies to retain and embellish social cohesion and sustainability.
[1] https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf
[2] https://censusindia.gov.in/nada/index.php/catalog/42604/download/46256/Census%20of%20India%202011-PCA%20Release.pdf
[3] https://www.mha.gov.in/MHA1/Par2017/pdfs/par2021-pdfs/ls-07122021/1538.pdf
[4] https://www.ptinews.com//news/national/conversion-infiltration-causing-population-imbalance-says-rss-leader-hosabale/438215.html
[5] https://www.census2011.co.in/religion.php#:~:text=Population%20Growth%20rate%20of%20various,%25%20(1991%2D2001).
[6] https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/ll/llglrd/2018298841/2018298841.pdf
[7] https://perma.cc/D4JD-SEBB
[8][8] https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/ll/llglrd/2018298841/2018298841.pdf
[9] file:///C:/Users/Dell/Downloads/DROP_IN_ARTICLE-08.pdf
[10] https://www.mha.gov.in/sites/default/files/BMIntro-1011.pdf
[11] https://www.census2011.co.in/religion.php
[12] https://www.rss.org//Encyc/2015/10/31/rss-resolution-census-2011-eng.html